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TODAY IN HISTORY
October 8, 451: The Council of Chalcedon opens, with the aim of settling the Christological debates embroiling Christianity. The council repudiated the 449 Second Council of Ephesus and adopted a dyophysite position on the nature of Christ, declaring that Jesus had two natures, one fully human and one fully divine, joined in a “hypostatic union.” This was a major theological debate at the time and it would continue to be an issue all the way up to the Arab conquests of the 7th century, which saw several communities that had rejected Chalcedon come under Islamic rule.
October 8, 1856: Chinese authorities storm a British-flagged ship, the Arrow, in Canton harbor on suspicion of piracy. What probably didn’t seem like a big deal at the time wound up kicking off the Second Opium War, which ended with China ceding additional territories to Britain’s colony at Hong Kong and parts of Outer Manchuria to Russia.
October 8, 1912: Montenegro declares war against the Ottoman Empire, beginning the First Balkan War. The Ottomans, outmanned and outgunned by the Balkan League (Bulgaria, Greece, Montenegro, and Serbia, backed by Russia), lost decisively within a matter of months. The Treaty of London, signed on May 30, 1913, ratified Albania’s independence, with its borders to be determined by the “Great Powers” (Austria-Hungary, Germany, Italy, Russia, and the United Kingdom). The treaty also forced the Ottomans to cede the rest of their Balkan territory to the League and give up the island of Crete, which promptly formalized its annexation to Greece. Bulgaria emerged as the new dominant Balkan state, which created an imbalance of power that ultimately led to the Second Balkan War.
MIDDLE EAST
LEBANON
The Israeli military (IDF) reported on Thursday that one of its soldiers was killed and three others wounded in an apparent vehicle accident in southern Lebanon. Elsewhere, Reuters reports on the conditions facing residents of Zawtar al-Gharbiyah (“West Zawtar”) following their return to that village back in July:
Dodging the broken glass carpeting her home in southern Lebanon, Mariam al-Yaghi exited onto her upper balcony and pointed. A few hundred metres away was a sight the 67-year-old had grown accustomed to: military vehicles moving through the adjacent Lebanese village, still occupied by Israeli troops.
At night, Israeli soldiers patrol so close to Yaghi’s home in West Zawtar that she can hear their voices. By day, she is often trailed by a small Israeli surveillance drone as she toils in her garden. Booms echo throughout the morning as Israel’s military destroys homes in the surrounding occupied towns with controlled detonations and bulldozers.
“We hear them all the time from that house over there with the tile roof. We hear their voices yelling, the tanks when they move this way and that way. We hear all of that. They’re very close to us, but we’re sitting here and we’re not scared. Never,” Yaghi told Reuters.
Israeli troops withdrew from West Zawtar in July, the first test of a US-backed “pilot zone” plan for Israel to withdraw gradually from southern Lebanon, in exchange for the disarmament of the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah.
But two months on, no further “pilot zones” have been agreed and residents of West Zawtar say their village is no blueprint.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The IDF killed at least seven people across Gaza on Thursday. Most (six) were killed in multiple attacks in parts of northern Gaza while one was killed in the central Deir al-Balah region.
The UK consulate in East Jerusalem is being downgraded to a diplomatic mission after an apparent compromise between the UK and Israeli governments over its status. The Israeli government was planning to close the consulate altogether to retaliate for the UK’s ban on imports from West Bank settlements, an act that could have triggered the expulsion of a number of Israeli diplomatic staffers from the UK. Instead the facility will remain open albeit at a much lower staffing level, with 20 UK personnel leaving the country and only a handful remaining in the mission to support UK nationals traveling to the region as well as diplomatic relations with the Palestinian Authority. UK officials say they intend to keep pressuring their Israeli counterparts to re-expand the mission.
YEMEN
There were a number of apparent Ansarullah attacks on the Saudi capital, Riyadh, on Thursday, including another strike on the King Khalid International Airport, though the extent of any damage or casualties is unknown at present. The attacks did at least temporarily shut down operations at the airport, contributing to Ansarullah’s effort to effectively close Saudi airspace by targeting the kingdom’s airports. At least two international airlines, Germany’s Lufthansa Group and Air India, have suspended flights to and from Riyadh.
Syrian officials are denying reports that Damascus is sending military forces to fight in Yemen at Saudi request. Those denials aren’t exactly definitive, however, and don’t appear to rule out the possibility that Damascus will decide to send force to Yemen at some point. That said, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa may feel some domestic pressure to stick to his stated policy of not getting involved in foreign conflicts — it would be at the very least a bit awkward for him to send soldiers off to fight in Yemen when he’s been unwilling to use them to defend southern Syria against Israeli occupation, for example. There is a possibility that the Saudis could recruit mercenary fighters from Syria, maybe with Sharaa’s blessing, but that doesn’t appear to be happening as yet.
IRAN
Contrary (at least for the time being) to reports that the Trump administration has been preparing for an imminent (as in a matter of days) return to war with Iran, Donald Trump took to social media on Thursday to declare that “we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd.” He claimed that this is because of recent “productive discussions” between the US and Iran. There is no evidence of anything of the sort but that sounds better than just acknowledging that he doesn’t want to restart the war until after people have voted. Of course, Trump being Trump, for all I know by this time tomorrow the US may be bombing Tehran again.
In other items:
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center reported on Wednesday that a tanker off the coast of Qatar had been “struck by multiple projectiles,” according to Al Jazeera. There were casualties but I haven’t seen any specifics on that front. There are also reports of ships possibly striking mines in the southern channel of the Strait of Hormuz though details there are unclear. These incidents continue the surge in strikes on commercial vessels in and around the strait, though the Qatari incident stands out a bit as that vessel was pretty far from the waterway. These recent attacks, coupled with those reports I mentioned earlier that the war might be about to resume in earnest, have pushed oil prices back up past the $100 per barrel threshold, which may help to explain why Trump made his post on Thursday.
Unspecified attackers killed an Iranian police officer on patrol in the southeastern city of Zahedan on Thursday. That city, like the rest of Sistan and Baluchistan province, often sees violence from multiple directions including Baluch separatists, jihadists, and criminal networks.
The US Treasury Department blacklisted 27 entities, 22 vessels, and six people linked to Iran on Thursday. Most (especially the vessels of course) appear to be connected to Iranian efforts to export oil and oil products despite US sanctions.
ASIA
MYANMAR
In what could be the feel-good story of 2026, Reuters is reporting that “the Trump administration has begun direct talks with Myanmar’s military-installed government,” which it characterizes as a “sharp reversal” of Washington’s previous effort to pretend to care about democracy and human rights in that country. Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research Michael Vance is reportedly spearheading this contact, which has thus far focused on securing the release of imprisoned US national Adam Castillo — whom Myanmar authorities freed last month — and closing down online scam operations in Myanmar. If the engagement continues it could expand to cover other potential areas of collaboration — in particular involving Myanmar’s copious critical mineral reserves.
SOUTH KOREA
The South Korean government recalled its ambassador from Kyiv on Thursday amid a diplomatic spat over the transfer of two captured North Korean soldiers to Seoul. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke publicly about that transfer last month and as it happens the South Korean government did not appreciate his candor. Ukrainian officials insist that they had not agreed to keep the transfer on the down-low so Zelensky didn’t do anything wrong, but it doesn’t sound like the South Koreans are accepting that justification.
On a somewhat related note, South Korean officials are pledging to investigate and potentially take legal action over reports that some 176,000 metric tons of oil and fuel products were shipped from South Korea to Russia on “sanctioned tankers” in July and August. At least some of those shipments would presumably violate international sanctions and South Korea’s own Russia policy.
AFRICA
SUDAN
The United Nations Security Council voted on Thursday to extend its current embargo on arms entering Sudan’s Darfur region for at least two more months. In doing so it rejected a US push to expand the embargo to cover the rest of Sudan that was opposed by veto holders China and Russia. This is the second short term extension that the council has passed (it agreed to a one-month extension in September, hence Thursday’s vote) in hopes that more time will allow The Gang to reach consensus on a wider embargo. Though as World Politics Review’s Lesley Anne Warner points out, it probably doesn’t matter all that much. The Darfur embargo has done precisely nothing to prevent arms from entering Darfur and even if the council were to extend the restriction to the rest of Sudan there’s no reason to believe that members would be able/willing to enforce it.
GUINEA-BISSAU
Guinea-Bissau’s ruling junta is postponing the December 6 general election that was supposed to return the country to nominally civilian governance. Interim Prime Minister Ilídio Vieira Té made the announcement on Thursday without offering a new potential date. He claimed that the country’s political parties were not yet prepared to contest the election and that candidates had missed an October 6 deadline to register for the ballot. Former President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, who was ousted in last year’s military coup and fled the country, had been planning to return to run for president again but the junta barred him from reentering the country last week.
MALI
To I assume no great surprise, the Malian military and its Russian “Africa Corps” auxiliaries retook the northern town of Kidal following the withdrawal of Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) rebels on Tuesday. There is some strategic value to holding Kidal, which holds the status of would-be capital for the FLA and its secessionist vision, but as AFP suggests the bigger effect for Mali’s ruling junta is probably the symbolism of regaining control of a town it lost to the FLA and Jamaʿat Nusrat al-Islam wa’l-Muslimin jihadists back in April. That regime gets to demonstrate that it is not, as it may have appeared a few months ago, on its last legs.
Interestingly, AFP is also reporting that the FLA may have withdrawn from Kidal at the urging of the Algerian government, which is on good terms with the rebels and is trying to improve relations with the junta in Bamako. This latest development may even open up the possibility of Algeria stepping in as a mediator between the junta and the FLA.
NIGERIA
A special forces unit killed at least 25 Islamic State West Africa Province fighters in repelling an assault on its base in northeastern Nigeria’s Borno state on Tuesday night, according to the Nigerian military. There were casualties on the military side but authorities have not released any figures as far as I know. Separately, gunmen in northwestern Nigeria’s Zamfara state attacked a military outpost on Monday and reportedly killed at least 25 soldiers. Sources who spoke to Reuters are apparently characterizing the attackers as “bandits.”
ETHIOPIA
Drone strikes presumably by the Ethiopian military targeted Eritrean soldiers in the Tigray region overnight, after eyewitnesses in the city of Adigrat reported seeing Eritrean forces moving through that area on Wednesday. There’s no word as to casualties but the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data monitoring group says that the attacks were heavy enough to force Eritrean units to withdraw to the north and possibly all the way back across the border.
ZAMBIA
Following the AP report on Tuesday that the Trump administration had backed off of its demands for patient data and samples as a component of a new health aid agreement with Zambia, the Washington Post is reporting that the administration also dropped its demand for favorable mineral rights arrangements. Both of those demands had sparked opposition from Zambian officials and were criticized publicly by Zambian Foreign Minister Mulambo Haimbe earlier this year. The US is contributing a bit over $1.5 billion to what is supposed to be a $3.6 billion program over five years, which is an increase in the amount of aid it was offering (around $1 billion) earlier in the negotiations.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
In Russia-related news:
Ukrainian drone strikes killed at least two people in Russia’s Belgorod oblast on Thursday. Another Ukrainian drone strike set fire to a data center belonging to the Russian tech giant Yandex in Ryazan oblast overnight. This is apparently the first time the Ukrainians have targeted one of these facilities. There were no casualties but Yandex (which is often called the “Russian Google”) did report significant damage to the facility and to its operations, which likely means that the Ukrainians will attempt similar attacks on other data centers within the range of their weapons.
The UK government blacklisted 38 entities, ships, and people on Thursday mostly (allegedly) connected to the transport and sale of Russian oil and/or Russia’s arms manufacturing industry. Five of the entities are accused of helping the Russian government to dodge Western financial sanctions.
The Russian government is insisting that reports of a second possible case of plague connected to a research lab in the city of Irkutsk are “false information,” as Kremlim spokesperson Dmitry Peskov put it on Thursday. One researcher at that facility died last month possibly of pneumonic plague, though that’s unconfirmed and both the US government and the World Health Organization have been pressing for more information from Moscow.
Reuters reported on Thursday that US envoy Jared Kushner has been negotiating with Russian officials about a potential US investment in rebuilding and reopening the Nord Stream pipelines that sent Russian natural gas to Germany prior to the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It’s unclear how much of an appetite there is for this in Europe and in particular Germany, which would have to participate to make the project happen. But the far-right Alternative for Germany party, which leads opinion polls though Germany’s next federal election doesn’t have to take place until 2029, is apparently supportive. Kushner supposedly believes that this sort of commercial project can buy peace in Ukraine, though whether he really believes that or just wants a high-minded justification for what would otherwise be a publicly unpalatable investment scheme is unclear.
UKRAINE
A Russian bombardment hit two buses in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk on Thursday, killing at least 33 people. Later in the day a drone strike killed two more people in the same city while Russian attacks in other parts of the country killed at least three people, pushing the two day Russian death toll across Ukraine to at least 78, with another 215 wounded. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on the US government to “open” Ukraine’s access to the Starlink satellite network to allow it to locate and target missile launchers inside Russia.
AMERICAS
VENEZUELA
On the corruption front, a new Washington Post report highlights the extent to which people in Donald Trump’s orbit are hoping to cash in on the now US-controlled Venezuelan oil sector:
As the long-moribund energy sector in Venezuela, now largely under U.S. control, prepares for a potential gold rush, experience in Washington has become a new currency for those seeking advantage, according to investors, former U.S. officials and others in Venezuela’s business community.
Companies and investors are eager to hire those with recent access to the White House, knowledge of the administration’s Venezuela policy or contacts, these people say. And lobbyists, consultants and former government officials from both major U.S. political parties are descending on Caracas on behalf of new clients or businesses.
This report on former U.S. officials pursuing new private-sector roles in Venezuela is based on interviews with more than a dozen people, including current and former U.S. officials, investors and other members of Venezuela’s business community. Eight of those people were familiar with Jensen’s new role. Most spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
It is common for former officials to take on private-sector roles in industries related to their government work, particularly in defense. But the transformation of the South American nation into a virtual U.S. protectorate has created an unusual opportunity for those with experience working on Venezuela within the U.S. government.
UNITED STATES
Finally, Foreign Policy’s Van Jackson sees signs of “fascist geopolitics” in the Trump administration’s approach toward the Americas:
On March 5 in Florida, Washington assembled the full complement of pro-U.S., right-wing Latin American states for a confab called the “Americas Counter Cartel Conference.” Sweating before a crowd of officials from Argentina and Honduras but not Mexico, and from Ecuador and El Salvador but not Brazil, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared: “Trump has drawn a new strategic map, from Greenland to the Gulf of America to the Panama Canal and its surrounding countries. At the Department of War, we call this strategic map the Greater North America.”
In the popular mind, fascism is thought of as a domestic political project. But fascist great powers of the 20th century all championed imperialist campaigns in their regions that were distinct in their violent ambition as compared to their liberal imperialist counterparts. Scholars like Paul Sweezy and Aimé Césaire even saw fascism as a mutation of imperialism. Fascists and imperialists alike engage in military buildups, expand territory through conquest, construct exclusionary spheres of influence with other great powers, and impose settler colonialism and unequal exchange on foreign territories. Fascist foreign policy is imperialist. But it also has a violently counterrevolutionary edge.
MAGA can be understood as an elite counterrevolutionary project that serves the interests of capital by using the state to impose violence on its enemies and redistribute wealth upward. The goal is to overturn the legacy of the New Deal order and the civil rights that came with it. MAGA’s Greater North America is the overseas extension of this project: providing aid to reactionary governments, subverting progressive and socialist ones, and repressing organized labor by any means across the hemisphere.
hey, could you please reverse the "freewall" thing? it blocks the way i usually read the newsletter (RSS feed) and I don't think there's any way to get substack to send your feed an un-walled version even if you're subscribed