World roundup: October 30 2025
Stories from Pakistan, Mali, the Netherlands, and elsewhere
You’re reading the web version of Foreign Exchanges. If you’d like to get it delivered straight to your inbox, sign up today:
TODAY IN HISTORY
October 30, 1270: The Eighth Crusade reaches an ignominious end outside the walls of Tunis. French King Louis IX, a Crusading icon despite the less than successful outcomes of both of the expeditions he led, was convinced by his brother, Charles of Anjou, that besieging Tunis would be the first step toward defeating Mamluk Egypt and securing the Holy Land. Charles of course had personal reasons for wanting to attack Tunis, whose ruler was a wayward vassal of Charles’ Sicilian kingdom. Unprepared for the hot Tunisian environment, Louis’ army was ravaged by dysentery and the king himself died in August. Charles took command and eventually agreed to lift the siege in return for trade concessions.
October 30, 1340: What would prove to be the final Muslim attempt to halt the Christian conquest of Iberia ends in failure at the Battle of Río Salado outside the town of Tarifa. An army from Marinid-ruled Morocco had arrived in Iberia earlier in the year and besieged Tarifa as part of an overall effort to relieve the beleaguered Emirate of Granada, the last Muslim polity on the peninsula. A joint Castilian and Portuguese relief force was able to cut off the Marinid-Granadan supply lines and then decisively defeat the besieging army.
October 30, 1918: Ottoman leaders sign the Armistice of Mudros, ending their involvement in World War I and ultimately consigning the empire to extinction.
MIDDLE EAST
LEBANON
Israeli soldiers raided a “municipal building” in the southern Lebanese border town of Blida on Thursday and killed a municipal worker in the process. The Israeli military (IDF) later claimed the raid was intended to “destroy [Hezbollah] infrastructure” and identified the worker as a “suspect” and “threat.” The raid prompted protests in Blida, with residents blaming the Lebanese army and United Nations peacekeepers for failing to protect them, and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun ordered the army to “confront any Israeli incursion” moving forward. That could mark a significant shift from the passivity with which the Lebanese government typically deals with IDF attacks, though “confront” could mean many things in this context.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
A major Washington Post report has found that the US State Department is aware of potentially “hundreds” of Israeli human rights abuses in Gaza:
A classified report by a U.S. government watchdog has found that Israeli military units committed “many hundreds” of potential violations of U.S. human rights law in Gaza that would take the State Department “multiple years” to review, according to two U.S. officials who relayed the details to The Washington Post.
The findings by the State Department’s Office of Inspector General mark the first time a U.S. government report has acknowledged the scale of Israeli actions in Gaza that fall under the purview of Leahy Laws, the landmark legislation that bars U.S. security assistance to foreign military units credibly accused of gross human rights abuses.
U.S. officials, who discussed details of the report on the condition of anonymity because the contents were classified, said the watchdog findings raised doubts about the prospects for accountability for Israel’s actions given the large backlog of incidents and the nature of the review process, which is deferential to the Israel Defense Forces.
“What worries me is that accountability will be forgotten now that the noise of the conflict is dying down,” said Charles Blaha, a former State Department official in charge of the office that implements the Leahy Laws, who was told about the report.
The Leahy Laws theoretically subject foreign militaries that accept US funding and aid to scrutiny over their human rights record. Ex-State Department officials like Josh Paul have long said that Israel is given special dispensation under Leahy, but the report lays that out in detail. Alleged Israeli rights abuses are not treated like normal Leahy objections but are instead funneled through their own bespoke channel, the “Israel Leahy Vetting Forum.” Where in most cases a single complaint could trigger a freeze in US support, in Israel’s case an entire working group must reach a consensus before any further action might be taken. Everything about the process is meant to shield the Israeli government and the IDF from repercussions for their atrocities.
The IDF carried out at least ten airstrikes in the vicinity of Khan Younis on Thursday, so everybody can leave their “days since Israel started honoring the ceasefire” counters at zero for at least one more day. Hamas, meanwhile, repatriated the bodies of two Gaza captives. Israeli authorities confirmed the identities of those bodies after receiving them. By my count that leaves 11 bodies still unaccounted.
ASIA
PAKISTAN
Somewhat improbably, the Afghan and Pakistani governments have resumed the ceasefire talks that appeared to have collapsed a couple of days ago. Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif credited mediators Qatar and Turkey with convincing the Pakistani delegation to remain in Istanbul on Wednesday night, when it had been set to return to Islamabad, and for coaxing the parties back to the negotiating table on Thursday. That session resulted in an agreement to maintain their current ceasefire and to schedule another, higher-level round of talks on finalizing it for November 6 (again in Istanbul).
In Pakistan, meanwhile, authorities claimed that security forces killed 18 unspecified militants in two operations in Baluchistan province. They may have been Baluch separatists though that’s unclear from the reporting. Security forces also reportedly killed four Pakistani Taliban fighters who were attempting to cross from Afghanistan into northern Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
CHINA
Donald Trump’s summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping did produce an agreement that in theory resolves some of the issues that have been impacting bilateral relations. Specifically, Xi agreed to resume Chinese purchases of US agricultural products (soybeans, primarily) and both countries agreed to a one year (at least) freeze on export restrictions for critical minerals (from China’s side) and tech products (from the US side). Trump halved the 20 percent tariff he’s levied on Chinese imports related to fentanyl trafficking in return for Xi’s promise to “very hard to stop the flow” of that drug and its precursor chemicals. And they mutually agreed to shelve plans to increase port fees on each other’s cargo ships.
It would be wrong to call this a comprehensive trade deal inasmuch as it did little to reduce the tariffs the two countries have already imposed on each other’s exports—that 10 percent fentanyl adjustment only brings the overall US tariff rate on Chinese goods down to a still-high 47 percent. It also didn’t resolve the contentious matter of US companies selling (or being allowed to sell) high tech chips to Chinese firms, though Trump’s subsequent comments to reporters suggested that he’s more open to permitting those sales than he had been previously. But it’s not nothing. It is worth noting, I think, that Xi’s main concessions here involve things that he only started doing in the past few months (suspending US soybean purchases and ramping up mineral export controls), so in that sense they’re pretty minor. Trump’s concessions also involved rolling back policies he’d implemented fairly recently, but given that he’s been the aggressor in this trade war it’s significant that he’s now signaling at least a partial retreat from it.
SOUTH KOREA
Somewhat bizarrely, after meeting with Xi Trump hopped on to Air Force One and left South Korea, completely skipping the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit that was ostensibly his main reason for being there. It’s unclear why he decided to leave, though boredom is the simplest explanation. Given that the US is still technically competing with China for influence in the Asia-Pacific region bailing on the summit is a curious choice.
Before he left town Trump apparently agreed to a South Korean request that it be allowed to manufacture a nuclear-powered submarine in the US. It will be the first nuclear-powered sub in the South Korean arsenal. South Korean officials appear to have convinced Trump that if they had such a submarine (and the timeframe for its manufacture is in the five year plus range) it would help Seoul assume a greater share of its defense responsibilities from the US military. The project also will involve South Korean investment in the US shipbuilding industry, the redevelopment of which has been a particular priority of Trump’s second term. This development is unlikely to be well received by the North Korean government and may cause some consternation in the Chinese government as well.
AFRICA
SUDAN
To presumably no surprise, horrifying scenes are unfolding in and around the recently sacked city of Al-Fashir:
People who have fled the western city of el-Fasher in wartorn Sudan are recounting scenes of horrific violence at the hands of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) as aid workers say they fear only a fraction of the besieged city’s residents have managed to escape.
The RSF has killed at least 1,500 people in el-Fasher, capital of North Darfur state, since seizing it Sunday, according to the Sudan Doctors Network, including at least 460 at a hospital in a widely-condemned massacre.
More than 36,000 people have fled since Saturday, largely on foot, to Tawila, a town around 70 kilometres (43 miles) west that is already sheltering roughly 650,000 displaced people.
Hayat, a mother of five children, told the AFP news agency via satellite phone that seven RSF fighters ransacked her home, searched her undergarments and killed her 16-year-old son in front of her.
As she fled with neighbours, “we saw many dead bodies lying on the ground and wounded people left behind in the open because their families couldn’t carry them,” she recalled.
That 1500 figure is lower than casualty figures thrown around by Sudan’s military government and its allied militias, but it has to be tempered by the fact that nobody really knows the full toll at this point because the situation is far too chaotic for an accurate assessment. The flood of people into Tawila, which is even less equipped to handle that kind of influx than Al-Fashir was when it started taking in people displaced from other parts of Darfur, is another troubling sign from a humanitarian perspective.
MALI
The US State Department has ordered nonessential employees and their family members to evacuate Mali “due to safety risks.” This comes on the heels of a travel advisory it issued earlier this week warning any US citizens in Mali to leave the country forthwith. The Wall Street Journal suggests that the urgency is borne out of a fear that Jamaʿat Nusrat al-Islam wa’l-Muslimin insurgents may be close to capturing Bamako:
Al Qaeda militants are moving closer to seizing the capital of the West African nation of Mali, which, should the city fall, would become the first country in the world run by the U.S.-designated terrorist group.
The rapid advance of the jihadists in Africa comes after Islamist groups took power in both Afghanistan and Syria, but, if they take Bamako, it would be the first time militants with direct and current connections to al Qaeda achieve such a feat.
They appear to be getting close, though they will likely wait some time before making any decisive move, security specialists say. Insurgents are blocking food and fuel deliveries to Bamako, the capital city, triggering shortages that are even hindering the army’s ability to respond, according to local and European officials and footage posted by the jihadists.
Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, which translates as Support Group for Islam and Muslims, is betting on a creeping takeover rather than an all-out assault, European security officials say. “The longer the blockade drags on, the closer Bamako comes to collapse,” said Raphael Parens, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a nonpartisan policy center in Philadelphia.
JNIM appears to have adopted the Afghan Taliban and Syria’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as role models. Both have in recent years been able to seize control of their countries relatively easily after the previous governments collapsed under pressure. Mali’s junta may be nearing that point as well.
TANZANIA
Amnesty International is reporting that at least two people (one civilian and one police officer) have been killed in Tanzania amid ongoing protests in the wake of Wednesday’s rigged election. Security forces in (one civilian and one police officer). Security forces in Dar es Salaam opened fire on protesters who turned out in spite of a curfew. The country now appears to be under a near complete communications blackout, which may indicate an escalation in efforts to suppress the protests, and there are rumors (unconfirmed because of the blackout) of 30 or more people killed between Wednesday and Thursday.
EUROPE
UKRAINE
The Russian military bombarded Ukraine with some 650 drones and 50 missiles overnight Wednesday into Thursday, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, killing at least six people. The barrage primarily seems to have targeted power facilities, which has once again become the focus of Russian military attention heading into winter. Multiple blackouts were reported.
NETHERLANDS
Wednesday’s exit polls did apparently overestimate the performance of the centrist Democrats 66 (D66) party in the Netherlands’ snap parliamentary election, but only a little. Instead of winning the election outright with 27 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, with nearly all of the votes counted it appears that D66 has won 26 seats to finish in a tie for first with Geert Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom (PVV). However, the two parties are on somewhat different trajectories in that this result represents a net loss of 11 seats for PVV and ensures that it will be left out of forthcoming coalition talks. For D66, on the other hand, it is now in position to lead those talks with party leader Rob Jetten the favorite to become the next Dutch prime minister. Assuming he’s successful he will be both the youngest person and the first openly gay person to hold that office.
The opening of the coalition process could depend on what happens with the remaining vote count. If PVV slips ahead of D66 Wilders may insist on being given first dibs on forming a government as the “winner” of the election. He’s got virtually no chance of doing so but his attempt could delay Jettens’ coalition building effort.
AMERICAS
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
The Venezuelan government has declared Trinidad and Tobago Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar persona non grata after her government welcomed the destroyer USS Gravely over the weekend. Asked earlier this week about the possibility of a PNG designation, she said “Why would they think I would want to go to Venezuela?” so I guess she’s not too broken up about this. She also doesn’t seem to be a huge fan of due process, as she’s cheered on the US military’s bombing campaign targeting unlucky speedboats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific.
UNITED STATES
Finally, in Trumpland:
Donald Trump has capped US refugee admissions at 7500 for FY2026, an all time low. Most of those slots, Trump has indicated, will be given to white South Africans. This is almost beyond parody and it is definitely beneath contempt.
The Pentagon is ordering National Guard detachments in every state to train “quick reaction” units that would be tasked with handling “civil disturbances and riots” and could be deployed within hours. One might conclude that the Trump administration is planning to keep doing things that are likely to spark “civil disturbances and riots,” perhaps in increasing frequency as next year’s midterm election approaches. This program stems from an executive order signed by Trump back in August ordering the creation of these rapid response forces.
Prior to his summit with Xi Jinping on Thursday, Trump took to social media to announce that “because of other countries’ testing programs, I have instructed the [Defense Department] to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately.” Trump is of course given to making some inscrutable public statements, but this one is particularly inscrutable because the last known full nuclear weapons test as far as I’m aware took place in North Korea in 2017 and no other country is known to have conducted one since 1998, so it’s unclear what “other countries’ testing programs” he’s talking about. There are other kinds of nuclear weapons testing that can be done short of a full warhead test but it’s unlikely that Trump would have made a point of announcing this if that’s what he meant.
It may be that Trump is reacting to Vladimir Putin’s claim over the weekend that the Russian military had successfully tested its Burevestnik cruise missile, which is nuclear-powered and thus has basically unlimited (for cruise missile purposes) range and flight time. But that’s not a nuclear weapons test. The Burevestnik could carry a nuclear warhead, but that still doesn’t make it a nuclear weapons test. Given the condition of Trump’s brain it’s possible that he heard about the Burevestnik test and blacked out on the “-powered” part of “nuclear-powered” but who knows? Putin also mentioned a recent test of the Russian Navy’s nuclear-capable Poseidon torpedo (the utility of putting a nuclear warhead on a torpedo is questionable, for the record), but again that’s not a nuclear weapons test.
It’s unclear what Trump’s statement means or if it means anything at all. Is the US military going to start blowing up South Pacific atolls again? The US has never ratified the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty but it has adhered to it nevertheless, and any new US weapons test would undoubtedly shatter that accord as China and Russia would follow suit. That would likely be exceedingly bad from the standpoint of global stability, so hopefully this is one of those times when Trump pops off about something and then everybody agrees to nod politely and move on.