World roundup: October 25-26 2025
Stories from Israel-Palestine, Malaysia, Sudan, and elsewhere
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TODAY IN HISTORY
October 25, 1147: The Siege of Lisbon ends. This siege involved soldiers who had initially set out for the Holy Land to join what we now call the Second Crusade. And speaking of which, this is also the date on which the army of Holy Roman Emperor Conrad III was thoroughly defeated by the Seljuks at the Battle of Dorylaeum, removing it as a potential factor in that crusade. We’ve seen how the Crusade eventually turned out (SPOILER ALERT: not well).
October 25, 1917: The Bolsheviks begin an uprising in Petrograd that would within a day see them overthrow the provisional Russian government of Alexander Kerensky and, after a lengthy civil war, become the new leaders of Russia. This is the Old Style (Julian calendar) date of the revolution, which according to the Gregorian calendar actually took place on November 7. But since it’s called the “October Revolution” I feel weird commemorating it in November.
October 26, 1185: A revolt over high Byzantine taxes breaks out among Bulgarians living in Moesia. This insurrection, known as the “Uprising of Asen and Peter” after its leaders—two brothers (identified as Vlach but probably with mixed Bulgarian heritage) who were named, you know, Asen and Peter—quickly led to a restoration of the Bulgarian Empire, which had been subjugated by the Byzantines in the 11th century. The principals signed a truce that tacitly recognized a restored Bulgarian empire in 1187, though conflict continued beyond that. This “Second Bulgarian Empire” survived until it was eradicated by the Ottomans in 1396.
October 26, 1947: Maharaja Hari Singh of Jammu and Kashmir signs the Instrument of Accession that brings his state into union with India. When British colonial authorities partitioned India and Pakistan, they decided to leave Kashmir’s fate up to Kashmir. The region’s Muslim majority was divided between independence and union with Pakistan, while its Hindu minority favored union with India. Hari Singh seemed to favor independence, but conflict between Kashmiri Muslims and Hindus prompted him to turn to India for help and Kashmir thus joined India.
MIDDLE EAST
TURKEY
The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) declared on Sunday that it is withdrawing its remaining fighters in Turkey to its bases in northern Iraq, marking another step forward in its peace talks with the Turkish government. Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) trumpeted the announcement as proof that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s negotiating effort is working. However, the PKK also suggested that this may be the last concession it makes to Ankara without getting something in return. So far Erdoğan hasn’t given ground on anything, really, though his military seems to have stopped regularly attacking PKK personnel in and around those northern Iraqi facilities. It sounds like the PKK is looking for some indication that this process is a two way street before they proceed any further.
LEBANON
The Israeli military (IDF) spent the weekend continuing to violate its ceasefire in Lebanon, killing at least two people on Saturday and three people on Sunday. Israeli officials are claiming that most or all of these five had some connection to Hezbollah. The IDF seems to have adjusted the tempo of its Lebanon bombings from near daily to multiple times per day since the ceasefire went into effect in Gaza, though I can’t say whether those things are related.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
There are several items of note:
The IDF undertook an airstrike on central Gaza’s Nuseirat region on Saturday, killing a man who was allegedly affiliated with Palestinian Islamic Jihad and “planned to carry out an imminent terrorist attack” (according to IDF) against Israeli forces.
Work is continuing on two of the more intermediate elements of Donald Trump’s ceasefire framework, the repatriation of the remains of Gaza captives and the formation of an international security force for Gaza. To the former, the Egyptian government has sent a recovery team with heavy machinery to Gaza to facilitate the search for 13 bodies that still haven’t been recovered. Donald Trump said on Saturday that he’s giving Hamas 48 hours to return additional bodies (though not all 13). It’s unclear what he’s going to do if the group doesn’t meet his nebulous demands.
As far as the international security force is concerned, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told his cabinet on Sunday that if/when it’s deployed the IDF will still have the final word on security matters in Gaza. That means Netanyahu feels he can veto the participation of particular countries in the force and he’s reserving the right to continue striking targets in Gaza at will once the force is in place (assuming it ever is in place). It’s unclear whether prospective participants are going to be comfortable serving at Netanyahu’s discretion. This isn’t going to do much to quiet fears that the current IDF “withdrawal” from Gaza isn’t really a withdrawal so much as a permanent reoccupation.
According to The Financial Times, “some Arab and Muslim countries” are displeased with the possibility that former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair might have a role on the “board of peace” that Trump envisions governing Gaza for the indefinite future. Apparently they haven’t gotten over his role in the Iraq War. Who could have predicted, really? These are the countries that Trump is expecting to commit military forces and money to the governance and rebuilding of Gaza, so if Blair is a dealbreaker for them it’s unclear how he can have a role in this process moving forward.
ASIA
PAKISTAN
With the Afghan and Pakistani governments still discussing their ceasefire in Istanbul, the Pakistani military claimed on Sunday that its forces had killed some 25 militants who’d attempted to cross from Afghanistan into northern Pakistan over the previous two days. At least five Pakistani soldiers were also killed in these operations. Pakistani officials are demanding that the Afghan government take steps to interdict these cross-border attacks and have suggested that the ceasefire will only last so long as militant activity is curbed.
MALAYSIA
Donald Trump arrived in Kuala Lumpur over the weekend to attend this year’s Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit. The highlight of his appearance was the signing of a formal ceasefire between the previously feuding nations of Thailand and Cambodia. Trump joined Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet, and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in affixing his name to that document. The formal agreement supposedly “builds on” the ceasefire that ended cross-border clashes between the two countries back in July, though it’s unclear exactly how it adds to that earlier accord. It has been suggested that Sunday’s signing, and particularly the signing ceremony, was intended mainly to secure Trump’s attendance at the ASEAN summit.
Trump’s visit also saw the conclusion of new trade deals between the US and Malaysia and the US and Cambodia, as well as “framework” deals between the US and Thailand and the US and Vietnam. In every case the basic outline seems to have been that the US agreed to exempt certain products from Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff regime while the other countries agreed to reduce tariffs on US products and commit to purchase some US export (chiefly agricultural goods and Boeing aircraft). They also agreed to “facilitate” US access to their critical minerals reserves, whatever that means.
EAST TIMOR
Perhaps the most monumental thing that’s taken place at the ASEAN summit is East Timor’s admission, making it the bloc’s 11th member. The Timorese government applied for ASEAN membership all the way back in 2011 but has struggled through the membership process due to concerns over its economic and social development. It immediately became by far the smallest ASEAN member in terms of the size of its economy, though the hope is that access to the bloc’s common market will provide a significant boost in that regard.
CHINA
Speaking of framework trade deals, US and Chinese negotiators claimed to have reached another one on Sunday after two days of talks in Malaysia. According to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Beijing is expected to resume purchasing US soybeans and to delay—for at least a year—implementing its latest restrictions on the export of critical minerals. The two sides also apparently finalized the transfer of TikTok to its new US ownership. Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will meet in South Korea on the sidelines of the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum to finalize this deal, which will ease bilateral tensions until Trump gets mad at China again and the whole cycle will start over.
NORTH KOREA
Donald Trump told reporters on Friday that he wants to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during his Asia excursion. This is pretty unlikely given that there’s been no indication that Kim feels the same way and thus there’s been no planning for such a meeting, but never say never I guess. Kim has expressed openness to another meeting with Trump, but he seems to want the US government to drop its demand for “denuclearization” before he’ll really consider it. Nevertheless, South Korean Unification Minister Chung Dong-young has described the chances of a meeting during Trump’s upcoming visit to South Korea as “considerable” and presumably he’s got a better sense for these things than I do.
AFRICA
SUDAN
The Rapid Support Forces militant group claimed on Sunday to have captured the city of Al-Fashir in Sudan’s North Darfur state, concluding an 18 month siege. Local resistance fighters are denying it, insisting that the RSF was waging a “media disinformation campaign” to undermine their morale. The RSF released video seeming to show Sudanese military forces evacuating the city as proof of its claim. It also pledged to open “safe corridors” for anyone trying to leave the city, though it’s been pledging that for weeks and people who have tried to evacuate have reported RSF fighters and their irregular auxiliaries harassing, assaulting, and even killing people in those alleged corridors.
Assuming that the RSF’s claim is more or less accurate (it may be in control of the city even if there are still pockets of resistance), taking Al-Fashir gives it control of all five state capitals in Darfur and further consolidates its emerging statelet in that part of the country. The RSF is also reportedly attacking the city of Barah in North Kordofan state, another area where the militants are trying to consolidate the territory under their control and limit the military’s options for future offensives.
IVORY COAST
As expected, partial early results have Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara winning Sunday’s election. One of his lesser challengers, former Commerce Minister Jean-Louis Billon, has already conceded. Assuming this result holds up, Ouattara will be heading into the fourth of his constitutionally limited two terms as president (though he argues that the adoption of a new constitution in 2016 reset his term counter to zero). Ouattara had his strongest potential challengers barred from the race so he’s likely to cruise to victory when the final results are announced.
CAMEROON
Supporters of Cameroonian opposition leader Issa Tchiroma protested in the city of Douala on Sunday, one day before the results of that country’s presidential election are to be announced. At least four people were killed, presumably by police though that hasn’t been confirmed as far as I know. Protests have broken out in multiple cities as every indication is that 92 year old incumbent Paul Biya will win, even though Tchiroma has claimed victory and says he has evidence to prove it. His supporters are accusing national election officials of rigging the vote count for Biya.
EUROPE
KOSOVO
Caretaker Kosovan Prime Minister Albin Kurti failed to win election to another term in that office on Sunday, as Kosovo’s heavily fragmented parliament was unable to coalesce behind a government more than ten months since February’s election. Kurti’s Vetëvendosje party is the largest in the Kosovan assembly but has only 48 seats in the 120 seat legislature and he was only able to muster up another eight votes on Sunday. Kosovan President Vjosa Osmani could give one of the smaller opposition parties a chance to form a government but those parties seem to be pulling for a new election.
IRELAND
Leftist independent Catherine Connolly won Friday’s Irish presidential election handily, taking 63 percent of the unspoiled first-preference votes to just 29 percent for Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys. Connolly has been a staunch critic of the Israeli genocide in Gaza and of what she’s called the “militarization” of the European Union since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Irish presidency is a mostly symbolic office but her election presumably says something about the mood of Irish voters. A higher than usual number of spoiled ballots may also be suggestive of some level of voter dissatisfaction.
AMERICAS
ARGENTINA
Donald Trump’s conditional bailout of the ailing Argentine peso appears to have worked as intended, as initial results suggest that voters handed President Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party a huge victory in Sunday’s midterm election. The party looks like it will go from 37 seats in the House of Deputies to 64, which should greatly strengthen Milei’s position with respect to the Peronist opposition.
CANADA
Donald Trump announced on Saturday that he’s raising tariffs on Canadian products by 10 percent. He’s angry over an anti-tariff advertisement produced by the Ontario provincial government that uses clips from an address by former US President Ronald Reagan. Trump called the ad “a FRAUD” on social media, though there’s no indication that it misrepresented Reagan’s position on tariffs in any meaningful way. Most Canadian exports to the US are tariff exempt under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, so this increase may not have much effect.
UNITED STATES
Finally, The Washington Post’s Ishaan Tharoor discusses a new United Nations report linking cuts to social programs to the global rise of the extreme right:
Olivier De Schutter has a message not many governments want to hear. On Wednesday, the United Nations’s special rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights [delivered] a report to the U.N. General Assembly on how cuts and curbs to welfare programs and social spending across the world have stoked popular discontent and, as a result, far-right politics.
Across Europe and, indeed, in the United States, overwhelming impatience and despair with the status quo has laid the groundwork for the rise of various antiestablishment and often far-right political movements. Those include President Donald Trump’s own project and a host of ascendant factions globally, including the National Rally in France and the Alternative for Germany party.
Welfare programs that once galvanized entire societies have, in some instances, turned into sources of division and stigma. Anti-immigrant parties grumble over foreigners claiming benefits; others capitalize on resentment of minorities receiving state assistance. Campaigners in Britain, for example, have raged against government efforts to temporarily house asylum seekers, while Republicans in the United States claim misleadingly that the political impasse shutting down the federal government has to do with Democrats’ supposed desire to provide free health care to undocumented immigrants.
“Far-right populists appeal to a growing share of voters by combining anti-elite sentiment with an ‘us’ against ‘them’ mentality, positioning themselves as defending the in-group against the out-group,” De Schutter, a Belgian legal scholar, noted in the report. “This messaging is particularly attractive to voters who fear losing their status and feel threatened by cultural and economic change.”