World roundup: October 4-5 2025

Stories from Israel-Palestine, Japan, Russia, and elsewhere

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PROGRAMMING NOTE: I can’t be 100 percent sure about this at the moment but I am fairly certain that I will be unable to write a newsletter tomorrow due to a personal commitment. If that is the case then we will double up on Tuesday.

TODAY IN HISTORY

October 4, 1957: The Soviet Union successfully launches Sputnik 1, putting the first artificial satellite in orbit and terrifying a whole bunch of people in Washington DC.

October 4, 1993: The two-day Battle of Mogadishu, later memorialized in the book/film Black Hawk Down, ends. The battle began with a calamitous US/UN mission to capture a couple of aides to self-declared Somali President Mohamed Farrah Aidid, which went south very quickly when Somali fighters shot down a US Black Hawk helicopter (they later shot down a second). In the end 21 international soldiers were killed (19 of them American) and one captured, while at least 200 Somalis (both civilians and militants) were also killed.

October 5, 610: The rebel Heraclius (d. 641) becomes Byzantine Emperor after executing his predecessor, Phocas.

October 5, 1789: A group of women, angry over high food prices and scarcity, march from Paris to the royal residence at Versailles, attracting a crowd of supporters along the way. The “Women’s March on Versailles,” saw its goals morph as it proceeded, from a simple demand for food to a broader call for the royal court to return to Paris, where it might be more immediately accountable to the public. Louis XVI eventually agreed to that demand, and the victory helped to lend momentum to the budding revolutionary movement.

A contemporary illustration of the march (Wikimedia Commons)

MIDDLE EAST

ISRAEL-PALESTINE

Indirect negotiations are scheduled to begin in Cairo on Monday on a new push for a ceasefire in Gaza based on the framework that Donald Trump promulgated on Monday and that Hamas partially accepted on Friday. There is no ceasefire as yet, as despite Trump’s call for an “immediate” one on Friday the Israeli military (IDF) continued to bombard Gaza through the weekend, killing at least 70 people on Saturday and another 24 people at time of writing on Sunday. I can’t say if that Sunday decline is due to any reduction in intensity from the IDF or just a random fluctuation. The IDF supposedly shifted to “defensive” operations in Gaza on Saturday, but then it killed dozens of people, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested in an interview with NBC News on Sunday that the ceasefire is going to depend on the outcome of those Cairo talks.

I don’t get the impression that the agenda for Cairo has actually been set, which probably augurs poorly for the negotiations. In its response to Trump, Hamas effectively divided his framework into items that the group is comfortable discussing and those (like the future governance of Gaza) that it says need to be discussed within a Palestinian national dialogue. Within that first division are items that can (and in fact need to be) negotiated quickly (the release of the remaining Gaza captives and Palestinians being held by Israel, the ceasefire, an influx of humanitarian aid, and the IDF’s withdrawal from at least part of Gaza) and those that will have to be considered over a longer negotiating process (Hamas’s “disarmament,” for example). If the US and/or Israelis demand that everything be resolved in a few days (that’s Trump’s timeframe) in Cairo then these talks are going to fail. If they’re willing to take things in stages then there’s some potential for progress.

Yes I realize the Israelis are likely approaching these talks in bad faith but I don’t know what more to say on that front. Trump will probably have to exert pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu and company to keep the negotiations going and the extent to which he’s prepared to do that may be the key to success or failure. Internally Netanyahu is reportedly hearing it from his far-right coalition partners for even participating in these talks, but they’ve given no sign as yet that they’re prepared to collapse the Israeli government over this.

IRAN

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Sunday repudiated the deal he made with the International Atomic Energy Agency in Cairo earlier this year, calling it “no longer relevant for our cooperation with the IAEA.” The Cairo agreement restored, in theory, the IAEA’s access to Iranian nuclear sites. It was intended to appease the “E3” (France, Germany, and the UK) so that they might agree to postpone the reimposition of United Nations sanctions on Iran. It failed to do that, hence Araghchi’s announcement. Araghchi also told a group of diplomats in Tehran that the E3’s actions had “diminished their role” in future discussions around Iran’s nuclear program “and almost eliminated the justification for negotiations with them” altogether. He added that Tehran will “announce” the parameters of its new relationship with the IAEA but didn’t say when that might be forthcoming.

ASIA

GEORGIA

Antigovernment protesters attempted to storm the Georgian presidential palace in Tbilisi on Saturday, prompting Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze to accuse them the following day of “trying to overthrow the constitutional order.” He announced a crackdown on further protests and accused European Union ambassador Paweł Herczyński of having “special responsibility” for fomenting the unrest. The protests coincided with municipal elections that the ruling Georgian Dream party appears to have more or less swept after opposition parties boycotted. The party has faced some public opposition since last October’s parliamentary election, in which it claimed a heavily disputed win.

PAKISTAN

Authorities in Pakistani Kashmir appear to have reached an agreement with the Awami Action Committee on Saturday to end several days of protests over economic conditions in that region. The Pakistani government had sent a negotiating team to Kashmir two days earlier. According to regional Prime Minister Chaudhry Anwarul Haq the government wound up accepting “all” of the protesters’ demands for continued subsidies, expanded public services, and governance reforms.

JAPAN

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party has elected Takaichi Sanae as its new leader, replacing the outgoing Ishiba Shigeru following his resignation last month. This puts Takaichi in line to become prime minister when the Japanese parliament votes on Ishiba’s replacement on October 15, which would make her the first woman to hold that post.

However, this vote may not be as automatic as one might think, given the LDP’s dominance of post-World War II Japanese politics. The party and its regular coalition partner, Komeito, lost their House of Representatives majority last year and their House of Councillors majority earlier this year (hence Ishiba’s resignation) and they need to appeal to more centrist parties for support. Takaichi comes from the LDP’s right wing, and her conservatism may make it difficult for the party to make that appeal successfully. The far-right Sanseitō party appears to be gaining popularity but doesn’t currently have a large enough presence in parliament to make much of a difference in this PM election.

AFRICA

BURKINA FASO

AFP is reporting that Jamaʿat Nusrat al-Islam wa’l-Muslimin fighters killed at least eight soldiers last month in two attacks on a military unit stationed in the northern part of Burkina Faso’s Boucle du Mouhoun region. Those attacks displaced residents of Sourou province, where the unit was based, though the number of displaced is unclear.

SOMALIA

Al-Shabab fighters attacked the Godka Jilow prison in Mogadishu on Saturday, sparking a six hour battle with security forces that, according to Somali officials, ended with all seven attackers dead and no prisoners having been released. Multiple casualties were reported but those officials are also claiming that no security personnel or civilians were killed. Just prior to the attack the Somali government had lifted several longstanding roadblocks in the city that were designed to protect government buildings but had been criticized for causing traffic snarls. It’s possible those roadblocks will be reinstated now.

EUROPE

RUSSIA

The 2010 New START accord, the only active agreement governing the compositions of the US and Russian nuclear arsenals, may have a bit more life left in it. Russian President Vladimir Putin made a passing offer last month to maintain the limits specified under that treaty, which expires in February, for another year. On Sunday, Donald Trump told reporters at the White House that Putin’s offer “sounds like a good idea.” It’s a long way from that offhanded comment to an actual extension, particularly amid speculation that the US might start selling Ukraine more advanced weaponry (which unsurprisingly rankles Putin), but it’s at least a…start.

I’m so sorry. I will do better in the future.

UKRAINE

Another massive overnight Russian bombardment involving some 500 drones and 50 missiles, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, left at least five people dead across Ukraine. Four members of a single family were killed in one strike in the western city of Lviv. Elsewhere, the Ukrainian government is now accusing China of supplying satellite intel to the Russian military, particularly relating to targets “benefiting from foreign investment.” Kyiv and various Western governments have previously accused Beijing of supplying components to Russian arms manufacturers and even assisting in the production of weapons on Russian soil, but this would mark a more intensive level of collaboration.

CZECHIA

As expected, former Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš and his ANO party won this weekend’s parliamentary election. The party actually seems to have outperformed polling a bit, finishing with somewhere around 80 seats, but it will nevertheless need to negotiate with other parties for support in the 200 seat Chamber of Deputies. Babiš has expressed a preference for a single party minority government so he’ll need to demonstrate to President Petr Pavel that he can functionally govern in that manner before he’s given the nomination to return as PM again—something Pavel says he’s not going to do until next month at the earliest. Babiš will likely have to cultivate support from two smaller parties on the far right, though at the same time he’ll have to satisfy Pavel’s demands that his government adopt “a pro-western direction” and “[preserve] all the institutions of a democratic state.” He’s expected to halt or at least reduce Czech support for Ukraine but otherwise to be less of a bother to the European Union than his fellow right wing populists in Hungary and Slovakia.

AMERICAS

ECUADOR

The Ecuadorian government declared states of emergency in ten provinces on Saturday in response to two weeks of protests primarily among the country’s Indigenous population and primarily motivated by President Daniel Noboa’s revocation of a major fuel subsidy. One person was killed last weekend in one of those protests in Quito. Saturday’s declaration drew criticism from protest organizers, who accused Noboa of “deepening his war policy,” and drew both anti- and pro-Noboa Ecuadorians into the streets in dueling demonstrations.

CUBA

The Trump administration is reportedly lobbying countries to vote against the UN General Assembly’s annual resolution condemning the US embargo on Cuba, relying in part on claims that upwards of 5000 Cuban soldiers are fighting alongside the Russian military in Ukraine. Last year 187 countries voted in favor of the resolution while two (the US and Israel) voted against and one (Moldova) abstained. This argument might sway a few European countries into abstaining or even voting “no” but I don’t see it moving that many votes in the US direction overall. It’s unclear how accurate the claim of Cuban participation in Ukraine is—there does appear to be some evidence that there are Cubans fighting with the Russians, but whether they’ve been deployed by their government or hired as mercenaries seems to be an open question. But I suppose the accuracy of the claim or its details is somewhat beside the point anyway.

UNITED STATES

A federal judge on Saturday blocked the Trump administration’s plan to federalize 200 members of the Oregon National Guard and deploy them in the city of Portland, ostensibly to protect federal (i.e., Immigration and Customs Enforcement) facilities. The administration is appealing the ruling, but in the meantime it’s decided instead to send 300 members of the California National Guard—already federalized earlier this year in response to immigration protests in Los Angeles—to Portland instead. The administration has likewise mobilized 300 members of the Illinois National Guard to deploy into Chicago. These are not the full invasions of those cities that Donald Trump has been promising but they are vanguards and tests to see how far the administration can push things legally.

Finally, The Washington Post reports on the “lingering effects” of the Trump administration’s USAID cuts even on health programs whose funding was quickly restored:

Parts of the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Global Health Supply Chain Program that ship antimalarial and HIV supplies officially resumed within days of Trump’s order, but the suspension had lingering effects that left aid deliveries severely disrupted for months, according to a Washington Post investigation. The delays impeded the delivery of medications, rapid screening tests and other lifesaving supplies to more than 40 countries, including Congo, records show.

A Post analysis of internal data from the first half of the year shows that supplies valued at more than $190 million were scheduled to arrive at distribution warehouses by the end of June. Instead, the analysis found, shipments worth nearly $76 million were not delivered, including the majority of medication needed to combat severe malaria. Some medicines never left the places where they were manufactured, and others were stranded in ports or customs facilities near the cities and villages where they were needed.

Additional supplies valued at $63 million were delivered to the warehouses but delayed at least seven days, the threshold at which they are considered late under USAID guidelines. Those shipments were delayed on average by 41 days — long enough to leave shelves empty in clinics and hospitals that rely almost entirely on U.S. taxpayers for these critical goods.

The disruptions meant even some health supplies at the regional distribution warehouses did not reach the clinics and hospitals that were their ultimate destinations. Among that material was the medication Suza [Kenyaba, a five year old Congolese child who died for lack of antimalarial medication] needed.