World roundup: September 27-28 2025
Stories from Israel-Palestine, Somalia, Venezuela, and elsewhere
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Before we get into tonight’s roundup, a friend of my daughter’s from middle school tragically passed away a couple of weeks ago and her family has started a GoFundMe for Gaza relief in her memory. If you have the wherewithal to contribute, it’s for a good cause and I know it would mean a lot to them if they could meet, or even better exceed, their goal. Thanks to anyone who is able to contribute.
TODAY IN HISTORY
September 27, 1669: The Ottoman siege of Candia (modern Heraklion), finally ends after more than 21 years with the city, and all of Crete, in Ottoman hands. The siege was the centerpiece of the 1645-1669 Cretan War, the fifth of seven wars between the Ottoman Empire and the Republic of Venice. Its conquest of Crete brought the Ottoman Empire to its greatest territorial extent, though it was a fleeting moment as by the end of the 17th century the empire would begin shrinking.
September 27, 1822: French orientalist Jean-François Champollion (d. 1832) publishes the first results of his translation of the Rosetta Stone, the first true breakthrough in the effort by European scholars to decipher Egyptian hieroglyphics. Two years later he published Précis du système hiéroglyphique des anciens Égyptiens, which cemented his reputation as the “Father of Egyptology.”
September 28, 1538: The Ottoman navy defeats a Christian “Holy League” fleet in a battle near Preveza, on the western Greek coast. After the first day of fighting favored the Ottomans, Holy League commander Andrea Doria—a Genoese admiral—opted to retreat rather than continue the engagement. The battle was a crucial element in the Ottoman victory in its 1537-1540 war against Venice.
September 28, 1961: A group of Syrian military officers carries out a coup that pulls Syria out of the United Arab Republic, the political union that Syria and Egypt had formed in 1958. In addition to ending the UAR, the coup kicked off about 18 months of political chaos in Syria that finally ended (well, sort of ended) with the March 1963 coup that brought the Baath Party to power.
MIDDLE EAST
LEBANON
Hezbollah held a ceremony on Saturday to mark the one year anniversary of former leader Hassan Nasrallah’s death in an Israeli airstrike. Notably, current Hezbollah boss Naim Qassem took the occasion to reiterate that the group has no intention of disarming, threatening a violent response should the Lebanese government pursue that goal. In what could be viewed as an indication of Hezbollah’s relationship with the government, the group projected images of Nasrallah and his former “heir apparent,” Hashem Safieddine, onto a cliff face just off the coast of Beirut during the ceremony even though Prime Minister Nawaf Salam had forbidden that display.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
Donald Trump told Barak Ravid from Axios on Sunday that negotiations over ending the genocide in Gaza are “at their final stages,” based on a proposal that he shared with “Arab and Muslim leaders” during the past week’s United Nations General Assembly session. According to Ravid, who reported on the proposal on Wednesday, Trump laid out an agenda that includes an indefinite ceasefire, the release of all the remaining Gaza captives, a staged Israeli military (IDF) withdrawal from Gaza to be replaced by a pan-Arab “security force” with Palestinian involvement, and the creation of a new governing authority for the territory that excludes Hamas and includes “some” Palestinian Authority involvement, funded by Islamic (primarily Arab) states.
Those “Arab and Muslim leaders” reportedly welcomed Trump’s plan with a few caveats. Chief among these was an assurance that Trump not permit the Israeli government to annex the West Bank. According to POLITICO Trump gave them that assurance, though one assumes it only applies to full legal annexation and not to the de facto annexation that Israel has been carrying out in the West Bank for several years. There are also indications that Trump’s meeting with those leaders resulted in changes to his proposal with respect to “postwar” aid distribution (no “Gaza Humanitarian Foundation” involvement) and the prospect of genuine Palestinian statehood. Haaretz reported on Saturday that Arab governments, chiefly Qatar, had secured Hamas’s agreement “in principle” to the new framework, though Hamas officials later claimed that the group hadn’t even seen the framework, so who knows?
Up next, again according to Ravid, will be a meeting between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on Monday. The Israeli PM already met with US envoy Steve Witkoff and Middle East Viceroy Jared Kushner on Sunday but he apparently remains unconvinced on at least two details. For one, Hamas’s disarmament is reportedly part of the proposal but Netanyahu wants the language around that process changed to make it more “binding.” He’s also reportedly unhappy with the PA involvement in Gaza’s new administration. Whether or not this deal actually comes to fruition probably depends on how much pressure Trump is willing to impose on Netanyahu at that meeting.
In other items:
Netanyahu’s UN speech on Friday, which was notable mostly for how many delegations walked out as he began talking, made clear how little interest he has in ending the genocide of his own volition. Netanyahu spoke of a need to “finish the job,” which I guess one could optimistically interpret as a call to “defeat Hamas” or whatever, despite copious evidence at this point that “the job” is the mass slaughter of Palestinians capped off by the ethnic cleansing of Gaza.
Netanyahu’s speech included a denunciation of all the Western nations—including Canada, France, and the UK—that recognized Palestinian statehood over the past week or so. I maintain that these recognitions are performative unless they’re followed by tangible action—sanctions on Israel, for example—which is unlikely. But Netanyahu’s anger would seem to indicate that he and other Israeli leaders regard the recognitions as a potential problem. Mouin Rabbani has a piece at Jacobin articulating the risk for Israel, which is two-fold: one, these recognitions do open the door to tangible action, even if the countries involved are unlikely to take it anytime soon; and two, they’re the result of Western public opinion turning against Israel. The latter is the more serious concern for Netanyahu, which is why he’s so thrilled with the forthcoming US acquisition of TikTok and all the propaganda possibilities that opens up.
In Gaza, meanwhile, the IDF killed at least 41 people on Sunday, including at least 15 in Gaza City. The previous day it killed at least 91 people, 48 of them in Gaza City. The official death toll in Gaza since the October 7 attacks has now risen to more than 66,000, though that figure likely undercounts the actual loss of life. Israeli forces are once again attacking al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City, killing medical personnel and forcing patients to flee the facility. They are also continuing to flatten high rises in the city. Hamas claimed on Sunday that it had lost contact with fighters who were holding two of the remaining living captives in the city due to the continued Israeli onslaught.
The Trump administration is apparently eyeing former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, whose ability to capitalize on human suffering remains unsurpassed, as the viceroy of a “postwar” Gaza administration. Blair’s ties to Trump- and Israel-friendly billionaire Larry Ellison—his “Tony Blair Institute” is apparently not much more than an arm of Ellison’s company, Oracle—undoubtedly gave him the inside track for this gig, should it manifest. Haaretz reports that Blair’s plan for administering Gaza calls for the formation of something called the “Gaza International Transitional Authority,” featuring an “international board” that he will head. It does include Palestinian involvement but only at the level of day-to-day management while the GITA—which won’t be based in Gaza—handles diplomacy and security, and actually sets policy.
IRAN
A last-ditch attempt at diplomacy failed to satisfy the “E3” (France, Germany, and the UK) and so the UN sanctions that had been suspended under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal have now been reimposed. The three European governments invoked that deal’s “snapback” mechanism last month and apparently rejected the Iranian government’s offer in recent days to “immediately” restart international inspections at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in return for an extension of the September 28 deadline for the sanctions to come back online.
Iran is already dealing with crippling US sanctions so there’s only so much impact these reimposed UN sanctions can have, but they can certainly have an impact as indicated by the crash of the already nearly worthless Iranian rial on Sunday. The Russian and Chinese governments have denounced the snapback move and can be expected to continue trading with Iran more or less as they’ve been doing despite those US sanctions, which will cushion the economic blow to some degree. In terms of a response, Tehran recalled its ambassadors from the “E3” nations on Saturday and otherwise appears to be deliberating internally. Iranian officials have sent conflicting messages about what is probably their most serious option, withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which would almost certainly trigger an Israeli-US military response.
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
The Afghan government released a US national identified as Amir Amiri from prison on Sunday. He’d apparently been taken into custody back in December for reasons that are unknown and was at last check on his way back to the US. This would appear to be the result of that prisoner exchange agreement Afghan officials announced earlier this month that, to my knowledge, was never explicitly confirmed by anyone in the Trump administration. It’s still unclear what Afghanistan will get out of that deal. The Qatari government has apparently been involved as a mediator.
Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported several days ago that US and Afghan officials have been in contact regarding Donald Trump’s desire that the US somehow reacquire control over Afghanistan’s Bagram Airbase. Well, sort of. According to this report the discussions have focused on the comparatively limited aim of establishing a “small” US “presence” at the facility for use “as a launch point for counterterrorism operations.” While those discussions are very preliminary they could be part of a much bigger deal that might see the US normalizing relations with the Taliban-led Afghan government alongside economic and security elements. While a deal like this would forestall a new war in Afghanistan, which is good, it still seems unlikely that Afghan officials would countenance the US using Bagram to spy on China—which Trump indicated was his reason for wanting to get the base back.
INDIA
The Trump administration has revoked the sanctions waiver that the US government had previously maintained for projects related to the development of Iran’s Chabahar seaport. This is a blow to the Iranian government but it also hits the Indian government, which has been the prime mover in that project and whose involvement was one reason why the US maintained the waiver in the first place. As you may be aware, Donald Trump has decided that he doesn’t like India anymore so the decision to pull the waiver is not terribly surprising. The US also valued Chabahar as a conduit for shipping oil and other commercial goods to Afghanistan, but that stopped being a concern for Washington when the Taliban regained control in Kabul in 2021.
That is still a concern for India, though, which values Chabahar as a shipping channel to Afghanistan and beyond that bypasses Pakistan. Consequently it remains to be seen whether New Delhi will try to maintain support for Chabahar despite US sanctions and the risk of worsening its relationship with the Trump administration.
NORTH KOREA
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung claimed at an investor event in New York on Thursday that North Korea is close to completing development of an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach anywhere in the United States. It’s unclear if he was referring to the Hwasong-19, which the North Korean military tested last year. That device is thought to have the range to strike any part of the US but there are still questions about whether Pyongyang has surmounted the technical hurdles involved with protecting a nuclear warhead through the atmospheric re-entry process. Lee, who seems eager to try to revive diplomacy with North Korea by capitalizing on the supposedly warm relationship between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un, also warned that North Korea may be intent on exporting its “excess” nuclear warheads at some point down the road.
AFRICA
SUDAN
The Sudan Doctors Network issued a statement on Thursday saying that at least 23 people have died of malnutrition-related causes in the besieged city of Al-Fashir this month. That figure includes five pregnant women and an unknown number of children. Much like starvation in Gaza what’s happening in Al-Fashir is the culmination of months of blockade and deprivation finally pushing the humanitarian crisis past what may be the point of no return. In this case, even if the siege is resolved with the Rapid Support Forces militant group taking the city there’s little reason to expect the humanitarian situation to improve.
Meanwhile, a Sky News investigative report has uncovered new evidence that the RSF is being backed to the hilt by the United Arab Emirates. Its main source is an RSF “intelligence officer” who told the outlet that “in the beginning, it was the Russians — Wagner and the state. Now, they tell me it is the UAE supporting the RSF.” In return the RSF is shipping gold to the UAE from Sudanese mines that are under its control. A “senior Chadian military officer” also confirmed that Chad has been a conduit for “mass arms smuggling to the RSF.” None of this is particularly new but it just adds to the pile of evidence countering Emirati claims that they’re not supporting either Sudanese side.
MALI
The jihadist blockade in western Mali has caused “a drastic drop” in fuel supplies in central Mali’s Mopti region, according to regional officials. Unsurprisingly that’s caused the price of gasoline and diesel to spike throughout that region. There’s still no indication as to whether or when Mali’s ruling junta intends to try to break that blockade.
SOMALIA
At The New Humanitarian, researcher Robert Kluijver writes that al-Shabab is better at governing than the Somali government:
The group’s influence extends far beyond its rural strongholds. It directly governs nearly a quarter of all district capitals in Somalia, and co-governs almost all areas nominally held by the federal government outside the autonomous region of Puntland and the breakaway republic of Somaliland.
Recent studies by independent research organisations such as the Hiraal Institute, Saferworld, and the International Crisis Group consistently show that Somalis view the group’s governance as efficient, compared to the corruption-plagued federal system.
This uncomfortable reality – that an internationally designated terrorist group outperforms Somalia’s government in basic governance – also emerges from my experience working as deputy director for the International NGO Safety Organisation in Somalia from 2016 to 2018, and extensive field research conducted in the country for my PhD between 2019 and 2022.
MALAWI
Former Malawian President Peter Mutharika is now president-elect, as he emerged victorious over incumbent Lazarus Chakwera in the country’s general election earlier this month. A dismal economy apparently proved decisive, as Mutharika not only won but he did so fairly handily despite predictions of a close race. Mutharika’s Democratic Progressive Party also won the National Assembly contest, though its 81 seats are well shy of a majority in the 229 seat legislature so it will need to form some kind of working majority to pass legislation.
SEYCHELLES
Voters in the Seychelles went to the polls from Thursday through Saturday for a general election whose presidential vote basically pitted centrist incumbent Wavel Ramkalawan against center-left former parliament speaker Patrick Herminie, alongside several minor candidates. Herminie “won” but finished shy of an outright majority, so he and Ramkalawan will head to an October 9-11 runoff. The margin between them was narrow enough (a bit over two points) that it may be difficult to predict how the second round will go.
EUROPE
EUROPEAN UNION
European Union defense commissioner Andrius Kubilius told The Financial Times on Friday that the bloc’s defense ministers have decided to create a linked drone defense system in response to several apparent Russian violations of EU airspace in recent weeks. In addition to reported violations of Polish and Romanian airspace earlier this month, Danish authorities say they detected drones near “several military locations” over the weekend and have temporarily closed their airspace to drone activity in response while they host an EU summit over the coming week. They haven’t outright blamed Russia but that seems to be the implication. NATO also says it is boosting its assets in the Baltic region to try to improve its drone detection capabilities following the Danish sightings and a similar incident in Norway.
UKRAINE
The Russian military unleashed another massive drone and missile barrage on Ukraine overnight, involving some 500 of the former and over 40 of the latter. The strikes killed at least four people in Kyiv and seemingly indicated yet again that this conflict is still far from a resolution. On Saturday, Russian officials claimed the capture of three more Ukrainian villages, one in Dnipropetrovsk oblast and two in Donetsk oblast. And there are new concerns about Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest nuclear facility in Europe, which had been without power for three days as of Saturday after the its last remaining electrical line was damaged and then cut on Tuesday. Zaporizhzhia’s reactors are offline but the plant requires electricity to maintain its coolant and safety systems. The facility can operate on emergency generators but obviously that’s not ideal because they can’t last indefinitely and if they fail there’s no backup.
Elsewhere, Donald Trump took to social media on Tuesday to declare, abruptly, that he now believes that Ukraine can—with NATO’s help—retake all of the territory it has lost to Russia. He offered no rationale for this wild shift in his interpretation of the conflict other than to say that he’s been “getting to know and fully understand” the war and its economic impact on Russia. The notion that Donald Trump “fully understands” anything is even more delusional than the idea that Ukraine can retake all of its lost territory. What Trump really seemed to be doing with his pronouncement was washing his hands of the war and leaving responsibility for maintaining the Ukrainian side with NATO’s European members. Having failed to broker an end to the conflict he’s now reduced the US role to that of arms dealer, which he’s happy to maintain as long as the Europeans are able to pay. Either way he’s achieved the goal of disengaging the US from active involvement, which was his primary concern.
MOLDOVA
Moldovan voters went to the polls on Sunday to elect a new parliament in a race that appeared to favor the ruling Party of Action and Solidarity, though there were questions as to whether or not it could hold on to its sole legislative majority. The counting is not entirely complete but it would appear that PAS has retained its majority, winning 54 seats. That’s a net loss of nine seats but still enough for a majority in the 101 seat parliament.
AMERICAS
VENEZUELA
NBC News reported on Friday that the US military is “drawing up options to target drug traffickers inside Venezuela, and strikes within that country’s borders could potentially begin in a matter of weeks.” Donald Trump hasn’t approved any strikes on Venezuela as yet, but given that he’s comfortable extrajudicially/illegally executing boaters in the southern Caribbean on the alleged suspicion that they’re carrying Venezuelan drugs it doesn’t seem like a huge leap to start bombing Venezuela itself unprovoked. Underpinning this entire campaign is a desire to weaken Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, either to hasten his removal from office or at least to force him to make unspecified concessions to the US.
COLOMBIA
The Trump administration revoked Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s visa on Friday after he spoke at a pro-Palestine demonstration in New York City and called on US soldiers to “disobey” Donald Trump’s orders. Petro was in New York for the UN General Assembly session and subsequently accused the administration of violating its commitment as UN host nation to allow foreign leaders into the country to attend UN events. He called over the weekend for moving the UN headquarters “to a more democratic place.” He then suggested moving it to Doha, capital of the very authoritarian state of Qatar, which doesn’t seem to match that democratic principle. Maybe he meant it ironically.
UNITED STATES
Finally (and briefly, because we’re running out of space):
Donald Trump on Saturday announced that he’s deploying military personnel to the city of Portland and potentially to other immigration facilities around the country with authorization to use “full force, if necessary” to protect those sites. The impetus here is the major protests that have taken place outside Immigration and Customs Enforcement facilities across the country and a shooting at a Texas ICE detention site on Wednesday. It’s unclear whether he’s planning to use active duty or National Guard forces but this deployment appears to mimic the one he ordered in California earlier this year to protect federal offices rather than the full takeover of law enforcement that he undertook in Washington DC and has threatened to replicate elsewhere.
Trump announced on Friday that he’s imposing a “100 percent tariff” on pharmaceutical products manufactured overseas effective October 1, unless the companies that make them are in the process of building new manufacturing facilities in the US. This is could be devastating to Americans who take the affected drugs, though I’m not sure anybody has a good estimate as to which drugs are acutely at risk. He’s also imposing new tariffs on furniture and building supplies.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered hundreds of US flag officers to attend what sounds like it will be a pep rally in Quantico, Virginia, on Tuesday. He’s planning to give some sort of speech on the “warrior ethos” (I’m not joking) and according to ABC News the event “could last just 30 minutes.” That’s definitely worth the expense of flying and boarding all those senior military officers and their staff on short notice. Trump initially said he would not be there but has now indicated that he will attend, raising the possibility that he and Hegseth could ask the assembled officers to take some sort of loyalty oath to the president personally. That would frankly be terrifying but not all that surprising for this administration.
My condolences for your family Derek.