World roundup: August 21 2025
Stories from Israel-Palestine, Ukraine, Mexico, and elsewhere
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TODAY IN HISTORY
August 21, 1415: Portuguese forces under King John I and his son Henrique, the future “Prince Henry the Navigator,” capture the city of Ceuta from the Moroccan Marinid dynasty. Ceuta was the first possession in what would become the Portuguese Empire and served as a staging ground for the Portuguese to capture several other cities around the northwest African coast. It’s a Spanish city today—Madrid kept it after the 16th-17th century Iberian Union broke apart.
August 21, 1791: Slaves in Saint-Domingue attend a Vodou ceremony in the evening and afterward begin a mass uprising. This insurrection marked the start of the Haitian Revolution, the most successful slave revolt in the Americas. Haiti won its independence from France, effective on January 1, 1804. The impact of the revolution on slavery in the Americas continues to be a matter of scholarly debate, but at the time the uprising so terrified US slaveholders that the Jefferson administration imposed an embargo on Haiti that remained in place until 1862.
MIDDLE EAST
LEBANON
The Lebanese government has begun disarming militant groups operating in the country’s Palestinian refugee camps, starting with the Burj al-Barajneh camp in the southern Beirut suburbs. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas agreed during a visit to Lebanon earlier this year that his Fatah Party would be at the front of the line to hand over its weapons, in hopes that it might inspire other factions to do likewise. It’s unclear how many of those other factions, if any, have agreed to follow suit and give up their own arms.
Disarming the camps could be viewed as the opening act before the Lebanese government attempts to disarm Hezbollah, something it’s aiming to do (or at least to develop a plan for doing) by the end of this year. On that front, Axios reported that “the Trump administration has asked Israel to reduce ‘non-urgent’ military action in Lebanon.” The idea would be to justify a government move against Hezbollah with other factions within Lebanon. For the government to agree to disarm Hezbollah only to have the Israelis continue to attack Lebanon at will would be discrediting.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
This may not come as much of a surprise to anyone who has observed events since October 7, 2023, but apparently even according to the Israeli government’s own figures the vast majority of casualties in Gaza have been civilians:
Data from an internal Israeli intelligence database indicates that at least 83 percent of Palestinians killed in Israel’s onslaught on Gaza were civilians, an investigation by +972 Magazine, Local Call, and the Guardian can reveal.
Figures obtained from the classified database — which records the deaths of militants from Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) — contradict by a huge margin the public statements of Israeli army and government officials throughout the war, which have generally claimed a 1:1 or 2:1 ratio of civilian to militant casualties. Instead, the classified data backs up the findings of several studies suggesting Israel’s bombardment of Gaza has killed civilians at a rate with few parallels in modern warfare.
The Israeli army confirmed the existence of the database, which is managed by the Military Intelligence Directorate (known by the Hebrew acronym “Aman”). Multiple intelligence sources familiar with the database said the army views it as the only authoritative tally of militant casualty figures. In the words of one of them: “There’s no other place to check.”
That 83 percent figure is calculated based on the overall death toll (the one reported by the health ministry in Gaza, which the Israelis privately consider to be accurate even as they publicly disclaim it) as of June (around 53,000 at that time) and is the conservative estimate based on uncertainty in the Israeli kill list. The Israeli tally may be an undercount, as “it does not include Hamas or PIJ operatives who were killed but could not be identified by name, Gazans who took part in fighting but were not officially members of Hamas or PIJ, nor political figures in Hamas such as mayors and government ministers whom Israel also considers legitimate targets (in violation of international law),” but then the overall health ministry death toll (which just topped 62,000) is also believed to be a significant undercount so the ratio of civilian-to-militant casualties could actually be worse than the “extremely high” figure that +972 is estimating.
Meanwhile, Jeremy Scahill at Drop Site is reporting that the ceasefire proposal to which Hamas has now agreed contains “a series of major concessions” from the group’s previous negotiating position. According to his information Hamas has agreed to a larger Israeli military presence in Gaza during the initial 60-day phase and has dropped its demand that the “Gaza Humanitarian Foundation” have nothing to do with aid distribution over that same period. Basically Hamas’s position is that if the Israeli government doesn’t agree to this deal then it was never going to agree to any deal, its past rhetoric notwithstanding. On that note, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said later on Thursday that he’s authorized the reopening of negotiations. While that process plays out, the Israeli military (IDF) pulverized Gaza City overnight and through Thursday as it continues ramping up to its planned conquest/obliteration of whatever remains of the area. Israeli forces killed at least 48 Palestinians throughout the day, including several in an airstrike on a tent camp for displaced persons in Deir al-Balah.
IRAN
The US Treasury Department on Thursday blacklisted 13 companies and eight shipping vessels, most of them connected to a Greek magnate named Antonios Margaritis who has allegedly been facilitating Iranian oil exports in violation of US sanctions. The State Department also blacklisted two Chinese oil terminal operators for allegedly facilitating the importation of Iranian product.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is scheduled to have a phone call with the FMs of the “E3” (France, Germany, and the UK) on Friday to discuss the possibility that they will invoke the “snapback” mechanism in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal to reimpose United Nations sanctions that were suspended under that agreement. The E3 has said it intends to invoke that clause by the end of this month unless the Iranian government either negotiates a new nuclear deal or agrees to an extension of the 2015 deal’s terms—which are set to expire in October. Along with the extension Iran would be obliged to resume nuclear talks with the US and restore its relationship with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Needless to say none of those things is likely to happen in the next ten days, so the question is what Iran would need to do to convince the E3 that it is addressing the group’s concerns.
ASIA
AZERBAIJAN
The Azerbaijani government is warning that declining water levels in the Caspian Sea are threatening port operations as well as native sturgeon and seal populations. Government data estimates that the Caspian is diminishing by “20-30” centimeters every year at this point and has lost 0.93 meters over the past five years. While climate change is undoubtedly a factor, Azerbaijani officials also blame Russian dams on the Volga River (though to be fair, with relations between Azerbaijan and Russia at an ebb it’s politically convenient to drop this problem in Moscow’s lap).
PAKISTAN
Part of the Trump administration’s trade deal with Pakistan involves US development of alleged oil reserves in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province. Donald Trump decreed a couple of weeks ago that the exploitation of those reserves might have Pakistan “selling oil to India” someday, though that remark may have been less a prediction than a barb aimed at Indian officials with whom Trump is currently irritated. The thing is, as Inkstick’s Marcus Andreopoulos notes, there is no reason to think that Pakistan actually has significant oil reserves to exploit:
By agreeing to assist in oil extraction, Trump is continuing his expedient repositioning in the region. Still in doing so, the US president is also overlooking the inevitable strategic pitfalls that lie ahead of this move. While Balochistan serves as a significant source of natural gas in Pakistan, the prospect of oil in the province has long eluded successive governments. Islamabad has repeatedly pointed towards unproven assessments that the country, and its surrounding waters, could be home to billions of barrels of untapped oil, only for each claim to eventually be disproved by unsuccessful drill attempts.
In 2019, it took just a matter of hours for Pakistan’s Petroleum Division to discredit then-Prime Minister Imran Khan’s claim of “massive reserves.” As the country’s largest import, oil remains an elusive commodity for Pakistan, and its domestic production could go some way to alleviating strains on its struggling economy.
Although the first part of this new oil collaboration has seen oil shipments flow from the US to Pakistan, rather than the other way around. Nonetheless, while Islamabad’s motivations for the deal are understandable, it remains puzzling why Trump has chosen to involve the US in what has thus far been little more than a chimera.
If past failures are not enough of a warning for the US, China’s disinterest in the matter and its willingness to allow Pakistan to broker such a deal with the US should sound the alarm in Washington. China has dominated nearly every aspect of the Pakistan economy in recent years, investing in infrastructure, energy, and security projects, and in turn increasing Islamabad’s dependence on Beijing. For this reason, it is unlikely that China would not have had first refusal on any oil exploration and mining projects in the country.
Nevertheless, Trump’s pleasure in closing a deal with Pakistan and his anger at India have turned US policy in South Asia on its head. Instead of drifting away from Pakistan in order to woo India into an anti-China alliance, the US now seems to be on friendlier terms with Pakistan while China and India are improving their ties.
AFRICA
SUDAN
Sudan’s military government has announced major new restrictions on the buying and selling of gold, which appears to be primarily intended to bolster the very weak Sudanese pound and maybe punish the UAE for backing the rival Rapid Support Forces militant group. Gold became the critical support pillar for the Sudanese economy when South Sudan (and its oil) became independent in 2011, and especially under the present circumstances there are major concerns about smuggling and other illicit activity that might remove gold from the country without government oversight. Beyond that, almost all of Sudan’s exported gold eventually finds its way to market in the UAE, which has been arming and supporting the RSF throughout its war against the Sudanese military. Gold exports to the UAE from RSF-controlled areas will undoubtedly continue but the military has been looking for alternative destinations for the gold it controls.
NIGER
The Nigerien military appears to be claiming that its forces killed Boko Haram leader Bakura Doro in what it called a “surgical operation” in the Lake Chad region last Friday. It seems clear that it did target him in an airstrike that day but what is not clear from the reporting is how (or whether) it has actually confirmed his death. There’s been no comment from Boko Haram as far as I know. Bakura has been credited with rebuilding the group after it was nearly wiped out by its Islamic State West Africa Province splinter group back in 2021-2022.
KENYA
The Kenyan government is reportedly negotiating with Beijing over the prospect of converting a $5 billion loan to Chinese yen. Apparently this will cut the interest rate on that debt in half so it makes financial sense from Kenya’s perspective. It’s also a boost to Chinese efforts to make the yen a more international currency at the dollar’s expense.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
According to The Financial Times, the cumulative effect of several Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil facilities is pushing the price of gasoline up and creating shortages in some parts of Russia. Strikes on Russia’s rail infrastructure have also apparently contributed to the price crunch as they’ve pushed more people to drive and thereby raised demand for gasoline. The Russian government banned gasoline exports late last month in an attempt to increase domestic supply.
UKRAINE
The Russian military undertook another massive overnight bombardment of Ukraine on Wednesday night into Thursday, firing hundreds of projectiles in its most active night since mid-July. At least one person was killed and dozens wounded, including several in a strike on a US-owned manufacturing facility in the western Ukrainian city of Mukachevo.
If there’s going to be a diplomatic resolution to this conflict it may have to come without noted peacemaker Donald Trump’s involvement, at least for a little while. According to The Guardian Trump is telling his advisers that he’s “taking a step back” from Russia-Ukraine diplomacy after his two big interventions over the past week failed to accomplish anything of note. In particular, instead of trying to arrange a summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, or scheduling a three-way summit involving them and Trump, he’s going to let Putin and Zelensky schedule their own meeting and then try to organize a “trilateral” followup.
There may be some value in letting the principals take the wheel at this point though I imagine Trump is also feeling frustrated and maybe bored given that his bit push for a ceasefire and/or peace deal fizzled out. In terms of whether or not there’s any potential for diplomacy with or without Trump, Reuters reported on Thursday that Putin showed up at his summit with Trump on Friday with essentially the same list of maximalist demands he’s expressed publicly since reinvading Ukraine in 2022. The only concession he’s made involves dropping (maybe) his demand for the portions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts that the Russian military does not currently hold, which is not that much of a concession given that there’s no guarantee that the Russians would be able to take that territory if the war continued. Regardless of your position on the reasonableness of Putin’s demands a peace deal on these contours, particularly absent the sort of “security guarantee” that Putin would almost certainly reject, is going to be very difficult for Zelensky to accept.
AMERICAS
COLOMBIA
Two violent incidents in Colombia left at least 13 people dead in total on Thursday. First, a drone strike brought down a police helicopter over a rural area in Colombia’s Antioquia department, killing at least eight officers. Later in the day a truck bomb outside a military base near the city of Cali killed at least five people and left “dozens” more wounded. Suspicion appears to be falling on elements of the Estado Mayor Central faction of ex-Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) personnel for both attacks.
UPDATE: The overall death toll in these two incidents had risen to 18 as of Friday afternoon, as a sixth person died in the Cali truck bombing and four more police officers were confirmed killed in the helicopter attack.
MEXICO
At his newsletter, Ken Klippenstein reported on Wednesday that “the Trump administration has directed the military to prepare for lethal strikes against cartel targets inside Mexico,” according to “three military sources.” Plans for such operations are to “be ready by mid-September.” The US military’s Northern Command is reportedly spearheading the planning. It sounds like NORTHCOM is leaving the option open for the Mexican government to participate but is also preparing to take “unilateral” action—which would undoubtedly damage US-Mexican relations.
UNITED STATES
Finally, with the demand for “critical minerals” still rising and amid questions as to how the US can satisfy its demand for those materials given the Chinese chokehold on the market, a new study suggests that current US mine operators should try combing through their trash:
The United States is home to dozens of active mines. Some extract copper, while others dig for iron. Whatever the resource, however, it usually makes up a small fraction of the rock pulled from the ground. The rest is typically ignored. Wasted.
“We’re only producing a few commodities,” said Elizabeth Holley, a professor of mining engineering at the Colorado School of Mines. “The question is: What else is in those rocks?”
The answer: a lot.
In a study published today by the journal Science, Holley and her colleagues aimed to quantify what else is in those rocks. They found that, across 70 critical elements at 54 active mines, the potential for recovery is enormous. There is enough lithium in one year of U.S. mine waste, for example, to power 10 million electric vehicles. For manganese, it’s enough for 99 million. Those figures far surpass both U.S. import levels of those elements and current demand for them.
Not only could better waste reclamation go a long way toward meeting US mineral needs, it would also go a long way toward cleaning up a very dirty industry. This seems like a clear win-win, which is why my assumption is that nothing will be done about it. While Donald Trump is definitely interested in minerals this may smack too much of environmental action for him to seriously pursue it.
Thank you for using the spelling "Vodou" in Today in History. It's—well, respectful.