World roundup: May 29 2025
Stories from Israel-Palestine, China, the European Union, and elsewhere
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TODAY IN HISTORY
May 29, 1453: The city of Constantinople falls to the besieging Ottomans, marking the end of the Byzantine Empire and, if you prefer the longer view, the Roman Empire.
May 29, 1658: At the Battle of Samugarh, not far from the Indian city of Agra, an army commanded by Mughal heir apparent Dara Shikoh is soundly defeated by forces allied with two of his brothers, Aurangzeb and Murad Baksh. The reigning emperor, Shah Jahan, was critically ill, which sparked a civil war over the succession. Dara Shikoh’s defeat was so comprehensive that he was not only removed as his father’s regent, but Aurangzeb was actually crowned the new emperor. Shah Jahan then recovered, but Aurangzeb declared that his father was incapable of ruling the empire and had him more or less placed under medical arrest. This turn of events proved fateful for the Mughal Empire. Aurangzeb took the empire to its greatest territorial extent, but he broke with his predecessors’ religious tolerance and began persecuting India’s Hindu majority. This policy shift began to lay the groundwork for the Mughal Empire’s eventual destruction. In case you’re wondering, Shah Jahan lived for around seven and a half years after his deposition, so it seems he wasn’t all that medically infirm.
May 29, 1807: Ottoman Sultan Selim III is overthrown in a coup instigated by his own Janissary forces, fearful of his plans to create a new elite military unit meant in part to supplant them.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
New US Syria envoy Thomas Barrack visited Damascus on Thursday, making him the senior-most US official to travel to Syria (at least in an official capacity) in several years. In an important symbolic gesture he raised the US flag over the Damascus embassy, though the facility is still closed as the US and Syria have not restored diplomatic relations. Barrack pledged to remove Syria from the US government’s “State Sponsor of Terrorism” list—though that will require congressional action so it’s not something the Trump administration can do unilaterally—and proposed that the Syrian and Israeli governments agree to “a non-aggression agreement” and “talk about boundaries and borders.” Those would be the Syrian borders that the Israeli military is currently violating, I assume.
Barrack’s visit coincided with a couple of new geopolitical developments. The Turkish government announced the formation of a “joint coordination center” in Damascus to combat Islamic State. The center, which apparently opened for business on May 19, involves the Jordanian government as well as the Syrian and Turkish governments and may eventually include some participation from the Iraqi and Lebanese governments, which have both participated in recent talks about regional anti-IS collaboration. The Turkish government views this project as a way to entice the Trump administration to cut off any remaining US support for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces group, whose stated raison d’être is to counter IS. And the Syrian government reached a deal with a four-company “consortium” to add some 5000 megawatts of capacity to the country’s power grid. The agreement, worth an estimated $7 billion, is led by the Qatari firm UCC Holding and will see the construction of four new Syrian gas turbines as well as a solar power plant.
Speaking of IS, later on Thursday the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that a bombing hit a military patrol in southern Syria’s Suwaydah province on Wednesday night, killing one person and wounding three. IS claimed the attack, which may be its first targeting the interim Syrian government’s security forces.
LEBANON
An Israeli drone strike killed one man in the southern Lebanese village of Nabatieh al-Fawqa on Thursday. The Israeli military (IDF) claimed that it was targeting a Hezbollah operative but the village mayor insisted that the strike killed a “municipal worker operating a water well.”
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
In something of an abrupt turnaround from just a few days ago. a new temporary Gaza truce may be “imminent” according to Al-Monitor’s Rina Bassist. Trump administration envoy Steve Witkoff submitted a new version of the framework he’d proposed over the weekend—the one that Hamas accepted and Israel rejected—that already apparently has Israeli approval. Hamas’s public reaction has been notably unenthusiastic, though Bassist cited reporting by the Saudi outlet Al Arabiya that Hamas has agreed to Witkoff’s terms. Presumably we’ll know one way or the other by the time anybody reads this.
Drop Site News reports that it has seen Witkoff’s revised proposal and the upshot is that it substantially waters down language that could have been seen as binding the Israeli government to adopting a long-term ceasefire and withdrawing its forces from Gaza. It starts with the same 60 day truce and partial captive release as the earlier proposal but appears to replace specific details about next steps with a statement urging the Israeli government and Hamas to negotiate in “good faith” on adopting an indefinite ceasefire. Since the Israeli government is committed to ethnically cleansing Gaza, a goal that would be undermined by a long-term ceasefire and military withdrawal, there’s no reason to think it will negotiate in “good faith” and it’s unlikely that this framework would last much beyond that 60 day window. Nevertheless, a temporary respite (especially if it involves another influx of humanitarian aid) is not nothing, and given the extent of the suffering in Gaza right now Hamas may feel compelled to accept even though this framework doesn’t meet its demands.
[BREAKING: Just before I sent out tonight’s newsletter the BBC reported that a “senior Hamas official” had told it that the group intends to reject Witkoff’s new framework. This is not a formal rejection and you can only trust a single anonymous source but so much, so take it with a grain or two of salt. Still, given how watered down this new proposal was according to Drop Site it would not be surprising at all if Hamas rejected it.]
In other items:
The “Gaza Humanitarian Foundation” is apparently in some legal hot water in Switzerland, where it is registered. Swiss authorities have told CBS News that the enterprise was “not fulfilling various legal obligations” after the abrupt removal of the lone Swiss national from its three-member board of directors. Consequently the GHF now says it’s shutting down its Swiss arm and will operate entirely out of the United States, where it is also registered. The Swiss registration was supposed to appeal to foreign donors who were unwilling to support an entirely US-based Gaza relief operation, but as the international enthusiasm for the GHF has been nil anyway this probably won’t be an issue.
The Israeli government announced the “creation” of a whopping 22 West Bank settlements on Thursday, including four along the territory’s border with Jordan. That’s a shocking number for a single expansion and reflects the degree to which Israeli leaders now think they have impunity to effectively annex the West Bank thanks to the Trump administration. Finance Minister and settlements guru Bezalel Smotrich referred to the expansion as “a strategic move that prevents the establishment of a Palestinian state that would endanger Israel,” a statement that could be characterized as a “mask off” moment if there had ever been a mask on this policy in the first place.
IRAN
Barak Ravid at Axios is reporting that Donald Trump heard an earful during his trip to the Persian Gulf earlier this month from Arab leaders who do not want the US and/or Israel to undertake military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities. It seems that all three of his interlocutors—Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed—urged him against an attack that could put their countries in the middle of a regional war. That’s presumably part of the reason why Trump discouraged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from attacking Iran in their phone call last week. It may also have something to do with his administration’s apparent decision to pursue a vague “statement of principles” agreement with the Iranians that would affirm their negotiating aims without addressing any of the major remaining gaps—particularly over Iran’s uranium enrichment program.
ASIA
PAKISTAN
Security forces raided a Pakistani Taliban (TTP) “hideout” in Pakistani Kashmir overnight in an operation that left at least four militants and at least two police officers dead. Later on Thursday a “shootout” between TTP militants and Pakistani soldiers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province left at least five of the former and four of the latter dead. Details on that latter incident are minimal.
BANGLADESH
The Bangladeshi government recalled its ambassador from Myanmar in what appears to be the fallout of an announcement it made last week that it has opened relations with the rebel Arakan Army group. Bangladeshi officials acknowledged that they’re communicating “informally” with the AA, which controls much of Myanmar’s Rakhine State, on issues related to border security. A combination of hunger and violence by both the Myanmar military and the AA continues to drive Rohingya refugees across the border into Bangladesh, which is something Bangladeshi authorities would like to stop. There’s been talk of opening a humanitarian corridor from Bangladesh into Rakhine to support the Rohingya but the idea has met pushback from the Bangladeshi military.
CAMBODIA
The Cambodian and Thai militaries agreed to stand down on Thursday, one day after a skirmish in a disputed border area left one Cambodian soldier dead. The commanders of each country’s military agreed to fine a “peaceful solution” to the dispute via joint border mechanisms that are already in place.
CHINA
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared on Wednesday that the Trump administration intends to begin revoking student visas for Chinese nationals, who I guess are stealing our precious supplies of education or whatever convoluted justification we’ve decided to adopt for what is essentially xenophobia. Also on Wednesday, The Financial Times and other outlets reported that the administration has moved to block the sale of software used in semiconductor design to Chinese entities. As The Washington Post notes, whatever good feelings may have resulted from those US-China trade talks in Switzerland earlier this month appear to have dissipated pretty quickly and neither country seems to be doing very much to follow up their words with actions to reverse their mounting trade war. Making it harder for Chinese and other international students to attend US institutions is only going to intensify the bad blood, and in a way that will likely benefit Chinese universities to boot.
OCEANIA
SAMOA
Samoan Prime Minister Fiamē Naomi Mataʻafa announced on Wednesday that the country’s parliament will dissolve on June 3 ahead of an as-yet unscheduled snap election. She’s been unable to pass a budget after her FAST party expelled her earlier this year, so this move was not unexpected.
AFRICA
NIGER
Jihadist militants attacked a military unit in southwestern Niger’s Dosso region on Monday, killing “several” soldiers according to AFP and “up to 44” soldiers according to a regional journalistic network. The attackers were apparently members of Katibat Hanifa, an affiliate of the al-Qaeda linked Jamaʿat Nusrat al-Islam wa’l-Muslimin network that is particularly active in western Niger and eastern Burkina Faso.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
Since returning to the DRC a few days ago, former President Joseph Kabila seems to be making himself at home in the M23-controlled city of Goma:
Former President Joseph Kabila has returned to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, just days after he lost his immunity amid accusations he has helped armed rebels fighting in the eastern DRC, according to the Reuters and AFP news agencies.
Kabila, on Thursday, was visiting the eastern city of Goma, which had been seized by the Rwanda-backed M23 militia along with several other areas in the resource-rich east of the country earlier this year.
A team of AFP journalists saw Kabila meet local religious figures in the presence of M23’s spokesperson Lawrence Kanyuka, without giving a statement.
Citing three unidentified sources close to Kabila, Reuters also said the ex-president held talks with locals in Goma.
Kabila, who could face treason charges over his relationship with the rebels, is apparently making common cause with them. AFP cited a member of his “entourage” who said that he and M23 have the “same goal,” that being the overthrow of current Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi.
EUROPE
EUROPEAN UNION
In a development that is probably not great for EU cohesion but that the bloc’s internal dysfunction probably made inevitable, World Politics Review’s Ulrike Franke notes the return of “great power” politics to Europe:
After decades during which Europeans aimed to build up the geopolitical EU, it appears that the big European powers are back as main players in geopolitics. And as the big European countries are becoming more important, the EU as an actor diminishes. Of course, these cooperations neither explicitly nor implicitly aim to sideline the EU—there is no such plot. In fact, the Nancy treaty includes a section on cooperation within the EU, and the Treaty of Aachen notes that the cooperation between France and Germany aims to strengthen the EU. And the U.K.’s recently concluded agreement with the EU was celebrated as a reset of relations, 10 years after Brexit.
Still, it is striking how much more the big powers are looking toward each other to deal with the geopolitical challenges of the moment, having largely abandoned the aim of making the EU the prime European foreign policy representative. In at least one aspect, the bilateral treaties weaken the EU – and arguably NATO. Namely, through the creation of new security guarantees. The Aachen treaty notes that France and Germany “shall afford one another any means of assistance or aid within their power, including military force, in the event of an armed attack on their territories,” while the Nancy treaty stipulates that “in the event of armed aggression on their territories, the Parties shall assist each other, including by military means.” Although there is nothing wrong with these clauses per se, they raise the question of why they exist at all. After all, NATO’s Article 5 and the EU’s Article 42.7 already stipulate the same assurances. And while the treaties acknowledge these clauses, one is left to wonder whether the extra assurances indicate—or create—a doubt that Articles 5 and 42.7 are not sufficiently reliable after all.
That Europe’s great(ish) powers are becoming more relevant again feels in line with the times. Trump’s vision of the world, in which big powers dominate their spheres of influence, has aptly been called a throwback to the 19th century. A return of Europe’s powers fits with this new, old world.
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UKRAINE
The Russian government says it has not received a Ukrainian response to its offer to hold another round of peace talks in Istanbul next week. Ukrainian officials seem displeased by a couple of things—one, the Russians still haven’t submitted the “peace memorandum” they agreed to draft after the last round of peace talks earlier this month; and two, the Russians are still planning to send a low-level delegation that won’t be empowered to make any substantive decisions. Moscow says it will present its memorandum in person in Istanbul, but the Ukrainians are insisting that it be submitted now to give their negotiators a chance to review it.
PORTUGAL
Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa appointed Prime Minister Luís Montenegro to another term (at least in theory) on Thursday, after the final results of this month’s snap election showed that his Democratic Alliance bloc had emerged with a plurality of seats in the Assembly of the Republic. Montenegro will once again lead a minority government unless he’s able to negotiate some sort of coalition or de facto coalition agreement with another party or parties. He’s already ruled out working with the far-right Chega party, which is now the second-largest parliamentary bloc.
AMERICAS
UNITED STATES
A US federal appeals court on Thursday stayed the previous day’s Court of International Trade ruling that Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs were unconstitutional. The temporary ruling means the tariffs can go into effect pending the outcome of the full appeals process, though since Trump suspended those tariffs himself shortly after imposing them the practical effect here is negligible in the short term.
Finally, Elon Musk’s co-presidency has officially come to an end. The emerald mine heir announced on Wednesday that his appointment as a “special government employee” had expired, and while it would have been trivially easy for the Trump administration to keep him around anyway the proverbial writing has been on the wall for a while now as far as that’s concerned. Earlier this week Musk broke pretty sharply with Trump over the latter’s proposed 2026 budget, which is projected to balloon the deficit while also causing a massive upward redistribution of wealth (you can probably guess which of those bothered The World’s Richest Man). The impact of Musk’s work in the “Department of Government Efficiency” will take time to fully process but the early returns are that it gutted a lot of federal agencies to chaotic effect while not saving nearly as much money as it claimed:
In February, a Washington Post analysis found that DOGE — which stands for the Department of Government Efficiency — had significantly overstated its claim of $55 billion in federal savings. That figure included more than 1,100 contracts that the agency said it had canceled, but many of those were already completed and fully paid. DOGE modified the data after its release that month and cut its originally listed savings by $9.3 billion.
DOGE has caused chaos in the federal bureaucracy, as its push to eliminate jobs and programs not ideologically aligned with Trump administration goals has resulted in entire departments and agencies effectively being wiped out and mass firings that have traumatized government workers.
Federal unions and public interest groups have alleged in a lawsuit that DOGE is violating rules on transparency, disclosure and hiring. Separately, 14 states have sued, claiming Musk was improperly appointed.
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