World roundup: May 20 2025
Stories from Israel-Palestine, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Bolivia, and elsewhere
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PROGRAMMING NOTE: This coming weekend is Memorial Day weekend in the US and I will be taking a few days’ break from the newsletter. We’ll be on our regular schedule through Thursday and then pick back up again on Tuesday. Thanks!
TODAY IN HISTORY
May 20, 1498: Portuguese explorer Vasco da Gama arrives at the port of Calicut (modern Kozhikode), completing his expedition from Lisbon around the African coast to India. Da Gama, who was expecting to extract favorable trading concessions from the ruler of Calicut, found instead that his token gifts were too shabby to win him any goodwill and Muslim traders spread scandalous gossip about the Portuguese arrivals. He left with only a smattering of local trade goods, but needless to say the opening of the trade route had some very long-lasting repercussions.
May 20, 1927: Abdulaziz Al Saud, also known as Ibn Saud, concludes the Treaty of Jeddah with the United Kingdom. Under the terms of the treaty, the UK recognized both Ibn Saud’s independence and his sovereignty over the kingdoms of the Nejd and the Hejaz, which he merged into Saudi Arabia in 1932. The treaty effectively recognized the Saudi conquest of the Hejaz at the expense of Britain’s Hashemite clients, while reaffirming an earlier commitment that Ibn Saud had made not to attack British protectorates in the Persian Gulf.
INTERNATIONAL
World Health Organization member states reached agreement on Tuesday on a long-gestating treaty governing pandemic response efforts. The main provision appears to be the establishment of a common pool of tests, medicines, and vaccines to support poorer nations in hopes of containing future pandemics more effectively than humanity managed to contain COVID. The US was glaringly absent from the accord, Donald Trump having begun the process of pulling out of the WHO shortly after he took office in January. However, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy did manage to take time out of his busy schedule of doing pushups and running over animals with his car to call into the WHO meeting to let everybody there know how much he thinks they suck, so that was nice of him. I’m sure they were sorry he couldn’t be there in person.
MIDDLE EAST
TURKEY
It’s still early, but the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) doesn’t seem terribly thrilled with how its new peace initiative is being received by the Turkish government. Spokesperson Zagros Hiwa gave an interview to AFP on Tuesday in which he noted that “the Turkish state has not given any guarantees and taken any measure for facilitating the process” while continuing to attack PKK members. He also criticized Ankara’s proposal to exile PKK leaders and called on Turkish officials to take steps to improve the conditions of PKK founder Abdullah Öcalan’s incarceration.
SYRIA
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights is reporting that the Russian military’s Hmeimim airbase in northwestern Syria’s Latakia province came under attack on Tuesday by a group “utilizing medium and heavy machine guns.” There were apparently no casualties. Syrian security forces reportedly established “checkpoints” in the area after the attack, which I guess is supposed to create a sense of calm even though it’s entirely possible that the security forces were responsible for the attack. Thousands of Alawite civilians took shelter at Hmeimim back in March, when the security forces and their jihadist compatriots were in the process of massacring civilians in Latakia, and their refusal to leave the base has created a fair amount of tension.
Meanwhile, European Union foreign policy director Kaja Kallas announced on Tuesday that the bloc is lifting sanctions on the Syrian government, following Donald Trump’s similar announcement last week. Clarifying remarks from anonymous “EU diplomats” seem to indicate that this won’t be an across the board thing but will include major categories like banking sanctions.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The Israeli military (IDF) killed at least 85 people in Gaza on Tuesday amid a growing controversy about exactly how farcical its resumption of humanitarian aid shipments really is. After allowing just five aid trucks into Gaza on Monday, the IDF says it allowed 93 into the territory on Tuesday—still wildly insufficient. The United Nations confirmed that “a few dozen trucks” did enter Gaza on Tuesday, which sounds even less impressive but could in theory align with the figure offered by the Israelis. But regardless of how much aid is coming into Gaza none of it is actually getting to anyone, thanks largely to Israeli procedural requirements for distribution that UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric called “long, complex, complicated, and dangerous.”
Internationally, the Israeli government’s Western patrons are going to greater efforts to pantomime frustration with what’s happening in Gaza. The UK government on Tuesday announced that it is suspending negotiations on a new free trade deal with Israel and blacklisted several Israeli settlers and settler organizations. The EU is planning to “review” the bloc’s trade deal with Israel, but it’s unlikely all 27 member states would agree to suspend it—even after the IDF in all likelihood carried out a drone strike on an aid vessel near EU member Malta a few weeks ago.
As for Donald Trump, Barak Ravid at Axios is reporting that he’s “frustrated by the ongoing war in Gaza and upset by images of suffering of Palestinian children, and has told his aides to tell Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu he wants him to wrap it up.” Trump is of course not prepared to do anything to make Netanyahu “wrap it up,” and so we seem to have fully reverted to the Biden administration’s strategy of facilitating the genocide while complaining uselessly about it to the press. The Trump administration is even using Joe Biden’s preferred reporter to get its contrived message out.
IRAN
CNN is reporting that the Israeli government has advanced plans for a military strike on Iran, whether the Trump administration supports it or not:
The US has obtained new intelligence suggesting that Israel is making preparations to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, even as the Trump administration has been pursuing a diplomatic deal with Tehran, multiple US officials familiar with the latest intelligence told CNN.
Such a strike would be a brazen break with President Donald Trump, US officials said. It could also risk tipping off a broader regional conflict in the Middle East — something the US has sought to avoid since the war in Gaza inflamed tensions beginning in 2023.
Officials caution it’s not clear that Israeli leaders have made a final decision, and that in fact, there is deep disagreement within the US government about the likelihood that Israel will ultimately act. Whether and how Israel strikes will likely depend on what it thinks of the US negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear program.
But “the chance of an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility has gone up significantly in recent months,” said another person familiar with US intelligence on the issue. “And the prospect of a Trump-negotiated US-Iran deal that doesn’t remove all of Iran’s uranium makes the chance of a strike more likely.”
There are at least a couple of ways to interpret this. One is that these Israeli plans are so far along that they’ve freaked out the US intelligence community to the extent that people within it are leaking this stuff to the media. Another is that the Trump administration is leaking a possible Israeli military strike as an inducement to the Iranians to make additional concessions in their nuclear negotiations.
ASIA
PAKISTAN
An apparent drone strike in northern Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province killed at least four children and wounded five others on Monday. It also prompted a protest in the town of Mir Ali, where the incident took place, with residents demanding to know what happened and insisting that they will not bury the dead until authorities tell them who was responsible. The government’s reluctance to do that is presumably because it may have been responsible—this would not be the first errant drone strike by Pakistani and/or provincial security forces to kill civilians. Militants do use less sophisticated drones as well, and the Pakistani Taliban is active in Mir Ali.
AFP is reporting, based on statements from “a senior Pakistani security official,” that Indian and Pakistani officials “have agreed to withdraw troop reinforcements deployed during their recent conflict back to their peacetime positions by the end of May.” Most of those reinforcements were deployed around the Line of Control separating Pakistani and Indian Kashmir. The two sides had planned on a quicker withdrawal but apparently got hung up on details.
TAIWAN
At Foreign Affairs, Oriana Skylar Mastro and Brandon Yoder argue that the Trump administration may be undermining the US aim of deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan:
As tensions rise across the Taiwan Strait, the policy debate in Washington remains fractured. U.S. strategy broadly revolves around deterring China from attacking Taiwan, and for the past three presidential administrations, it has consisted of three central components: increasing the ability of the United States and Taiwan to defend the island militarily; using diplomacy to signal U.S. resolve to protect Taiwan while also reassuring China that Washington does not support Taiwanese independence; and using economic pressure to slow China’s military modernization efforts.
But there is little consensus on the right balance among these three components—and that balance determines to some degree how deterrence looks in practice. Some contend that diplomatic pressure—along with military restraint, to avoid antagonizing China—will keep Beijing at bay. Others warn that unless Washington significantly strengthens its military posture in Asia, deterrence will collapse. And a third approach, outlined recently in Foreign Affairs by Jennifer Kavanagh and Stephen Wertheim, emphasizes that bolstering Taiwan’s self-defense and enabling offshore U.S. support is the best route to sustaining deterrence while also mitigating the risk of escalation.
These prescriptions have merit but fall short of grappling with the paradox at the heart of U.S. strategy: deterrence can fail in two ways. Do too little, and Beijing may gamble it can seize Taiwan before Washington is able to respond. Do too much, and Chinese leaders may conclude that force is the only remaining path to unification. Navigating this dilemma requires more than a stronger military or bolder diplomacy. It requires a calibrated strategy of rearmament, reassurance, and restraint that threads the needle between weakness and recklessness. Combined properly, forward-deployed capabilities, diplomatic restraint, and selective economic interdependence can reinforce one another to maintain credible deterrence while avoiding provocation.
So far, however, the Trump administration’s approach to Taiwan has veered between harsh transactionalism, such as the imposition of a 32 percent tariff on most Taiwanese goods last month, and quiet reaffirmations of support for Taipei through bipartisan visits and a pause on the highest tariffs. The administration still has time to settle on a coherent strategy, but the window of opportunity is closing.
They recommend a quiet buildup of US forces in the Pacific (quiet to avoid antagonizing Beijing), greater levels of US-China diplomatic engagement, and a drastic rethinking of the Biden-Trump economic war on China. The last point is particularly relevant to Trump. The desirability of maintaining US-Chinese economic ties discourages a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, but if those ties are already severed or if their benefits are substantially diminished—for example, by high US tariffs—then the argument against an invasion would be correspondingly weakened.
It’s an interesting read that rests to some extent on an assumption that the Trump administration, or any other US administration, is really prepared to fight World War III over Taiwan. I’m not sure that’s the case, but if it is then effective deterrence is certainly preferable to that alternative. Even short of that possibility, if better deterrence can forestall a Chinese attempt to take Taiwan by force that sparks another Ukraine-esque conflict, that would also be a positive outcome—particularly for the Taiwanese people.
AFRICA
SUDAN
After another round of fighting between the Sudanese military and the remaining Rapid Support Forces militants in Sudan’s Khartoum state, the military declared on Tuesday that the entire state is now “completely free” from RSF presence. The military drove the RSF out of Khartoum city back in March but the militants had still held on to territory on the southern outskirts of the neighboring city of Omdurman. The military had apparently spent the past several days attacking the RSF’s position there before finally driving the militants out on Tuesday morning.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
The Wall Street Journal reports on the dismal living conditions for residents of the M23-controlled city of Goma:
It has become a Saturday morning ritual since rebels seized the Congolese city of Goma: Residents come out of their homes, report to militia authorities and, at gunpoint, scour the streets, unclog the sewers, scrub the food markets and disinfect the morgues.
Those who show up late or skip compulsory work gangs risk heavy fines, public whippings or arrest.
Such is life in occupied Goma, home to two million people in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, since M23 rebels, reinforced by thousands of troops from neighboring Rwanda, seized power in a lightning offensive in January, according to residents interviewed by The Wall Street Journal.
The traces of Congo’s central government—police, urban administrators, magistrates—have disappeared, replaced by the heavy-handed, sometimes violently enforced, rules of a rebel movement that after years in the bush suddenly finds itself in charge.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
The European Union instituted another round of sanctions against Russia on Tuesday, this time targeting the “shadow fleet” that allegedly transports Russian oil and gas products around the world. The bloc blacklisted 189 ships accused of involvement in that scheme along with several individuals and Russian entities. The UK also announced a host of new sanctions in conjunction with the EU.
UKRAINE
According to Barak Ravid, Donald Trump’s phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday left European leaders “stunned” when Trump spoke with them afterward. While Trump came out of that phone call publicly trumpeting new ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, he apparently made it clear to the Europeans that he is checking out or is about to check out of Russia-Ukraine matters altogether, suggesting that he wouldn’t really participate in the new talks and would not join any new European sanctions effort (see above). He also reportedly seemed “happy” with what he’d heard from Putin, even though there’s no indication that Putin said anything during their call that he hadn’t already said—he’s willing to negotiate, he won’t agree to a ceasefire, etc.
Trump has lurched back and forth between favoring the Russian and Ukrainian positions since resuming office, based mainly on who last spoke with him. For the past few weeks he’s leaned toward Ukraine because of his encounter with Volodymyr Zelensky at Pope Francis’s funeral late last month, but Monday’s phone call with Putin seems to have swung him back in the other direction. In addition to that he’s clearly grown bored trying to resolve a conflict that he doesn’t understand and that doesn’t have an easy resolution, so like a child who gets tired of playing with a toy he’s ready to move on to something else.
AMERICAS
BOLIVIA
Tuesday marked the registration deadline for candidates intending to run in August’s Bolivian presidential election and authorities excluded former President Evo Morales from the candidate list, seemingly putting the final legal nail in his electoral coffin. The Bolivian Constitutional Court last week upheld a previous ruling barring Morales from the ballot on term limit grounds.
The AP is reporting that the elections tribunal also excluded Senate President Andrónico Rodríguez, a Morales ally who had also filed to run. That decision appears to be provisional, pending an investigation into Rodríguez’s party support, but it also significantly improves the chances of President Luis Arce’s preferred candidate, former Minister of Government Eduardo del Castillo. Arce himself has withdrawn from the race and endorsed del Castillo, which given Arce’s current level of unpopularity may not be of much help. Nevertheless, if del Castillo is the unquestioned nominee of Arce’s Movement for Socialism party with other leftist candidates kicked off the ballot, that does give him something of a leg up.
VENEZUELA
The Venezuelan government released US national and Air Force veteran Joseph St. Clair on Tuesday, after a meeting between Trump administration envoy Richard Grenell and Venezuelan National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez in Antigua. St. Clair had been in Venezuelan custody since November. His family says he was in South America seeking treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder but it’s unclear how he wound up in Venezuela.
COLOMBIA
The UN is warning that several Colombian Indigenous groups are facing an existential threat:
The United Nations human rights office in Colombia warned Tuesday that five Indigenous groups in a storied mountain range face “physical and cultural” extinction, a critical threat that stems from armed groups fighting over their territory and insufficient state protection.
Scott Campbell, Colombia’s representative for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, said in a statement that the risk of physical and cultural extinction of Indigenous People of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta is “an ongoing tragedy that we can and must prevent.”
Campbell urged the Colombian government to protect the Kogui, Wiwa, Kankuamo, Arhuaco, and Ette Naka Indigenous groups, whose combined population is approximately 54,700 people.
Campbell’s statement followed a visit to the Sierra Nevada region, where U.N. officials spoke with representatives of these Indigenous tribes.
UNITED STATES
Donald Trump on Tuesday rolled out what may be the great boondoggle of his second term, the $175 billion (it will cost much more than that, but this is apparently the figure that the Trump administration is using for now) “Golden Dome” missile defense system. Reviving all the hare-brained fantasies of Ronald Reagan’s “Star Wars” system, “Golden Dome” postulates that a network of satellites and space-based interceptor devices can detect and then stop any missile launch on the United States. The only thing we can really say for sure is that it’s going to make some defense contractors even richer than they already are.
Finally, speaking of wastes of government resources, I’m sad to say that it looks like Elon Musk’s co-presidency may be at an end:
On Truth Social, where Trump is known for sharing his unfiltered thoughts, the president used to mention Musk every few days but now has not posted about him in more than a month. Trump’s fundraising operation has largely ceased sending emails that name-check the Tesla CEO. The billionaire’s name, once a staple of White House briefings, now hardly gets mentioned at all. Even members of Congress have essentially dropped him from their newsletters.
It’s a remarkable change for the man who was seemingly everywhere in the early days of the second Trump administration. Musk was in the Oval Office, in Cabinet meetings and on Air Force One. He was at inauguration, then in the House gallery for Trump’s first address to Congress, where Trump praised his hard work. He posed with the president and a row of Teslas on the White House lawn.
But Musk’s highly visible presence in Washington has ended, a POLITICO analysis found. In Trump’s rapidly evolving second presidency, Musk’s monopoly on political discourse, news coverage and social media seems to have broken — driven in part by how Trump and Republicans have all but stopped talking about him.
For his part, Musk told the audience at the Qatar Economic Forum on Tuesday that he’s planning to drastically reduce the amount of money he spends on politics moving forward. Perhaps this is because he threw $25 million at a Wisconsin Supreme Court race last month that his preferred candidate lost, badly. Or maybe it’s because sales at Tesla have declined as his political profile has risen. Or maybe his opposition to Donald Trump’s tariff project has caused him to rethink some things. Whatever the reason, I’m sure he’ll be…missed? No, that’s not the right word. He’ll definitely be something though.