World roundup: May 18-19 2024
Stories from Israel-Palestine, Myanmar, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and elsewhere
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THIS WEEKEND IN HISTORY
May 18, 1291: Among several other notorious Crusades anniversaries, May 18 was the date on which the city of Acre, the last Crusader state in the Levant, fell to the besieging Mamluks. It would take several more days to clear out the city, whose fall marked the end of the main Crusading movement.
May 18, 1974: The Indian military successfully detonates the country’s first nuclear weapon in a test ironically (I assume) code named “Smiling Buddha.” The test made India the world’s sixth acknowledged nuclear weapons state after the US, USSR, UK, France, and China. In reality it’s widely believed that Israel already had nuclear weapons by this point as well, but since the Israelis refuse to acknowledge their nuclear weapons program its origins remain murky.
May 18, 2009: The nearly 26 year long Sri Lankan Civil War ends with the government’s defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (AKA Tamil Tigers) rebel group. Sri Lankan authorities had declared victory on May 16 and the LTTE had acknowledged its defeat on May 17, but it was on the morning of May 18 when LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran was caught and killed by government forces while attempting to flee the final LTTE-controlled enclave. The war is estimated to have killed upwards of 100,000 people in total and displaced hundreds of thousands more.
May 19, 1919: The Turkish War of Independence begins.
May 19, 1961: The Soviet Union’s Venera 1 probe, also sometimes called “Sputnik 8” in the West, becomes the first man-made object to complete an interplanetary voyage when it passes by Venus. Unfortunately from a scientific perspective, the probe lost contact with Earth about a week after its February 19 launch so it was unable to transmit any data it might have gathered during the flyby.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
Israeli “war cabinet” member Benny Gantz told reporters on Saturday that he will quit that ad hoc body unless Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu adopts some sort of “postwar” plan for Gaza by June 8. Gantz laid out his own six point plan, which as I mentioned on Friday involves corralling some combination of the US, European Union, Arab states, and willing Palestinians to manage Gaza once the Israeli military (IDF) is finished destroying it. It’s not clear whether Gantz is insisting that Netanyahu adopt his plan specifically or if he’s just offering it as a point of reference. Gantz’s ultimatum follows on the heels of criticism leveled at Netanyahu by his own defense minister, Yoav Gallant, over the same issue of Gaza’s longer term status.
While both Gantz and Gallant are less enamored of the idea of annexing Gaza than Netanyahu’s far right allies (or at least they’re less enamored of talking about it openly), neither is offering a substantially better outcome for Palestinians. More to the point, their criticism doesn’t matter all that much. As long as Netanyahu maintains control of his Likud party and maintains his alliance with the far right he’s in no danger of losing power. Having Gantz around in the war cabinet offers him some political cover but it’s not essential. And at any rate there’s a decent chance that Gantz, who is not exactly a daring politician, will decide on June 8 to stick around even if Netanyahu hasn’t satisfied his demand.
Elsewhere:
The IDF continued to pound Gaza throughout the weekend. One Israeli airstrike killed at least 27 people in the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, while IDF strikes killed dozens more in northern Gaza’s Jabalia refugee camp. The IDF continues to insist that militant groups have reentered these places, which the Israelis claimed to have cleared weeks or months ago, highlighting how little attention the Israeli government has given to any sort of longer term planning.
The IDF says its forces killed a senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad commander in the West Bank city of Jenin late Friday, a claim that was later confirmed by PIJ. Several people were reportedly wounded in the same operation.
Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis has reportedly reopened, at least partially, with the support of the Doctors Without Borders NGO. The IDF shut the facility down in a days-long raid back in February and it, like the other few remaining medical facilities in Gaza, is hampered by a sustained lack of supplies. Now that it’s open again one assumes that the chances of another IDF attack are significant.
SAUDI ARABIA
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan visited Saudi Arabia over the weekend for a chat with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The two discussed that Saudi-Israeli normalization deal that the Biden administration remains so keen to secure. The US and Saudi portions of that deal—a binding security commitment and US assistance for the Saudi nuclear program—seem nearly completed, but the Israeli government’s refusal to cede anything on the subject of Palestinian statehood has made it impossible for the Saudis to commit to normalization. They’re anxious to proceed with the US-Saudi deal separately, but the Biden administration is still clinging to the idea that it can use the Israeli hope of normalization to leverage a resolution in Gaza.
IRAN
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is missing and most likely dead after what appears to have been a helicopter crash in Iran’s East Azerbaijan province on Sunday. Rescuers are still searching for the crash site—at time of writing there were breaking reports that a Turkish drone may have located it—so there’s no specific information as to the condition of its passengers, which in addition to Raisi also included Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. Some accounts coming out of Iran have said euphemistically that the aircraft made a “hard landing” but I think it’s reasonable to assume that’s being generous.
Raisi won one of the lowest turnout elections in Iranian history in 2021, defeating a field that had, according to Iranian practice, been largely winnowed of anyone who might pass as an “opposition” candidate. He’s been one of a handful of figures generally touted as a potential successor to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, about which I’ll say a bit more in a moment. Assuming he is dead he will be succeeded in the immediate term by Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber. By law, Iranian authorities will need to hold an election within 50 days to choose a permanent replacement.
Speculation is already, unsurprisingly, running rampant as to what might have happened. To be clear, the simplest explanation—a crash caused by mechanical failure—is entirely plausible. Iranian aircraft are old (an intentional result of US and other Western sanctions) and often in some state of disrepair, though I assume the Iranian presidential helicopter was better maintained than most Iranian helicopters. If you’ve followed this story online you’ve probably seen images or footage of the rescue operation, which is taking place in what appears to be an extremely thick fog. Flying conditions, then, appear to have been sub-optimal to say the least. Neither of these considerations are likely to quell theories of Israeli and/or US involvement—particularly given that Raisi was returning home from Azerbaijan, a country that has a close security relationship with Israel and a frosty overall relationship with Iran. Whether this was purely an accident or not, the suspicion of outside involvement may be enough to elevate this incident to the level of international crisis.
There’s another set of conspiracies that could emerge in terms of the struggle over who will succeed the elderly Khamenei. As I said above, Raisi was on a very short (and largely unknown) list of plausible candidates, one that also includes Khamenei’s son Mojtaba—who, as it happens, has ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Let’s not go too far down that road, but here too even the suspicion of foul play could be significant with respect to Iranian politics. Iran held an election for the Assembly of Experts—the body that at least on paper is supposed to choose the supreme leader—on March 1, but the new body hasn’t had time to do very much so it’s hard to know how it leans. Its choice of chairman could be illuminating—I assume that the current assembly chair, Ahmad Jannati, is not a succession candidate given that he’s 97. If Raisi’s death clears the field for Mojtaba Khamenei, with all the monarchical trappings that implies, that too could become an issue for Iran’s political establishment.
The succession already threatened to be chaotic because, while there are constitutional provisions in place for managing this sort of thing, Iran has only experienced one transfer of power since its revolution so this is not a well-established process. I guess we’ll never know now whether Raisi was in line to become supreme leader. There are indications that he was being groomed for the job at one time, but his unpopularity and his record as president (economic failure and violent repression of the Mahsa Amini protests) may have wrecked his chances. Nevertheless his presumed death adds more uncertainty to the situation, because even if he wasn’t the preferred candidate for the job he would have had substantial influence on the process as president or as an elder statesman. Those who welcome the chaos because they see it as a path toward excising the Islamic Republic might want to consider whether a collapse of Iran’s current system would more likely lead to a benevolent monarchy or democracy, or to a military-backed authoritarian regime. I suspect the latter is more likely but what do I know?
ASIA
GEORGIA
As expected, on Saturday Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili vetoed the controversial foreign agents bill that the Georgian parliament passed on Tuesday. This is more a nuisance than a genuine obstacle to the bill becoming law. The Georgian president’s veto power is limited and parliament should easily override it in the coming days.
AFGHANISTAN
To I expect no great surprise, Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the shooting that took place in Afghanistan’s Bamyan province on Friday. In addition to three Spanish tourists, three Afghan nationals were also killed in that incident while eight people were reportedly wounded.
INDIA
Indian authorities believe separatist militants were responsible for killing a local Bharatiya Janata Party leader in Kashmir’s Shopian district on Saturday evening. BJP says it intends to organize a protest over the killing. A pair of Indian tourists were wounded in a separate incident on Saturday that authorities are also blaming on separatists. Tensions in Kashmir are elevated amid India’s ongoing general election, the first since the BJP-led government stripped Kashmir of its regional autonomy back in 2019.
MYANMAR
The rebel Arakan Army is claiming that its fighters have taken the town of Buthidaung, which is located near the Bangladeshi border in Myanmar’s Rakhine state. There are reports, which the rebel group is denying, that AA fighters burned the town and killed or chased off many of its largely Rohingya residents. Myanmar’s military has a habit of burning towns that it’s about to lose, so the AA’s protestations may have some validity.
OCEANIA
NEW CALEDONIA
Though there had been indications that the situation in New Caledonia was calming down on Friday, that appears not to have held through the weekend. After additional rioting left a sixth person dead in New Caledonia on Saturday, French police reportedly began a “major operation” on Sunday to clear roadblocks from the main highway connecting regional capital Noumea to Tontouta International Airport. I haven’t seen any indication as to the success of that effort, but the French government has already canceled its plans to bring the Olympic torch through New Caledonia on its way to Paris.
AFRICA
SUDAN
The Rapid Support Forces group announced via social media late Friday that it is prepared to open evacuation routes out of El-Fasher. RSF fighters are surrounding that city, the capital of Sudan’s North Darfur state, trapping hundreds of thousands of people in an effective siege. Eventually the group aims to take the city, which could trigger a massacre if the RSF’s Arab tribal fighters keep up their pattern of killing non-Arab civilians. It’s unclear where evacuees would go.
LIBYA
Fighting between pro-government militias left at least one person dead and 22 others wounded in the northwestern Libyan city of Zawiya on Saturday. I’m not entirely clear who was fighting or why, but the AP suggested that the clashes began when local security forces attempted to arrest a man who is wanted for murder. Local “elders” were apparently able to negotiate a cessation of hostilities later in the day.
NIGER
The US military will complete its withdrawal from Niger by September 15, according to a joint statement issued by the two governments on Sunday. The Biden administration sent a delegation to Niamey in recent days to discuss the withdrawal plan, which became necessary when Niger’s ruling junta ordered the US departure back in March. The two sides have agreed on a plan that provides for the protection of US forces while they evacuate and apparently streamlines the process of entry for US personnel for the purposes of implementing the withdrawal.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
The Congolese army is claiming that its forces thwarted an attempted coup in Kinshasa on Sunday in an incident that left at least two police officers and two other individuals dead. In one incident, a group of unspecified armed men apparently attacked the home of cabinet minister Vital Kamerhe. One of those alleged attackers was among the dead. Meanwhile, a previously exiled Congolese opposition leader named Christian Malanga led another group to the presidential palace, where he live-streamed the event while threatening President Félix Tshisekedi. Malanga was apparently also killed when, according to Congolese officials, he resisted arrest. It’s being reported that at least four US nationals participated in this operation, including Malanga’s son (Malanga had been resident in the US off and on since 1998). They’ve all been taken into custody. There’s a lot about this story that seems sketchy so more details may be forthcoming down the road.
EUROPE
POLAND
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced on Saturday that his government will earmark some $2.5 billion for beefing up security along the Polish-Russian and Polish-Belarussian borders. This will include the construction of new military fortifications on both borders and will expand on the $400 million wall the previous Polish government built along the Belarussian border.
SLOVAKIA
Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico’s condition has apparently been upgraded following Wednesday’s assassination attempt, and while it is still serious it is no longer believed to be life-threatening. Authorities, who initially described his alleged attacker as a “lone wolf,” now say they’re investigating the possibility that he was not quite as “lone” as initially thought. Deputy Prime Minister Robert Kaliňák is managing things in Fico’s stead.
SPAIN
The Spanish government recalled its ambassador from Argentina late Sunday, after Argentine President Javier Millei referred to the wife of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez as “corrupt.” Millei made that comment at a far-right rally held in Madrid by the Vox party ahead of European elections next month. Sánchez’s wife, Begoña Gómez, was implicated in a corruption scandal that caused Sánchez to threaten to resign last month. He wound up sticking around but clearly this is still something of a sore spot.
AMERICAS
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
Dominican voters headed to the polls on Sunday for their country’s general election. Polling has pretty consistently made incumbent Luis Abinader a prohibitive favorite to win reelection in Sunday’s first round, though I haven’t seen any polling with respect to the legislative portion of the contest. Voters seem particularly concerned about the possibility that political turmoil in Haiti might spill across the border, and Abinader’s tightening of border controls has apparently convinced a large number of them that he’ll be able to prevent that.
UNITED STATES
Finally, TomDispatch’s William Hartung offers a hopeful takeaway from college protests over Gaza:
One thing is guaranteed: the commitment of this generation of student activists will reverberate through the progressive movement for years to come, setting high standards for steadfast activism in the face of the power of repression. Many of the activists from my own years on campus have remained in progressive politics as union organizers, immigration reform advocates, peace and racial justice activists, or even, like me, think-tank researchers. And don’t be surprised if the ceasefire movement has a similar impact on our future, possibly on an even larger scale.
Face it, we’re living through difficult times when fundamental tenets of our admittedly flawed democracy are under attack, and openly racist, misogynist, anti-gay, and anti-trans rhetoric and actions are regarded as acceptable conduct by all too many in our country. But the surge of student activism over Gaza is just one of many signs that a different, better world is still possible.
To get there, however, it’s important to understand that, even as we rally against the crises of the moment, suffering both victories and setbacks along the way, we need to prepare ourselves to stay in the struggle for the long haul. Hopefully, the current wave of student activism over the nightmare in Gaza will prove to be a catalyst in creating a larger, stronger movement that can overcome the most daunting challenges we face both as a country and a world.
Not to be glib, but I think this Raisi crash shows that random contingencies do happen especially given old *helicopters*.
To be glib, this does support the theory that Poles and Iranians share an ancestral link, having both lost presidents in foggy air incidents shrouded in talk of foul play.