World update: December 12 2019

Stories from Iran, Armenia, Libya, and more

THESE DAYS IN HISTORY

December 11, 861: The Abbasid caliph al-Mutawakkil is assassinated by his Turkish royal guard in his palace in Samarra. Al-Mutawakkil’s murder was the final straw in the capture of the caliphate by its Turkish slave soldiery and kicked off a 10 year period known as the “Anarchy at Samarra” in which four caliphs were enthroned and deposed in rapid succession, each backed by some faction of the military. The period ended with the accession of the caliph al-Muʿtamid, who ruled from 870-892 mostly due to the efforts of his brother, al-Muwaffaq, who pacified the Turks and essentially ruled the caliphate from behind the throne.

December 11, 1917: British General Edmund Allenby enters the newly captured city of Jerusalem.

December 11, 1972: Apollo 17 lands on the moon. This would be the final Apollo mission and the last manned mission to the moon. Three additional planned Apollo missions were scrapped due to budget cuts or other NASA priorities.

December 12, 627: A Byzantine army under Emperor Heraclius defeats a Sasanian Persian army at the Battle of Nineveh. The Byzantine victory broke the Persian resistance and allowed his forces to raid deeper into the heart of the empire. Two months later what was left of the Persian army and the Persian nobility overthrew Emperor Khosrow II, who was already on shaky ground due to the failure of his big idea to besiege Constantinople in 626, and so brought to an end the Byzantine-Sasanian War of 602-628. It was the last war the Romans and Persians ever fought against one another, as both empires would soon be confronted by the Islamic caliphate emerging from Arabia.

December 12, 1098: The Crusaders capture Maʿarrat al-Nuʿman

December 12, 1925: As a consequence of a British-organized coup in 1921, the final Qajar shah of Iran, Ahmad Shah Qajar, is formally deposed by the Iranian Majles. He was succeeded by Reza Shah Pahlavi three days later, something we’ll discuss in more detail in, well, three days.

MIDDLE EAST

TURKEY

Former Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu will publicly unveil his brand new political party on Friday. Davutoğlu, one of the founders of Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party, was purged along with most of AKP’s other founding figures by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. He resigned from the party earlier this year. The goal of his new Future Party will be to target center-right and religiously minded Erdoğan voters—as opposed to the far right nationalists upon whom he increasingly relies—who are uncomfortable with just how authoritarian Erdoğan has become. It doesn’t figure to have much broader appeal so its only real potential is as a spoiler. If that’s where Davutoğlu sets his sights and he’s successful, the party could be a genuine threat to AKP’s political dominance, assuming that Erdoğan doesn’t entirely shut down Turkish democracy at some point.

IRAQ

A suicide bomber attacked an Iraqi militia position near Samarra on Thursday, killing seven of the group’s fighters and wounding several others. There’s no word on responsibility but the Islamic State was almost certainly behind it.

In Baghdad, meanwhile, a young man who was apparently wanted on drug charges and fleeing from police shot and killed six people in the city’s Wathba Square. A mob, no doubt incited by the multiple acts of violence committed against protesters in Baghdad over the past several weeks, apparently stabbed and/or beat the shooter to death and then hung his body from a pole. Protest organizers have condemned the violent. Populist political leader Muqtada al-Sadr, whose militia has been protecting protesters for the past few days, has threatened to order them off the streets unless the protesters hand those responsible for the mob violence (assuming that really is how it went down) over to police.

LEBANON

Lebanon’s largest Christian party, the Free Patriotic Movement, says it will not participate in a Lebanese government headed by Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri. Ironically, this may actually make it easier for Hariri to form a government, because FPM leader (and current foreign minister) Gebran Bassil also says the party won’t try to block a new Hariri-led cabinet. Hariri has called for the creation of a “technocratic” (i.e., non-political) cabinet but wants to run it himself even though he’s extremely political. He’s managed to undermine two attempts to replace him as PM with less political figures and, as the preeminent Sunni politician in Lebanon, wields an effective veto over any PM candidate. Bassil said that FPM would be willing to support a wholly technocratic government, including a non-political PM, but given that Hariri won’t allow himself to be replaced that doesn’t seem to be achievable. With FPM no longer demanding cabinet posts for its leaders Hariri should have an easier time picking non-political figures for those jobs.

ISRAEL-PALESTINE

In a break with past policy, the Israeli government will not permit the small number of Christians in Gaza to travel to Bethlehem or Jerusalem for Christmas. In previous years Gazan Christians have been able to apply for permits to visit those places during the holiday season. This is presumably related to the Israeli government’s longstanding project to divide Gaza and the West Bank, but mostly it’s just petty. It’s also something to keep in mind for the next time somebody tries to tell you that Gaza isn’t under occupation or the Israel doesn’t routinely mistreat the Palestinian people.

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

According to Reuters, Emirati officials have been engaged in a months-long lobbying effort across Europe to bring an end to European arms embargoes. That effort has centered around the UAE’s military draw down in Yemen, since the embargoes have been put in place in order to prevent European weapons from being used to kill Yemeni civilians. The Emiratis have also cited instability in the Persian Gulf as justification for their arms purchases. The effort seems to have succeeded, at least in Germany and Sweden, whose governments have recently approved some limited arms sales to the UAE.

SAUDI ARABIA

Aramco stock climbed for the second straight day on Thursday, to somewhere in the neighborhood of $9.81 per share. That puts the company’s overall valuation at $1.96 trillion, just shy of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s beloved $2 trillion figure. I don’t intend this newsletter to become the Aramco Stock Ticker and this may be the last time we mention it, but I do think the early trading and the chase of that $2 trillion valuation has been interesting.

IRAN

Al-Monitor’s Rohollah Faghihi is reporting that Donald Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani came closer to an agreement in September than most outside observers thought:

In September, Rouhani and Donald Trump were extremely close to a deal that, according to a source speaking to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, would allow Europe to purchase one year of Iranian oil to a great extent on behalf of China and India. However, Tehran and Washington had a disagreement over the period of the waivers, as Rouhani had called for a one-year oil waiver and the purchase of 1.5 million barrels of oil per day; Trump had insisted on a six-month oil waiver and 1 million barrels per day.

According to the source, in the end, while the two sides were getting close to the deal, they hit another hurdle: the bilateral meeting. Rouhani asked for a declaration of lifting the sanctions and the oil waiver before the photo-op with Trump, while the US president had stated he would announce it in the middle of the meeting. Finally, Rouhani stated this wouldn’t work, as they may not reach an agreement with each other in the meeting — and in such case, this could turn out to be costly for him and Iran.

Meanwhile, a diplomatic source playing a significant role in the initiative by French President Emmanuel Macron to appeal to both sides told Al-Monitor there is currently no chance for a Rouhani-Trump deal, as Trump is busy with the impeachment process in the US House of Representatives and his 2020 re-election campaign. Also, Iran is nearing its parliamentary elections, which would put Rouhani in hot water.

ASIA

ARMENIA

In a bit of a surprise, given that the White House was reportedly lobbying Republicans against it, the US Senate on Thursday unanimously voted to recognize the Armenian Genocide by the Ottoman Empire. Republicans had been blocking the measure at Donald Trump’s behest, in order to preserve his friendship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, but it’s clear there was no appetite to keep doing that forever and definitely no appetite to actually vote against the resolution. The Turkish government naturally condemned the vote but it seems unlikely that it will have any serious repercussions. The challenges in the US-Turkey relationship are all related to present day issues and that will continue to be the case.

INDIA

Protests against India’s new Citizenship Amendment law, which passed on Wednesday and will grant citizenship to non-Muslim undocumented migrants from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, turned violent in Assam state on Thursday. Mobs of demonstrators clashed with police in the state capital of Guwahati, with some police responding with live ammunition. At least two people were killed and 11 more injured. The protesters object to the law for two reasons—one, because they argue it will cause a flood of new migrants, and two, because it looks very much like a backdoor way to institute a religious test for citizenship into India’s heretofore secular state.

CHINA

According to Bloomberg, the US and China have agreed on a “phase one” trade deal. Basically it looks like China will agree to buy more US agricultural products and in return the US will not impose new tariffs on Chinese imports and will substantially cut tariffs that have already been imposed. Further details aren’t clear and indeed may not have been finalized yet. The deal only scratches the surface of the US-China trade dispute but it gives Donald Trump something to brag about and in theory creates some mutual goodwill heading into tougher discussions.

Thousands of protesters marched in downtown Hong Kong on Thursday to commemorate six months since the first really violent confrontation between demonstrators and police. The march and related events seem to have proceeded peacefully.

SOUTH KOREA

Sometimes we get so caught up in the dumb things that Donald Trump does that we may lose sight of all the dumb things he almost does:

Donald Trump called for the population of Seoul to be moved during an Oval Office meeting when tensions between the US and North Korea were at their height, according to a new book about the president’s relations with the US military.

In Trump and his Generals: The Cost of Chaos, the national security and counter-terrorism expert Peter Bergen also gives new details of Trump’s demands that the families of US service members in South Korea be evacuated, which the North Korean regime would have interpreted as a clear move towards war. In both cases, Trump’s impetuous diktats were ignored by his top officials.

Relocating the city of Seoul is an idea so batshit it could only have come from the pristine mind palace of Donald J. Trump. It’s the latter move that’s really troubling because on the surface it seems like a not unreasonable response to escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula. But any sudden US evacuation of South Korea would be seen in Pyongyang as a sign that an attack was imminent, and would likely trigger a preemptive strike that could level Seoul in a matter of minutes. Anyway I think we can all agree that it’s exciting to be reminded of these things at a time when US-North Korean tensions are rising again.

AFRICA

LIBYA

The good news is that Tripoli’s Mitiga Airport resumed operations on Thursday for the first time since it closed up shop on September 1 due to nearby fighting. The bad news is that it may not be open for very long. “Libyan National Army” leader Khalifa Haftar has ordered his forces to undertake what he called the “decisive battle” for control of the Libyan capital. Now, the LNA has a tendency to make big declarations about its plans that don’t necessarily come to pass. But an influx of Russian mercenaries fighting on Haftar’s side has bolstered the LNA, and if there were a time for it to make a full-scale push toward Tripoli this might be it.

ALGERIA

Algeria held its controversial presidential election on Thursday amid daylong protests against the vote and against the country’s ruling elite. The official figure is that turnout was around 33 percent, and that’s the government trying to paint the rosiest possible picture about the election. Actual turnout was probably lower and possibly much lower. Results won’t be known for some time but the outcome seems almost like an afterthought at this point. Whoever wins, whether they win outright or have to go to a runoff, won’t have any claim on popular legitimacy after everything that’s happened and given the low turnout.

NIGER

The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for Tuesday’s attack in western Niger that killed more than 70 Nigerien soldiers. The group’s “Greater Sahara” affiliate carried out the attack, though it’s attributed to its “West Africa Province” because ISGS and the old ISWAP (the Boko Haram splinter group that is active in the Lake Chad region) underwent a sort of paper merger earlier this year.

EUROPE

RUSSIA

The European Union on Thursday extended its sanctions against Russia over the annexation of Crimea for another six months. Those measures will now remain in place through next July and, presumably, will be extended beyond that unless Moscow is planning on giving Crimea back at some point.

UKRAINE

The Ukrainian parliament, meanwhile, voted to extend limited self-rule in eastern Ukraine for another year. Kyiv granted eastern Ukraine special autonomous status in 2014 in an effort to avoid a civil war, and while that didn’t exactly work out maintaining (and even building upon) that status will be one of the keys to negotiating an end to that conflict.

POLAND

The governments of the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland spent the day holding up the adoption of an EU climate plan that would commit the bloc to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, until the bloc decided to go ahead with a plan that simply excluded Poland. Leaders in all three countries wanted firm commitments for substantial aid from wealthier EU members to help them transition away from fossil fuels and Prague especially wanted the right to invest EU money in building nuclear power plants as part of that transition. The Czechs got their wish, but Poland continued to hold out over concerns about its ability to meet a 2050 target. Warsaw proposed a 2070 target instead, but ultimately the rest of the EU decided to move on without it. They’ll apparently revisit the idea of Poland’s involvement next year.

ITALY

Three senators from Italy’s Five Star Movement defected on Thursday to the far right League party, leaving the governing Five Star-Democratic coalition with only a five seat majority in that chamber (though they do have ad hoc support from some smaller parties and independents). League party boss Matteo Salvini has been trying to poach Five Star legislators in an effort to bring down the coalition and force a new election.

UNITED KINGDOM

The results still aren’t officially in but the (usually pretty reliable) exit poll is, and it would appear that at least some of the recent polls showing a narrow Tory victory with the possibility of a hung parliament were off the mark. Exit polling shows the Conservative Party of Prime Minister Boris Johnson winning a comfortable victory with 368 seats, 42 seats more than the 326 needed for a sole majority. There will be a lot of analysis of this race and lots of people will use the result as proof that we have to restrict our politics to the mainstream center-right to far right range, but there’s a fair amount of evidence already to show that this race turned on Brexit and the Labour Party’s inability to find a solid position on it.

At least these guys are happy (White House via Wikimedia Commons)

Labour’s base was largely pro-remain but with a very substantial pro-leave minority. The party wound up hemming and hawing long enough to lose some of the remain vote to the Liberal Democrats, then landed on holding a second referendum in time to lose what looks like a large number of the leave vote to the Tories and the Brexit Party. The impression Labour created in this election was that it would be very happy to just rocket Brexit into the sun and move on to talking about healthcare, inequality, and so on. But given the circumstances, this race was always going to be about Brexit first and Labour just didn’t have a simple, snappy answer.

They were running against a Conservative Party whose message was, by contrast, extremely snappy: vote for us and you won’t have to hear about Brexit anymore. That’s a powerful message even for some on the remain side who are just tired of what has become a nearly four year saga (the Brexit referendum was held in June 2016 and the campaign began prior to that). It’s a lie, because Brexit is going to redefine almost everything about how the UK interacts with the world, but then that brings us to what I think is the second takeaway from this election.

In some ways this UK election was the first real post-Trump election in that its main figure, Boris Johnson, honed and built upon the main lesson of Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. What is that lesson? Lie. Lie a lot. Lie repeatedly and repetitiously. Lie about your opponents and lie about yourselves. Lie about the little things and especially lie about the big things. Lie even when those exact lies have already been “debunked.” Once you’ve told all the lies you can, rely on the right-wing media to amplify them, Facebook to spread them, and the “mainstream” media to legitimize them, whether willfully or because it’s just not equipped to do anything else. This is the most disheartening takeaway because it’s not clear what can be done to stop it. Clearly the truth is no defense, and neither can the left simply get down in the sandbox and play the same game, because thanks to consolidation and the desire to appear “unbiased” the media simply isn’t set up to treat left-wing lies with the same deference it treats right-wing lies.

A third factor here is Jeremy Corbyn, who is at this point a singularly unpopular figure—in contrast, if polling is to be believed, with the elements of his manifesto, which generally poll very well. Unsurprisingly, he’s resigning as Labour Party leader. Corbyn has been the target of an astonishing campaign involving everybody from the Tory far right to the Blairite center-right, including practically every branch of UK media, to morph him into History’s Greatest Monster, so it’s not surprising that he became a drag on the party. But on top of the personal attacks, Corbyn suffered from the same problem that plagues any left-ish candidate for office—a media that reflexively screams “HOW ARE YOU GOING TO PAY FOR THAT” about any proposal that risks improving the lives of lower class people, in a way that of course it never does about massive tax breaks for the wealthy or gigantic military budgets.

Regardless of the reasons, Johnson is in control now, really for the first time since he became prime minister. He’ll have the votes for his Brexit plan and he may even, given the expected size of his majority, have the latitude to negotiate a free trade deal with the European Union without having to worry about offending the really hardline Brexiteers in his party. This outcome may even be welcomed by some in the EU who, like many people in the UK, are probably just tired of hearing about Brexit so much. He’ll then get to negotiate a free trade deal with his pal Donald Trump, at which point we’ll see how much of the UK’s National Health Service he’s prepared to sell off to US insurance companies. That should be fun.

AMERICAS

CHILE

The Chilean Congress on Thursday considered and then rejected a call to impeach president Sebastián Piñera over allegations of human rights abuses committed by his security forces against protesters. The vote was close, 79-73, reflecting the divisions in Chilean politics amid public outrage that has driven Piñera’s approval rating toward the single digits.

BOLIVIA

Former Bolivian President Evo Morales has already transitioned his exile from Mexico to Cuba and now Argentina, where he’s been granted asylum. Politically this is an interesting move by new Argentine President Alberto Fernández, who certainly aligns with the left of center elements of the very broad Justicialist Party/Peronist bloc in Argentine politics but has never presented as anything beyond center-left. However, he’s apparently personal friends with Morales, so in that light granting him asylum—and potentially getting on the Trump administration’s bad side for it—makes more sense. It remains to be seen whether Morales will continue to comment on developments in Bolivia as he was doing in Mexico.

NICARAGUA

The Trump administration on Thursday sanctioned Rafael Antonio Ortega Murillo, the son of Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega, and “two companies he owns or controls” over allegations of money laundering.

UNITED STATES

The Pentagon tested a new ground-launched ballistic missile on Thursday in violation of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. Luckily, the Trump administration withdrew from the INF treaty in August, so it’s all good. I’m sure nothing bad could come from a new missile arms race with Russia.

Finally, the Ploughshares Fund’s Tom Collina looks at the abject surrender of House Democrats in negotiating the 2020 National Defense Authorization Act:

The outcome was a disaster. The topline budget rose to $738 billion and the major constraints on Trump were ripped out. Others were watered down. The most we can say about the final NDAA is that it includes some useful language on arms control and missile defense, but nothing major. Such weak tea certainly does not justify supporting a bill that funds Trump’s excessive $2 trillion program to rebuild the nuclear arsenal, among other things. Rep. Ro Khanna, D-California, a member of the House Armed Services Committee and a vice-chair of the progressive caucus issued a joint statement with Sen. Bernie Sanders, D-Vermont, a presidential candidate, calling the final agreement “a bill of astonishing moral cowardice.” Over 30 progressive national security organizations (including Ploughshares Fund) sent a letter to Congress opposing the final bill as doing “almost nothing to constrain the Trump administration’s erratic and reckless foreign policy.” Senator and presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren said she would oppose the bill, calling it a “$738 billion Christmas present to giant defense contractors.”