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TODAY IN HISTORY

May 5, 1260: Kublai Khan, grandson of Genghis Khan, is crowned as the fifth Great Khan (khagan) of the Mongol Empire, a position he held until his death in 1294. Perhaps best known in the West as the Khan who received the Polo family at his court in the 1270s, Kublai is one of the most consequential figures in Mongolian and Eurasian history. On the one hand his accession sparked a civil war that contributed significantly to the ongoing disintegration of the Mongolian empire. On the other, Kublai conquered the Southern Song Dynasty, reunifying China for the first time since at least the Jin conquest of northern China in 1115 and arguably for the first time since the fall of the Tang Dynasty in 907. In doing so, Kublai reconfigured the Mongolian army on the fly to overcome massive logistical challenges inherent to operating in southern China. He then shifted the imperial court from the Mongolian heartland to the Chinese city of Khanbaliq (modern Beijing) and is therefore considered the founder of China’s Yuan Dynasty.

May 5, 1862: A Mexican republican army commanded by Ignacio Zaragoza defeats a larger French force under Charles de Lorencez at the Battle of Puebla. The unexpected Mexican victory delayed a French march on Mexico City, though with reinforcements the French army eventually did take the capital and installed a Habsburg noble as the short-lived Emperor Maximilian I of Mexico. The republican side ultimately defeated the French and overthrew Maximilian in 1867, and this early, morale-boosting victory was made a Mexican national holiday: Cinco de Mayo.

MIDDLE EAST

TURKEY

The Turkish and Armenian governments have reportedly agreed to rebuild the Ani Bridge, which used to span the Arpaçay River that now marks part of the border between the two countries. Ani was a medieval Armenian city that now lies on the Turkish side of the border. Its bridge was destroyed piecemeal over the 13th and 14th centuries and only exists in ruins now. Rebuilding it is seen as a symbolic gesture toward reopening the Turkish-Armenian border, which Ankara closed in 1993 in solidarity with Azerbaijan. Nowadays the two countries are trying to normalize relations in parallel with the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, with its proposed “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) through southern Armenia serving as part of a trade corridor extending from China to Europe via Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Turkey.

LEBANON

The Israeli military (IDF) killed at least 17 people in Lebanon on Monday and has killed at least 110 there since Thursday (I haven’t seen any casualty figures for Tuesday yet). Lebanese casualty figures don’t differentiate between civilians and possible combatants but at least two children are among the recent dead and the IDF continues to kill people every day while displacing entire towns and villages despite the ostensible “ceasefire.”

ISRAEL-PALESTINE

The IDF killed at least three Palestinians across several attacks in Gaza on Tuesday. One of those attacks targeted a police station in the northern part of the territory, which is consistent with recent IDF efforts to decimate Gaza’s police force even if the 15 year old victim in this case was presumably not a law enforcement officer. The death toll in Gaza under the “ceasefire” is now at least 830.

IRAN

There are several items of note:

• The UAE Defense Ministry claimed on Tuesday that the country had come under attack for the second straight day, though there’s no indication of any casualties or damage or even any sense of what the target(s) might have been. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, meanwhile, is now denying responsibility for either Monday’s or Tuesday’s apparent attacks, insisting that Iranian forces “have not carried out any missile or drone operations against the UAE in recent days.”

• Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz seems not to have increased on Monday despite assurances of US military protection under Donald Trump’s “Project Freedom” operation. Only four vessels transited the strait in the 24 hour period prior to 9 AM GMT on Tuesday. I haven’t seen any information on activity since then so perhaps things picked up, though I’ll believe that when I see it. One cargo vessel was reportedly struck by an unspecified “projectile” in the strait on Tuesday but I haven’t seen any details apart from that. It seems exceedingly unlikely that shipping firms are going risk transiting the strait in large numbers when there’s still no guarantee that they won’t face an Iranian attack.

• This just broke as I was writing tonight’s newsletter, but Trump apparently went on social media on Tuesday evening to announce that he’s suspending “Project Freedom” a whole two days into the operation. He attributed his decision to “the request of Pakistan and other Countries...and, additionally, the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran.” It’s all very simple and believable. Global oil prices started dropping as a result of this announcement and we can probably assume that the market manipulation was his main goal.

• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed on Tuesday that ten “civilian sailors” have died as a result of Iran’s closure of the strait. He didn’t explain, so it’s unclear how many, if any, were killed in attacks of some sort. He also claimed that the war on Iran is “over,” explaining to reporters that the US military is now engaging in “a defensive operation” to enforce its blockade of Iran. As a blockade is inherently an offensive act of war none of that makes any sense, but I’m sure Rubio thought it was a clever thing to say. The Trump administration is now pretending that the war is over for purposes of dodging a War Powers vote in the US Congress, which is a vote the administration would likely win but that would nevertheless remind voters how long this conflict has been going on. Iranian media, meanwhile, is claiming that the six “IRGC speedboats” that the US military said it destroyed on Monday were actually civilian vessels—at least two of them—and that US forces killed five civilians in those strikes.

• CNN reported on Tuesday that the Israeli and US militaries are “coordinating” amid all of the excitement in the strait. This “includes preparation for a potential new round of strikes on Iran, the [Israeli] source said, which would focus on energy infrastructure and the targeted killing of senior Iranian officials.” Their source went on to say that “the intention would be to carry out a short campaign aimed at pressuring Iran into further concessions in negotiations.” This isn’t anything that hasn’t already been reported and that rationale remains as idiotic now as it was on February 28. But these reports further undermine those administration claims that the war is “over.”

• Reuters reported on Monday that the US intelligence community estimates that this war has had zero effect on Iran’s nuclear program, in that if Iranian officials were to decide to pursue a nuclear weapon the time it would take for them to achieve that goal has not changed from where it was at the end of the “12 Day War” last year. Various US officials have insisted that preventing Iran from developing nukes is the main goal of this war so it seems relevant to note that it hasn’t done anything to advance that goal. Even the argument that the war would make the Iranians more conciliatory in negotiations has proven untrue, though to be fair that was always an asinine argument.

ASIA

AFGHANISTAN

The Afghan government is accusing the Pakistani military of killing at least three civilians in a new round of attacks on Afghanistan’s Kunar province on Monday. As far as I’m aware this would be the second round of major violence between Afghanistan and Pakistan since last month’s peace talks in China, following last week’s clash. But Pakistani officials are denying that they carried out an attack at all and are accusing the Afghans of staging scenes of alleged artillery damage in an attempt to “discredit” Islamabad.

CHINA

According to Reuters, the Trump administration is threatening to curtail Chinese travel to the US over what it claims is Beijing’s reluctance to repatriate Chinese nationals who are subject to deportation. According to the administration, the Chinese government has noticeably slowed the pace of such repatriations over the past six months, citing difficulties in verifying that prospective deportees are in fact actually Chinese. The administration could make it more difficult for Chinese nationals to obtain visas to enter the US and/or require potential travelers to post cash bonds with the US government. Some 30,000 Chinese nationals are awaiting deportation from the US at present. These threats are noteworthy in that they’re emerging ahead of Donald Trump’s scheduled May 14-15 trip to China, which was already shaping up to be a tense visit for multiple reasons.

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AFRICA

SUDAN

A Rapid Support Forces drone strike killed at least five people and wounded nine more in southeastern Sudan’s White Nile state on Tuesday, according to the Sudan Doctors Network. Drones hit two fueling stations in what the network called “a deliberate attack on civilian infrastructure.”

GUINEA

World Politics Review’s Jessica Moody reports that Jamaʿat Nusrat al-Islam wa’l-Muslimin is trying to expand its reach into Guinea:

In late March, the Guinean government announced that it had dismantled a suspected terrorist network linked to JNIM and had arrested 11 people in April 2025 following a nationwide counterterrorism operation. The government did not explain why it had taken so long to announce the arrests. The dismantled cell admitted involvement in a longstanding hostage-for-ransom operation, which helped finance jihadist operations. The government’s investigation also found JNIM-affiliated WhatsApp groups that were being used to radicalize over 500 members as well as to coordinate jihadist operations in Guinea.

This is the first time that such jihadist connections have been found in the country, and it underscores the broadening reach of JNIM, which appears to be moving increasingly westward.

In recent years, JNIM has significantly expanded the scope of its attacks in Mali, Guinea’s vast, land-locked neighbor, which has historically been its core theater of operations. Its traditional strongholds are in the north and center of the country, but in 2025, nearly 20 percent of JNIM’s violent activities in Mali took place in the south and west, near the border with Guinea. Only 8 percent of violent incidents linked to JNIM took place in this part of the country in 2024.

Part of the logic behind JNIM’s geographic shift has been getting a piece of the mining action in western Mali. But additionally, having been somewhat stymied in its efforts to expand its jihadist violence south the group now appears to be probing the states west of Mali for a foothold.

(Foreign Exchanges readers can sign up for WPR’s free newsletter here and try out an all-access subscription free for 30 days, then $35 off—$77/year—after that.)

CHAD

Boko Haram fighters reportedly attacked a Chadian military base in the Lake Chad region on Monday night, killing at least 23 soldiers and wounding 26 more. The Chadian military said on Tuesday that its forces had driven the attackers off and killed several of them (though I haven’t seen any figures).

ETHIOPIA

As you may know, the Sudanese military (SAF) accused the Ethiopian government on Tuesday morning of facilitating drone strikes at the behest of the UAE government and on behalf of the RSF. The Ethiopian Foreign Ministry responded to that claim later in the day, calling it “baseless” and asserting instead that the SAF has been arming and funding Tigray People’s Liberation Front “mercenaries” who have been fighting in Sudan and conducting “incursions along Ethiopia’s western frontier.” I do not know if the SAF yet has responded to that allegation.

Speaking of the TPLF, it announced on Tuesday that it is reinstating the regional legislature that governed Tigray prior to the 2020-2022 war between the TPLF and the Ethiopian government. This follows a declaration the group made last month that it was seizing control over the regional administration from the interim government that was established in the settlement to that conflict. Ethiopian officials reacted negatively to that declaration. They haven’t yet commented on Tuesday’s announcement as far as I can tell.

ERITREA

Reuters reported on Tuesday that the Trump administration is preparing to lift US sanctions on Eritrea. A couple of weeks ago The Wall Street Journal reported that the administration was considering something like this, motivated primarily by the prospect of friendly relations with a country that borders the Red Sea and may have some exploitable mineral deposits. Apparently it’s also trying to warn Ethiopia off of going to war with Eritrea, which probably has more to do with the coastline and minerals than any principled antiwar stance but is still not a bad idea given how destructive such a conflict could be.

According to Responsible Statecraft’s Elfadil Ibrahim, the Egyptian government has been intensely involved in brokering contacts between the Trump administration and the Eritrean government. The Egyptians have their own grievances with Ethiopia, particularly around the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), and could be trying to draw the US into an emerging anti-Ethiopia regional bloc. A savvier US administration could use this opening to try to reduce regional tensions, but this administration has shown no capacity for that sort of diplomacy.

EUROPE

RUSSIA

Foreign Policy’s Maurice Oniang’o reports on the recruitment network that is drawing Kenyans to Russia, often unwittingly, for military service:

According to Kenya’s National Intelligence Service, more than 1,000 Kenyans have been recruited to fight in Russia’s war in Ukraine, with 39 hospitalized, 30 repatriated, and 28 missing in action as of Feb. 18. At that time, the Kenyan government also assessed that 35 were in military camps or bases, 89 were on the front line, one was detained, and one had completed their contract. At least one—[Clinton Nyapara] Mogesa—has been killed, although Ukrainian military intelligence has reported two additional Kenyan deaths, and some families have held memorial services for kin believed to have died in the war.

According to Kenyan authorities, the recruitment pipeline is facilitated by local agencies—some operating informally, others as registered labor export firms—working with intermediaries linked to networks in Russia and the Middle East. These agencies advertise overseas employment targeting former military personnel, police officers, and unemployed young men. The offers include salaries of about $2,700 a month; signing bonuses; and, in some cases, promises of fast-tracked Russian citizenship.

Many recruits believe they are traveling for civilian work as drivers, cooks, or hotel workers, explained Fred Ojiro, who works for Vocal Africa, a Nairobi-based human rights group assisting affected families.

“These are not soldiers who signed up to fight,” Ojiro said. “They are young men who believed they were traveling for ordinary jobs and instead found themselves in a war with no way out.”

The Russian military has increasingly relied on foreign…oh, let’s say “recruits” as the war has gone on, and the Kenyan example may be illustrative in terms of how it’s approached “recruitment” in other countries.

UKRAINE

An expansive Russian bombardment killed at least 27 people across Ukraine on Tuesday, just days or possibly hours ahead of a forthcoming “Victory Day” ceasefire depending on which country’s ceasefire plan you’re following. Indeed the extent of the assault was probably meant to clarify that the Russians would not be adopting Ukraine’s midnight Wednesday ceasefire. Ukrainian attacks, meanwhile, killed at least five people in Crimea and at least two people in the Chuvashia Republic, which is located east of Moscow and well inside Russia.

ROMANIA

The Romanian government collapsed on Tuesday after losing a no confidence vote in parliament. Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan had been left at the head of a minority government after the Social Democratic Party (PSD) quit his coalition last month in opposition to his austerity program. The PSD joined with the far-right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians party to unseat the government. The parliamentary wrangling to form a new government should begin presently.

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AMERICAS

UNITED STATES

Finally, the US military blew up two more speedboats over the past two days, one on Monday in the Caribbean and another on Tuesday in the eastern Pacific. Monday’s bombing killed at least two people and Tuesday’s at least three. As usual, in neither case did the Pentagon provide any evidence that the occupants of either boat were engaged in drug trafficking or any other criminal activity—though even if they were that would not justify their extrajudicial execution. It perhaps comes as no surprise, then, that the Trump administration has been lying about “Operation Southern Spear’s” impact on drugs entering the US, as The Intercept’s Nick Turse reports:

The word “deterrence” has become a popular Pentagon euphemism for the use of lethal strikes, in contrast to previous U.S. government efforts to marshal economic, diplomatic, and military means to convince adversaries to change their ways. “Deterrence has a signaling effect on narco-terrorists, and raises the risks with their movements,” [acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland Defense and Americas Security Affairs Joseph] Humire claimed. But last month, for example, there were eight strikes in the span of 16 days, including five in five days. “That shows that traffickers, even along that high seas route, are not being deterred,” said [the Washington Office on Latin America’s Adam] Isacson.

The amount of cocaine seized by U.S. authorities suggests the strikes have had little impact on the trade. “Really absurdly, there’s been no impact on flows of drugs toward the United States,” said Isacson. While data is limited, figures from Customs and Border Protection show that seizures at U.S. borders and along coasts have increased amid the Trump administration’s airstrikes in the Caribbean and Pacific. “CBP’s cocaine seizures have actually gone slightly up since the boat strikes began. Cocaine seized at all U.S. borders in the seven months before the strikes began was 38,000 pounds. In the seven months since, it’s 44,000 pounds — 6,000 pounds more,” Isacson explained.

Not only are cocaine seizures up, the drug’s price has been relatively unchanged. Donald Trump claimed back in January that “drugs entering our country by sea are down 97 percent” because of his killing spree, which if it were anywhere close to being true would have caused the price of cocaine to spike. He’s made similarly absurd claims about the lives that have supposedly been saved by these boat attacks. Other officials in the administration have made less grandiose (and thus contradictory) claims but they also appear to be lying.

May 4, 1799: The British East India Company and its allies capture the fortress of Seringapatam in the southern Indian sultanate of Mysore, ending a one month siege and along with it the Fourth Anglo-Mysore War and, indeed, the Anglo-Mysore Wars as a whole. The ruler of Mysore, Tipu Sultan, had been a perpetual thorn in the EIC’s side, having risen to the throne during the Second Anglo-Mysore War and having led the kingdom into the Third Anglo-Mysore War. He was killed at Seringapatam and his kingdom was mostly absorbed by the EIC and its allies, the Maratha Empire and Hyderabad.

May 4, 1904: The United States assumes ownership of a nearly defunct French project to build a canal across Panama connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. This was just a few months after Panama’s US-backed declaration of independence from Colombia, which the Roosevelt administration encouraged because the Colombian Congress wouldn’t ratify the treaty leasing the canal zone to the US. The project was completed in 1914 and it’s fair to say it was kind of a big deal.

MIDDLE EAST

SYRIA

The New Arab is reporting that “clashes” broke out between Syrian Interior Ministry security forces and the Druze “National Guard” militia on Monday morning in southern Syria’s Suwayda province. According to its account the fighting began with attacks on several security posts and escalated from there to include mortar fire at least by the ministry forces. There’s nothing in this report about casualties but that may be due more to a dearth of information than anything else.

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TODAY IN HISTORY

May 2, 1611: This is probably the date upon which English printer Robert Barker produced the very first edition of the King James Version of the Bible. I say “probably” because it’s the date you most often find cited for the KJV’s publication but as far as I know there’s no documentary evidence backing that up. Regardless, the KJV proved to be a monumental achievement that not only stands as probably the most important vernacular (meaning I’m excluding the Latin Vulgate) translation of the Bible but also a fundamental text in the development of the modern English language. So it’s probably worth commemorating.

May 2, 2011: Not long after midnight (local time), according to the official narrative, a team of US special forces operators raids a house in the Pakistani city of Abbottabad, in the process killing al-Qaeda boss Osama bin Laden. There have been more than a few alternative theories offered about bin Laden’s death, partly to try to explain how America’s Most Wanted Man was able to spend years living in the Pakistani equivalent of West Point without our good pals in Islamabad ever finding out and/or letting us know. The official story has relevance, since it’s the version of events most people believe. Anyway, the good news is that we all lived happily every after.

May 3, 1815: In a clash that offered a kind of foreshadowing of the later Battle of Waterloo, an army led by the Napoleon-installed king of Naples, Joachim Murat, is badly defeated by a smaller Austrian army at the Battle of Tolentino. Murat abandoned Naples altogether and fled to Corsica, leading to the end of the Neapolitan War and the restoration of Ferdinand I as king of Naples and Sicily.

May 3, 1978: Gary Thuerk, an employee of the Digital Equipment Corporation’s marketing department, sends a marketing email to hundreds of addresses on the US Advanced Research Projects Agency Network (ARPANET). This was the first known instance of unsolicited bulk email, AKA “spam,” and as you might expect it drew a fairly hostile reaction from the recipients. Unfortunately, that negative response only delayed the spread of the tactic and today it is of course ubiquitous.

INTERNATIONAL

The friendly friends of OPEC+ held their monthly supply meeting on Sunday and the group’s core members—Russia and Saudi Arabia, primarily—agreed to another increase in their production quota. Starting next month they will raise that limit by 188,000 barrels per day—or at least they will raise it in theory, since the current closure of the Strait of Hormuz puts a hard cap on global oil supplies that no OPEC+ quota adjustment can remedy. Notably The Gang said nothing at all about the UAE’s decision to quit their ranks, in large part so that it would no longer be bound by these oil supply caps.

MIDDLE EAST

SYRIA

The Syrian military has reportedly incorporated four new brigades comprised of former Syrian Democratic Forces fighters. They’ve been deployed to the northeastern Syrian cities of Hasakah, Kobani, Malikiyah (also known as Derik), and Qamishli. This is the most substantive step yet in the integration process that the SDF and the Syrian government agreed to undertake earlier this year.

LEBANON

The Israeli military (IDF) killed at least 10 people across southern Lebanon on Sunday and a whopping 41 for the weekend in total. While there is still a nominal ceasefire in place the Israelis are not abiding by it (nor, for that matter, is Hezbollah, though it has mostly targeted the Israeli forces that are currently occupying a large swath of southern Lebanon).

ISRAEL-PALESTINE

The IDF killed at least one person and seriously wounded four others in a raid in the West Bank city of Nablus on Sunday. Israeli officials say they were targeting “terrorists” who had thrown rocks at IDF personnel.

In Gaza, with the “ceasefire” stalled Al Jazeera reports on indications that the IDF may be gearing up to resume full-scale conflict to try to force Hamas to accept disarmament. Among its preparations, the IDF has expanded the “yellow line” to incorporate some 59 percent of Gaza under its direct control, up from 53 percent under the terms of the “ceasefire.” It’s also apparently been shifting personnel from Lebanon to Gaza.

IRAN

The US and Iranian governments have traded yet another round of proposals for resuming peace talks, to no apparent effect although the Iranians are still reviewing the latest US pitch. The newest 14-point Iranian proposal rejects an extended ceasefire and calls for ending the war within 30 days after settling an array of issues including “guarantees against future attacks, a withdrawal of US forces from around Iran, the release of frozen Iranian assets worth billions of dollars and the lifting of sanctions, war reparations, ending all hostilities, including in Lebanon, and ‘a new mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz.’” This doesn’t sound very much like what the “losing” side of the war would be offering under these circumstances, but make of that what you will.

Donald Trump rejected the Iranian framework on Saturday, despite having not yet seen it, arguing that he “can’t imagine that it would be acceptable in that [Iran has] not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done to Humanity, and the World, over the last 47 years.” Neither has the US, though I don’t see anybody making a big deal about that. On a somewhat positive note Trump didn’t sound interested in resuming the shooting war in his comments to reporters, though he’s one or two mood swings away from changing his tune on that front.

Elsewhere, a bulk cargo carrier came under attack by presumably Iranian speedboats near the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. There’s no indication of any casualties or serious damage. Trump excitedly compared his blockade of Iran to piracy on Friday. This is of course admitting to a crime but that nuance seems to have been lost on him. On Sunday he declared via social media the start of what we’re apparently supposed to call “Project Freedom,” an effort to help extricate ships that have been trapped by the strait’s closure. This is not an escort mission. It appears to be the implementation of the “Maritime Freedom Construct” coalition that the US State Department has been trying to form, which aims to “share information, coordinate diplomatically and enforce sanctions.” From Trump’s language this effort is only about freeing ships that are currently stuck, not about reopening the strait in full. Nevertheless there’s a reasonable possibility that this operation could threaten the ceasefire.

On a similar note (i.e., Donald Trump sounding like an idiot), Drop Site’s Murtaza Hussain asks the question that I’m sure has been on everybody’s mind lately: “Why isn’t Iran’s oil infrastructure exploding like Trump said it would?” This stems from an interview Trump gave to Fox News last weekend in which he said that “both mechanically and in the earth, something happens where it just explodes, and they say they only have about three days left before that happens.” The “it” there is Iran’s oil infrastructure once its storage capacity has been exhausted due to the blockade. Three days have come and gone and there are no reports of any spontaneous pipeline explosions, which is because Iran probably hasn’t exhausted its storage capacity and also because oil infrastructure doesn’t just “explode” in these situations. If the Iranians have to shut down their oil wells that could cause some damage to their infrastructure but a) it’s unclear if/when they’ll have to do that and b) the damage almost certainly won’t be catastrophic.

ASIA

PAKISTAN

UAE authorities appear to be on a deportation spree when it comes to Pakistani nationals, and especially Pakistani Shiʿa. New Lines Magazine reports that this seems to be part of a larger effort to punish Pakistan:

These reports come amid strains in UAE-Pakistan ties. As the South Asian nation emerged as a mediator between the United States and Iran, the UAE made a surprise request for its longtime ally Islamabad to immediately repay a debt of $3.5 billion, prompting Saudi Arabia, which signed a mutual defense pact with Pakistan last year, to step in with financial support.

Observers said the demand may have been punitive and reflected Abu Dhabi’s growing frustration with Islamabad, particularly as the latter deepens ties with Riyadh and over what was seen as Pakistan’s muted response to Iranian attacks on the Gulf.

Moreover, remittances from the UAE are a critical source of foreign exchange for Pakistan, so deportations could affect thousands of families as well as the broader economy.

The Pakistani government already has a fraught relationship with the country’s Shiʿa minority, so their mass deportation (according to New Lines some 5000 families, or 15,000 individuals, have been sent back to Pakistan thus far, many stripped of their possessions and denied access to their bank accounts) puts Islamabad in a difficult position.

CHINA

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued what it called a “prohibition order” on Saturday in response to another round of US sanctions designations related to Iranian oil exports. Among those targets was China’s second-largest independent or “teapot” refinery—the designation refers to facilities that handle Iranian and/or Russian oil and are not tied to major energy firms to insulate those companies from sanctions risk—along with four smaller operations. The ministry issued this order under its blocking rules, which legally prohibit designated firms from complying with the sanctions.

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AFRICA

SUDAN

Sudan’s Emergency Lawyers activist group reported that a drone strike killed at least five people in Khartoum on Saturday, blaming the Rapid Support Forces militant group. This was the second drone strike in the Sudanese capital region in less than a week, following an attack on Tuesday in the Jabal Awliya area just south of the city. The strikes break what has been a fairly calm period after the Sudanese military seized full control of the region last May. Another RSF drone strike killed at least nine people in central Sudan’s Gezira state on Saturday night. The target was Abu Aqla Kaykal, the commander of the pro-military Sudan Shield Forces militia group, and all of those who were killed were members of his family.

MALI

Jamaʿat Nusrat al-Islam wa’l-Muslimin fighters have reportedly seized a military base in the central Malian town of Hombori and have captured two checkpoints near Bamako. The Russian Africa Corps unit denied losing the Hombori facility but the reporting on the checkpoints is consistent with JNIM’s announced plan to blockade the Malian capital. The fact that the Malian army and Africa Corps have shown no hint that they’re even ramping up to a counterattack more than a week after JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front launched their major offensive in northern Mali is a fairly damning statement about their situation.

EUROPE

UKRAINE

A Russian drone strike killed at least two people in the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson on Saturday. Further attacks overnight into Sunday killed at least two people in Odesa oblast, while Ukrainian drones killed at least one person in a town west of Moscow. Ukrainian strikes also reportedly hit Russia’s Baltic Sea port of Primorsk as well as at least three of its “shadow fleet” tankers, a Karakurt-class missile corvette, and a patrol boat of some type.

GERMANY

With Donald Trump still apparently seething over Friedrich Merz’s criticism of the Iran war a few days ago, the Pentagon announced on Friday that it will withdraw 5000 US soldiers from Germany “over the next six to twelve months.” Supposedly this decision follows “a thorough review of the Department’s force posture in Europe,” but if you believe that then I’m afraid I need to ask you to submit your wallet for immediate inspection. In fairness, it’s been reported for several weeks that Trump was considering a withdrawal of forces from Europe as a way to punish NATO members who were refusing to fight Iran for him (and who, lest we forget, also refused to give him Greenland). But the decision to pull them out of Germany specifically seems pretty clearly to be a retaliation for Merz’s remarks. German officials don’t seem terribly upset by the announcement.

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AMERICAS

MEXICO

Sinaloa state Governor Rubén Rocha left his post on Friday evening, two days after the US Justice Department indicted him over his alleged ties to the Sinaloa cartel. Rocha characterized this as a “temporary leave” while he defends himself from charges he insists are false, rather than a permanent resignation. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has said that she will need US officials to provide “clear evidence” supporting their allegations against Rocha before she considers approving any extradition request.

UNITED STATES

Finally, TomDispatch’s William Hartung considers the Trump administration’s “unprecedented shift of resources” toward military spending:

Right at this moment, we are witnessing an unprecedented shift of resources from domestic investments in the United States to the military-industrial complex (aka the war machine). The only comparable period in our history was the buildup to World War II, when the United States confronted a powerful adversary in Nazi Germany with designs to control not just Europe, but the world. The current buildup is breathtaking in scope and will certainly prove devastating in its impact — not just on this country’s foreign and domestic policies but also on the economic prospects of average Americans.

When, in 2023, my colleague Ben Freeman and I first conceived of our book, The Trillion Dollar War Machine, we viewed it in part as a cautionary tale about just how high the Pentagon budget might rise in the years to come (absent pushback from Congress and the taxpaying public). By the time our book came out in November 2025, however, the Pentagon budget had already topped the $1 trillion mark and, only recently, President Trump has proposed to instantly add another $500 billion to that already staggering figure and to do so in a single year’s time. And imagine this: such a proposed increase alone is higher than the total military budget of any other nation on Earth. Mind you, the current high levels of spending have already underwritten a provocative, unnecessary intervention in Venezuela and a region-wide war in the Middle East, and the larger costs of all this in human lives and damage to the global economy are guaranteed to shape the lives of the rest of us globally for years to come.

To add insult to injury, the Pentagon announced that it would seek a $200 billion supplemental appropriation to pay for its war on Iran, which has spread across the Middle East. That $200 billion would have been in addition to the $1.5 billion proposed for the Pentagon’s future budget. According to an analysis by Pentagon budget expert Stephen Semler, the Iran war, which started on February 28th with Israeli and U.S. air strikes on that country, cost the United States more than $28 billion just in its first two weeks. And to put that in perspective, $28 billion is more than three times the Trump administration’s proposed annual budgets for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Environmental Protection Agency (at a time when the climate crisis and the need to head off future pandemics are essential to the health and security of all Americans). Worse yet, it’s all for a completely senseless war that should never have been started.

As President Trump alternates between engaging in negotiations to end the war and threatening to wipe Iran off the map — or even just walking away to bomb another day — there are reports that the supplemental budget request to pay for the war on Iran will shrink from the proposed $200 billion to $98 billion. And that $98 billion will include other things in addition to war costs, including disaster relief and aviation modernization.

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TODAY IN HISTORY

May 1, 1707: The Acts of Union, separately passed by the English and Scottish parliaments, go into effect, merging the two kingdoms into the newly christened Great Britain. The Scottish Stuart dynasty had been ruling both kingdoms (the “Glorious Revolution” notwithstanding) since James VI of Scotland succeeded Elizabeth I as James I of England, but the crowns had been held in personal union only. The Acts of Union made it a legal union and thereby completed the Scottish takeover of England. Or at least that’s how I like to think about it.

May 1, 1977: Unidentified gunmen open fire on a May Day labor rally in Istanbul’s Taksim Square, massacring somewhere around 40 people. To this day speculation remains high that a right-wing paramilitary group called Kontrgerilla, part of a US-backed network of anti-communist groups across Europe better known under the name of its Italian branch—Gladio—was responsible for the shooting with support from both the US and Turkish governments.

MIDDLE EAST

SYRIA

The imam of Damascus’s Sayyida Zaynab Mosque, Farham al-Mansour, was killed in a grenade attack on Friday. There’s no indication as to responsibility but given that he was one of Syria’s most prominent Shiʿa religious figures some suspicion presumably has to fall on Islamic State.

LEBANON

The Israeli military (IDF) killed at least four people across southern Lebanon on Friday, one day after it killed at least 28 in its biggest one day spree since the “ceasefire” began on April 16. Emergency workers are still recovering bodies from Thursday’s attacks so that death toll may rise.

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TODAY IN HISTORY

April 30, 1803: US representatives Robert Livingston and James Monroe and French representative François Barbé-Marbois sign the Louisiana Purchase Treaty in Paris. The treaty ceded France’s vast Louisiana Territory in North America to the United States, roughly doubling the young nation’s size, in return for $15 million. Livingston and Monroe intended to negotiate the purchase of the port city of New Orleans and were prepared to pay up to $10 million just for the one city. But Napoleon decided to sell the entire territory because he needed the money and because the Haitian Revolution had thrown his colonial plans for the Americas into disarray. Most of the Louisiana Territory wasn’t really Napoleon’s to sell, as it still belonged to Indigenous tribes, but in purchasing it the US bought the “right” to acquire that land by whatever means it chose.

April 30, 1975: The North Vietnamese army and the Viet Cong capture Saigon, bringing the Vietnam War to a close. The North Vietnamese had begun their assault on the city the day before, when the remaining US personnel in Saigon began an evacuation known as “Operation Frequent Wind” that cleared out the US embassy and moved some 7000 US and Vietnamese nationals out of the country in the largest helicopter evacuation in history. The North Vietnamese government, which wasn’t really the “North” Vietnamese government anymore, renamed Saigon Hồ Chí Minh City, and this date is commemorated annually in Vietnam as Reunification Day.

INTERNATIONAL

Reporters Without Borders released its annual World Press Freedom Index on Thursday and it doesn’t paint a very pretty picture:

For the first time since RSF started producing the index in 2002, more than half of the world’s countries fall into the “difficult” or “very serious” categories for press freedom – “a clear sign that journalism is increasingly criminalised worldwide”.

Only seven mostly Nordic countries are ranked with “good” press freedom, with Norway, the Netherlands and Estonia in the top three. France ranks 25th with a “satisfactory” score, while the United States ranks 64th with a “problematic” score, falling seven places since President Donald Trump took office.

RSF reports that Trump “has turned his repeated attacks on the press and journalists into a systematic policy”, citing the detention of Salvadoran journalist Mario Guevara, who was later deported, while he was documenting a protest against immigration raids, as well as the suspension of several notable public media institutions.

In Latin America, RSF highlighted the dramatic fall of Javier Milei’s Argentina (98th, -11) and of El Salvador (143rd), which has dropped 105 places since 2014 following the launch of a war against the Maras criminal gangs.

The press freedom NGO said that “Eastern Europe and the Middle East are the two most dangerous regions for journalists in the world, as they have been for 25 years”, notably putting Russia (172nd) and Iran (177th) in the bottom 10.

It added that wars and restrictions on access to information are some of the driving factors for the decline in press freedom. It cited Israel’s attacks on journalists in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and Lebanon as an example of this, ranking Israel 116th.

MIDDLE EAST

TURKEY

Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) cofounder Murat Karayılan accused the Turkish government of having “frozen” its peace process with the militant group in an interview published on Thursday. Essentially it seems Ankara has pocketed the PKK’s concessions with respect to its disarmament and eventual dissolution, and now that the onus is on Turkish officials to make concessions to the PKK they’ve decided they’re not interested. This was apparent months ago, but to have a major PKK figure like Karayılan say it openly is a significant development. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan insisted earlier this week that “the process is proceeding as it should,” which doesn’t seem to be how the PKK sees it.

LEBANON

The Israeli military (IDF) killed at least 28 people across southern Lebanon on Thursday, marking the highest single day casualty figure yet under the ostensible ceasefire. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and parliament speaker Nabih Berri both condemned the continued Israel assault, though their condemnation remains strictly rhetorical. That said, according to Reuters there is a “rift” emerging between Aoun and Berri, who by virtue of their positions represent the country’s Maronite and Shiʿa blocs, respectively, over continuing Lebanese-Israeli “peace” talks. Aoun is reportedly prepared to normalize relations with Israel in return for a full peace deal while Berri wants a modest nonaggression agreement. Their lack of cohesion is reportedly making it difficult for Saudi Arabia, which has involved itself in the peace process on Lebanon’s behalf, to establish diplomatic parameters. Notably the Saudis appear to be concerned that Aoun is moving too quickly to appease the Israelis.

Meanwhile, Haaretz reports that Israeli soldiers are increasingly pressed by Hezbollah drone attacks and are starting to criticize a mission that seems less about battling militants and more about permanently depopulating southern Lebanon:

Soldiers in the field told Haaretz that much of what they do now isn’t directly fighting Hezbollah, but systematically destroying buildings in villages in southern Lebanon.

“The only mission is to continue the destruction,” one officer said. “There is no other mission.” The IDF believes this systematic destruction of Shi’ite villages will prevent villagers from returning home.

Another commander said that, contrary to the IDF’s claim that the soldiers are destroying “terrorist infrastructure” in these villages, the destruction goes well beyond that. “It isn’t terrorist infrastructure; we’re destroying everything,” he said. The IDF terms this plan for demolishing Shi’ite villages in southern Lebanon “Operation Silver Plow.”

As part of this plan, a polygon is marked out for each of the units in the area showing the section they are responsible for razing. At the end of every day, there’s an assessment of what was accomplished, and every commander is required to report how many homes he destroyed. Each unit is assigned a number of bulldozers operated by civilian contractors that it is required to protect.

ISRAEL-PALESTINE

The IDF killed at least four people in Gaza on Thursday, according to the territory’s health officials. To my knowledge there’s been no comment from Israeli personnel about those deaths.

Reuters reports on the rats that are now infesting Gaza’s displaced persons camps:

Doctors Without Borders released a new report this week accusing the Israeli government of using water as a “weapon of war” in Gaza. The territory is still suffering from severe water shortages more than six months after the start of the “ceasefire” that was supposed to alleviate its humanitarian crisis. Israeli officials insist that they’re letting more than enough water into the territory, but with Gaza’s water infrastructure mostly obliterated people are forced to rely on expensive and logistically challenging water deliveries. The infrastructure can’t be repaired because the Israelis won’t allow the necessary materials to enter the territory.

Elsewhere, the IDF intercepted a new Gaza aid shipment by the Global Sumud Flotilla in waters off the coast of Crete on Thursday. This was much further from Gaza than the IDF usually interdicts these fleets, putting it out in international waters and making the interception at least arguably an act of piracy. Israeli personnel abducted several people from the flotilla and said that it was planning to release them in Greece later in the day.

IRAQ

Donald Trump has apparently given his assent to Ali al-Zaidi, the presumptive incoming Iraqi prime minister. The Coordination Framework political coalition nominated Zaidi on Monday after a lengthy dispute between factions backing former PM Nouri al-Maliki (the bloc’s original choice) and incumbent Mohammed Shiaʿ al-Sudani. Trump’s opposition sunk Maliki’s candidacy so his approval was seen as necessary to ensure that Zaidi would get the job.

IRAN

There are a few items of note:

• US Central Command boss Brad Cooper was scheduled to brief Donald Trump on Thursday about new military options with respect to Iran. As you may recall, Trump is now once again thinking about striking Iran, but only briefly and purely with the intention of advancing the negotiating process. This is the same logic that caused him to go to war with Iran in the first place, but hey, maybe it will work this time. It’s also possible that he’s trying to convince the Iranians that he might attack again, but for that threat to work the Iranians would actually have to fear the war’s resumption and I’m not sure that’s really the case. They may even view it as preferable to an indefinite US blockade.

• The US State Department reportedly wants its diplomats to push their host governments to support another coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This one, the “Maritime Freedom Construct,” aims to “share information, coordinate diplomatically and enforce sanctions.” It would not be sailing ships through the strait so I question the efficacy of this approach. Trump keeps demanding that US allies simply “take” the strait, though nobody has taken him up on that dare yet.

• Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued another written statement on Thursday. The upshot is that he’s not prepared to open Hormuz and doesn’t think much of making any concessions to the US. I don’t think it’s worth dwelling too much on this sort of performance.

• Friday will mark 60 days since Trump went to war with Iran, which should under the 1973 War Powers Resolution mean that the US Congress must vote on whether or not to allow him to continue the conflict. But don’t worry! There’s not going to be a vote, because House Speaker Mike Johnson has decided that the US and Iran aren’t at war anymore. Sure, technically a blockade is an act of war and the shooting could resume at any time, but…I’m sorry, I’ve lost my train of thought. The most important thing is that Congress won’t have to do its job. What a relief!

• The Pakistani government is allowing countries (excluding India) to use its territory to ship goods overland to Iran, bypassing the US blockade. This will ease the blockade’s economic blow to some extent but not completely, given the inefficiency of overland shipping compared to its maritime variant. But it will also help establish Pakistan as more of a regional trade hub and boost its direct trade contacts with Iran, bypassing Afghanistan.

ASIA

PAKISTAN

Reuters reports on the plight of hundreds of thousands of Afghan nationals who are being expelled from Pakistan even as the war between those two countries makes it much more difficult for them to get to the border and cross into Afghanistan. The expulsions themselves are already painful, particularly for those whose families fled to Pakistan decades ago and who in many cases have never set foot in Afghanistan. But the closure of the border has left them stranded in long lines of traffic in Pakistan.

MYANMAR

The AP reports that Myanmar’s military may be reasserting itself:

A little more than a year ago, the government’s military was on the back foot in Myanmar ‘s bloody civil war, pushed out of great swaths of the country’s north by an alliance of seasoned militias, and forced into defensive action around the rest of the country by other established groups and new pro-democracy guerrillas.

Today the picture has changed.

With its ranks swollen by tens of thousands of new conscripts, the military, known as the Tatmadaw, has reversed some of its losses and appears poised to resume the offensive, while some opposition groups have left the fight and infighting and supply issues have weakened others.

The junta—that’s what it is, its recent pantomime of an election notwithstanding—has offered to engage in peace talks with those opposition groups. But despite a general level of exhaustion after more than five years of war, it’s not clear that any of them are prepared to take up that offer.

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AFRICA

SUDAN

The New Humanitarian reports on the local solidarity that’s helping residents of the embattled city of El-Obeid survive Sudan’s ongoing civil war:

Home to a key army base, the city’s residents have endured drone attacks and a long-running siege imposed by the paramilitary-turned-rebel [Rapid Support Forces], while taking in more than a million displaced people who are living in camps and with host families.

Yet far from giving in, the population has revived long-standing traditions of communal solidarity while reinventing other aspects of everyday life to survive the onslaught.

Across the city, host families have welcomed in the displaced, religious networks and volunteer groups have set up community kitchens, and small clinics and community-run health points have stood in for a struggling health system.

New local food production – largely led by women – has taken root to ease shortages, while truck drivers have risked their lives to bring in supplies, using back roads that pass through remote villages and forests to avoid armed checkpoints.

“We carry the lives of families, not just goods,” said 48-year-old Mohammed al-Hassan, one of many transporters who use cars, tuk-tuks, donkey carts, and sometimes their own backs to bring in goods. He said he views the work as a “duty rather than business”.

The efforts of El Obeid’s residents – described to The New Humanitarian in interviews conducted over the phone – reflect a much wider story of local solidarity seen across all of Sudan’s states and cities for the last three years.

MALI

Following up on its shock offensive fighting alongside Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) rebels over the weekend, the jihadist group Jamaʿat Nusrat al-Islam wa’l-Muslimin (JNIM) now says it is imposing a blockade on the Malian capital city of Bamako. The group has been blocking fuel shipments from reaching the city since September, but cut a deal with the Malian junta last month to lift that restriction in return for a prisoner release. Now it sounds like they’re going to attempt a full blockade, with a spokesperson saying that “the only concession is being made for those already in Bamako to allow them to leave.”

NIGERIA

A new report from Amnesty International accuses the Nigerian government of setting up a deadly concentration camp for ethnic Fulani:

The Nigerian authorities must conduct a prompt, thorough, independent, impartial, transparent and effective investigation into the reported deaths of least 150 members of the Fulani community, most of them children, who have been arbitrarily detained by the Nigerian military in the north-central state of Kwara, Amnesty International said today.

An investigation by the human rights organization found that the victims were among 1,500 Fulani pastoralists who have been detained at the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) Orientation Camp in Yikpata for the past three months. They were transported to the camp after being forced to leave their homes amid escalating attacks by armed groups in Kwara. Instead of finding safety, they face overcrowded and unsanitary conditions, restrictions on their movements, acute malnutrition and disease. At least 100 pregnant women at the camp are at risk of life-threatening complications due to a lack of adequate maternal care.

“Members of the Fulani community face persecution on two fronts – from armed groups and the military. Instead of receiving protection, they are being denied their rights to personal liberty, livelihood, movement, education and healthcare. We met people who described losing parents, siblings, spouses, children and grandchildren at the camp. Such tragedies only add to their suffering,” said Isa Sanusi, Director of Amnesty International Nigeria.

SOMALIA

The Somali government said on Wednesday that its forces had killed at least 22 al-Shabab fighters in an operation in the Lower Shabelle region.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO

The Trump administration blacklisted former DRC President Joseph Kabila on Thursday. Kabila is allegedly working with the M23 rebel group and its Rwandan patrons, and suffice to say that his reemergence last year (after several years abroad) in the M23-controlled city of Goma didn’t do much to dispel that allegation. A Congolese military court subsequently sentenced him to execution in absentia. He’s still believed to be living in Goma and the US Treasury Department accused him of helping to finance M23’s operations.

EUROPE

RUSSIA

The governor of Russia’s Belgorod oblast, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said via social media on Friday morning that a Ukrainian drone strike had killed two teenagers in that province.

UKRAINE

What appeared to be an emerging diplomatic spat over a shipment of allegedly stolen Ukrainian grain heading for Israel was diffused on Thursday when its prospective importer refused to take delivery. The Israel Grain Importers Association announced that the Russian cargo vessel Panormitis will be required to find an alternative destination for its discharge, and maritime tracking data showed the vessel heading away from the Israeli port at Haifa. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had accused the Israeli government of knowingly accepting Ukrainian grain as the Panormitis approached. It would have been the second Russian vessel to unload allegedly Ukrainian grain at Haifa this month. The Israeli Foreign Ministry rejected claims that it had backed down due to Ukrainian pressure and instead maintained its position that Kyiv had not offered any evidence to show that the grain was in fact taken from Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine.

Ukrainian military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi has instituted a maximum two-month deployment period for front line soldiers, amid a public scandal over the conditions they have been enduring. Relatives of soldiers in one Ukrainian brigade circulated pictures of their loved ones last week showing them in disturbingly emaciated condition. This forced the Ukrainian military to acknowledge that it has not been able to keep front line units supplied with food and water (to say nothing of ammunition and other materiel), a disruption it blamed on Russian drone strikes. The Ukrainians have experimented with using robotic devices (“ground drones”) to deliver supplies while minimizing the risk of casualties, but those devices are still frequently targeted by Russian strikes. The deployment limit could help—if the already overstretched Ukrainian military can actually implement it.

KOSOVO

Acting Kosovan President Albulena ​Haxhiu has scheduled the country’s next snap election for June 7. The contest became inevitable when parliament failed again to elect an actual president earlier this week. This will be Kosovo’s third parliamentary election in about 16 months.

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AMERICAS

VENEZUELA

An American Airlines flight from Miami landed in Caracas on Thursday, which is noteworthy inasmuch as it was the first direct flight from the US to Venezuela since 2019. It marks another step toward fully normalizing bilateral commercial and diplomatic relations in this new post-Nicolás Maduro era.

CUBA

According to the AP the US fuel blockade is crippling Cuban agriculture:

Eduardo Obiols Sobredo struggles to feed Cubans young and old, a task even harder now because of a U.S. energy blockade that has caused sweeping water and power outages along with severe gas shortages.

“I feel like crying,” the 58-year-old farmer said. “It’s so sad to see crops grown with so much effort go to waste, especially when you know there are so many who need them.”

Farming equipment is falling silent across Cuba, with no fuel to power it. Farmers like Obiols Sobredo are turning to animal and manual labor, but not everyone can afford it, and resources are limited.

As a result, poverty is deepening and hunger is increasing across Cuba, a country of nearly 10 million people. The quality and quantity of fruit and vegetables is diminishing, and prices are surging even further beyond the means of many across the island nation.

While the Iran war pinches energy supplies around the world, Cuba is the rare place blaming the Trump administration’s targeted actions instead.

UNITED STATES

Finally, at The Ideas Letter Daniel Bessner offers his interpretation of our current geopolitical moment, with the US losing primacy and an unfamiliar kind of multipolarity emerging:

This new multipolar world order will be very different from the bipolar system that existed during the Cold War. In the latter conflict, the two superpowers, despite occasional diplomatic and economic engagement, largely operated independently and devoted significant resources to fighting each other in proxy wars on behalf of universalistic ideological projects. It will also be nothing like the unipolar moment, in which the United States exerted unprecedented economic, military, political, and cultural influence over global affairs. Finally, it will be unlike the Concert of Europe that lasted from the Congress of Vienna of 1814–1815 until the outbreak of World War I. Whereas in the latter period the world’s most powerful states operated within a shared diplomatic culture refined through centuries of interaction, nothing like that exists today.

Above all, we are entering an era in which ideology will matter less to geopolitical competition than it did in the nineteenth, twentieth, and early twenty-first centuries. In the last two hundred years, the world’s most important powers fought in favor of particular ideologies such as liberalism, fascism, and communism that they considered to be globally applicable. That period is over. Instead, what unites the world’s powers today is that they are not fighting in favor of universalist visions of the good society but are instead committed to the pursuit of material national interest. Ours is therefore the first era in two centuries in which raw power is the sole end of international politics.

To avoid the outbreak of a major war, we must confront this reality openly and honestly. And a good way to do so is to turn to the past, when President Franklin Delano Roosevelt envisioned a world similar to the one presently emerging.

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TODAY IN HISTORY

April 28, 224: This is the date generally given for the Battle of Hormozdgan, which effectively ended Parthian rule over the Persian Empire and installed the Sasanian dynasty in its place. Then-Emperor Artabanus IV was responding to the rise of the Sasanids under Ardashir V, king of Pars. Ardashir’s smaller but better armed and better prepared force met the Parthians at Hormozdgan—the location of which remains unconfirmed but was probably near the Iranian town of Ram-Hormoz—and won a decisive victory, killing Artabanus in the process. Ardashir V of Pars soon became Ardashir I of Persia, and the Sasanians ruled the empire until the Arab invasion swept them (and the Persian Empire in general) aside in the 7th century.

April 28, 1192: The newly elected king of Jerusalem, Conrad of Montferrat, is assassinated in the city of Tyre.

April 29, 1770: The HMS Endeavour, commanded by Royal Navy Captain James Cook, makes landfall at what is now eastern Australia’s Botany Bay. Cook’s expedition had set out on August 26, 1768, in part tasked with searching for the hitherto only rumored Terra Australis Incognita (‘unknown southern land’). Cook claimed the eastern portion of what was then called “New Holland” for Britain, giving it the name “New South Wales.” But Royal Society geographers insisted that there must be a larger southern landmass that Cook had missed, so he made a second voyage (1772-1775) that included the first European crossing of the Antarctic Circle and proved that no such landmass existed in temperate waters. A Russian vessel is believed to have been the first to sight the ice sheet around the actual southern landmass, Antarctica, in 1820.

April 29, 1916: A British army besieged at Kut, in Iraq, surrenders to the Ottomans in what was the worst military disaster in British history to that point.

MIDDLE EAST

LEBANON

The Lebanese Health Ministry reported on Wednesday that the Israeli military (IDF) killed “three emergency workers” (out of at least nine killed in total) in an apparent double-tap strike on the town of Madjal Zoun. Lebanese media is additionally reporting at least five killed in another IDF attack on the town of Jebchit, and the Lebanese army says that a strike on the town of Bint Jbeil killed one of its soldiers along with his brother.

The Lebanese Ministry of Agriculture issued a joint statement with the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Program on Wednesday warning of a food crisis affecting some 1.24 million Lebanese people. The statement anticipates that they will face “crisis levels or worse” of food insecurity between now and August as a result of the war and associated displacement.

ISRAEL-PALESTINE

IDF strikes on Gaza killed at least five people on Tuesday, including a nine year old. The child had apparently strayed too close to the “yellow line” in the Khan Younis area. On Wednesday the IDF killed one paramedic in Gaza and one person, apparently a suspect in an earlier knife attack on Israeli personnel, in a raid on a West Bank town near the city of Ramallah. It later killed a 16 year old in a raid in the West Bank city of Hebron.

Reuters reported on Wednesday that “new maps” that the IDF issued to aid groups (but did not make public) last month show it claiming control of an additional 11 percent of Gaza on top of the 53 percent it controls under the terms of the current “ceasefire.” This leaves thousands of Palestinians in a sort of limbo area between the original “yellow line” and this new “orange line.” The Israelis claim that the “orange line” is only meant to be used as a reference for aid distribution and reflects areas where NGOs need to coordinate their operations with the IDF. Supposedly it has no bearing on civilians. It’s pretty well established at this point that the IDF has been moving the “yellow line” anyway, so the distinction between these two lines may be meaningless.

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

The UAE government announced on Tuesday that it is withdrawing from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), effective May 1. It is not the first country to quit the cartel but is by far the most significant—the UAE was OPEC’s third largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia and Iraq last year. It is the fifth largest member in terms of proven oil reserves. The Emiratis are also apparently leaving the OPEC+ framework, which includes large non-OPEC oil producers like Russia, Brazil, Kazakhstan, and Mexico. Its presence outside those structures will meaningfully reduce their capacity to regulate global oil supply and prices (a capacity that had already taken a hit given the US emergence as the world’s largest oil producer several years ago). Oil supply and price are currently severely constrained by the Iran war so it will take some time to see what effect this UAE decision will have.

This move came without warning but is not entirely out of the blue, given the rising tensions between the UAE and de facto OPEC leader Saudi Arabia over the past couple of years. The most obvious reason for the exit is that, as The Conversation’s Kristian Coates Ulrichsen writes, Emirati leaders want to pump and sell more oil than they’re currently allowed to do under OPEC+ production limits. They’ve invested in increasing their production capacity and have previously expressed frustration over limits that are meant to prop up oil prices artificially (and that have been largely championed by the Saudis).

But there are other geopolitical factors at play, including the Saudi-Emirati rivalry but now also including an Emirati sense that they’ve suffered a disproportionate share of Iran’s retaliation during the war without getting the support they expected from their fellow Gulf states. Emirati officials say they’re “reviewing” the country’s other international relationships over that grievance but they don’t expect to withdraw from any other organizations (like the Gulf Cooperation Council). This grievance has pushed the UAE—at least in the short-term—in closer alignment to a US government that would prefer lower oil prices for political reasons (its asinine decision to start a war in the Persian Gulf notwithstanding) and may not be all that choked up about disarray within OPEC. And with the Emiratis potentially seeking economic relief from the US it’s not a huge leap to speculate that leaving OPEC is a topic that’s come up in recent discussions between UAE and US officials.

IRAN

Donald Trump gave an interview to his friends at Axios on Wednesday in which he said that he intends to maintain the US naval blockade on Iran until Tehran agrees to meet his demands (whatever those are at this point) on its nuclear program. This interview came after a bit of media speculation about next steps in the Iran war the previous day. The Wall Street Journal reported, in keeping with what Trump later told Axios, that he’d already begun telling aides that he prefers maintaining the blockade to either resuming the shooting war or declaring victory and getting out. Reuters reported that US intelligence agencies have been tasked with assessing how Iran might respond in a scenario where Trump declares victory and gets out, which means that is or at least was on the table. I suppose Trump has now clarified his position, though given how often he changes his mind (I use the term loosely) no interview is going to be entirely clarifying.

Trump’s bet is that economic pressure will force the Iranians to fold before the US does. His rejection of the Iranian offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in return for ending the war and the blockade has sent oil prices back into the $120 per barrel range so that theory is going to be put to the test quickly. The Iranian economy is undoubtedly worsening—the rial, already basically worthless, fell to a whopping 1.81 million per US dollar on Wednesday and is, as far as I know, still dropping. Authorities have taken several steps to increase commerce via the country’s land borders but infrastructure has been battered, people are out of work, food costs are reportedly rising, and wartime restrictions (especially the internet throttling that began during the protests back in January) are making it difficult to do business.

The question is not whether the blockade can impose economic pain on Iran, it’s whether the Iranian government can withstand that pain long enough to force the US to reconsider its approach. The closure of the Persian Gulf continues to pay havoc with the global economy and maintaining this level of naval pressure is not cheap or logistically easy. The Pentagon is telling Congress that the war has cost $25 billion so far, a figure that manages to be both huge (Spencer Ackerman notes that it’s comparable to what the US military was spending during the height of the Afghanistan “surge”) and suspiciously low given that outside estimates were pegging the cost at $25 billion a month ago. It is unclear how long the US can maintain its current approach.

(It may be worth noting here that The Washington Post reported on Wednesday afternoon that the Pentagon is preparing to rotate the USS Gerald R. Ford and its carrier group back to the US. Although the Ford has been stationed in the Mediterranean and is not participating directly in the blockade, its many reported maintenance issues are a prime example of the stress that builds up when these units remain deployed for months on end—ten in this case—which seems fairly relevant in the context of a major and now open-ended maritime operation.)

If the economic pressure is enough to cause either side to blink the question becomes whether “blinking” means giving up or going back to the shooting war. The Axios piece above mentions that the US military’s Central Command “has prepared a plan for a ‘short and powerful’ wave of strikes on Iran in hopes of breaking the negotiating deadlock.” That would not break the deadlock but it would restart the war. It is in fact the same imbecilic logic that started the war in the first place, with Trump (at Benjamin Netanyahu’s insistence) figuring that a solid weekend of bombing and political assassinations would bring the Iranians to their knees. If at first you don’t succeed, etc. Meanwhile, anonymous Iranian officials are threatening unspecified retaliation if the US blockade isn’t lifted soon. So there are threats coming from both parties even if neither seems quite ready to start fighting again.

ASIA

THAILAND

The AP has published a photo essay on the environmental damage that rare earth mining is causing in Southeast Asia:

Thailand is bearing the brunt as toxic runoff from rare earth mines in upstream Myanmar and Laos seep into the Mekong Basin, threatening millions who rely on its waters for farms and fisheries.

These heavy metal toxins imperil Southeast Asia’s globally important, multi-billion-dollar produce industry, backbone of its developing economies.

“The Mekong and Kok Rivers are both a source of food and income, which gives life to the people,” said Sayan Khamnueng of the Living Rivers Association. “The river contaminants are the biggest transboundary issue we’ve ever faced.”

Thailand’s response to the spreading problem has been limited to monitoring levels of heavy metals and educating communities about health risks. That raises concerns for Cambodia and Vietnam, downstream.

CHINA

The United States currently owes more than $4.5 billion to the United Nations in the form of unpaid dues and unfulfilled support for UN peacekeeping operations. Rather than simply pay that money as owed, the Trump administration is apparently circulating a list of demands that it wants the UN to meet first. Mostly these demands involve general austerity measures to shrink the UN and reduce its already meager capabilities, but one of the demands is directed at China, or more specifically at the “tens of millions of dollars” that Beijing deposits each year in “a discretionary fund housed in the office of the U.N. secretary-general.” Apparently this is supposed to reduce Chinese influence within the UN. If the US is really worried about losing UN influence relative to China I would think that paying its bills would be a logical step to take, but what do I know?

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AFRICA

SUDAN

In Sudan-related news:

• A drone strike killed at least 11 people in the city of Rabak, in southeastern Sudan’s White Nile state, on Tuesday. The strike targeted the “Joint Forces,” an alliance of militant groups that are supporting the Sudanese military (SAF), so the Rapid Support Forces group was presumably responsible.

• Also on Tuesday, the SAF said that its forces had repelled a new RSF attack on the Sali area in neighboring Blue Nile state. The RSF has attacked that locale at least twice in the past week.

• Elsewhere in Blue Nile, the Sudan Doctors Network issued a new warning on Wednesday that the presence of over 100,000 displaced persons in the state capital, Ad-Damazin, is stretching that city to the breaking point. The longer the displacement continues without significant intervention the closer this situation is going to get to a major catastrophe.

• The UN has blacklisted Algoney Hamdan Dagalo, the brother of RSF leader Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo, along with three Colombian mercenaries accused of procuring additional mercenaries on the RSF’s behalf.

MALI

The Malian military reportedly chased Islamic State fighters out of the town of Ménaka on Wednesday. Although they did not participate in the weekend offensive involving Tuareg rebels and Jamaʿat Nusrat al-Islam wa’l-Muslimin fighters, IS appears to have tried to take advantage of the chaos of that operation to seize the town, which is located near the Nigerien border. Elsewhere across northern Mali, civilians and security forces alike appear to be preparing themselves for a new round of militant attacks.

NIGERIA

The Nigerian military claimed on Wednesday that its forces have killed at least 18 militants in multiple operations in the country’s northeastern Borno state. Followup airstrikes were still reportedly being conducted so those operations aren’t entirely over as yet.

SOUTH SUDAN

A new report from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Food Program, and UNICEF released on Tuesday warns that some 7.8 million people in South Sudan (56 percent of the country’s population) are at risk of severe food insecurity due to “conflict and displacement.” It further estimates that some 2.2 million South Sudanese children aged six months to five years are facing “acute malnutrition” and some 700,000 are at “grave risk” of death. Worsening clashes between the South Sudanese military and various militant groups have made humanitarian intervention much more difficult in a country where living conditions were already poor.

EUROPE

UKRAINE

There are several items of note:

• Russian attacks killed at least three people and wounded another 17 across Ukraine on Wednesday. Heavy fighting in Ukraine’s Donetsk oblast reportedly forced the displacement of at least 867 people from areas near the front line, according to Russia’s Interfax news service.

• Donald Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone on Wednesday and according to Trump they discussed a potential ceasefire. Or as he put it to reporters, “I suggested a little bit of a cease-fire and I think he might do that.” I hope nobody is holding their breath on this, but after their brief (and disputed) Easter ceasefire earlier this month it is conceivable that the parties could agree to do it again for the “Victory Day” commemoration on May 9.

• The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry summoned Israel’s ambassador on Tuesday after a second Russian cargo ship allegedly carrying stolen Ukrainian grain docked at Haifa. The previous incident earlier this month prompted a request from the Ukrainians for the Israelis to detain that Russian vessel, which apparently fell on deaf ears. Once could be an oversight but twice is a pattern and the tenor of Ukrainian comments has turned more critical of the Israeli government, which has responded by insisting that Ukrainian officials haven’t offered any evidence that the grain was stolen and criticizing their decision to make this issue public.

• Acting US ambassador to Ukraine Julie Davis, who also serves as US ambassador to Cyprus, announced on Tuesday that she’s stepping down in June and The Financial Times reported that she is leaving because of frustrations with the Trump administration’s Ukraine policy. Davis has been serving as US chargé d’affaires in Kyiv since May, after previous ambassador Bridget Brink resigned for similar reasons. Aside from disagreements over Ukraine, Davis was reportedly “blindsided” when Trump nominated Republican mega-donor John Breslow to replace her in Cyprus back in October.

KOSOVO

The Kosovan parliament missed its final deadline to elect a new national president on Tuesday, ensuring that the country will hold its third parliamentary election in roughly 18 months sometime later this year. Having already failed to elect a president last month the writing was on the wall, but Kosovan Prime Minister Albin Kurti gave it one last try before the legal deadline expired at midnight. As before, opposition parties boycotted the session and thus denied Kurti the two-thirds quorum necessary for a legitimate election. Parliament speaker Albulena ​Haxhiu, who is also acting president at the moment, should announce the date of the election soon.

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AMERICAS

COLOMBIA

The ex-Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) Central General Staff faction has claimed responsibility for a bombing on a highway in Colombia’s Cauca department that killed at least 21 people and wounded dozens more on Saturday. It issued a somewhat apologetic statement attributing the bombing to a “tactical error” made amid clashes with Colombian security forces.

PANAMA

The United States and the governments of five Latin American and Caribbean nations—Bolivia, Costa Rica, Guyana, Paraguay, and Trinidad and Tobago—issued a joint statement on Wednesday criticizing China for imposing what they called “targeted economic pressure” on Panama after an unfavorable court ruling. Back in January, the Panamanian Supreme Court annulled the contracts under which the Hong Kong firm CK Hutchison was administering the Balboa and Cristóbal terminals at the Pacific and Atlantic ends (respectively) of the Panama Canal. Beijing has since detained dozens of Panamanian-flagged ships, including 70 in March alone. The court’s decision to invalidate those contracts came in the context of previous threats by Donald Trump to seize the canal and US companies frequently use Panamanian-flagged container vessels for moving cargo so there are clearly bigger geopolitical issues at work here.

MEXICO

The US Justice Department announced on Wednesday that it is charging several officials in Mexico’s Sinaloa state, including governor Rubén Rocha, of colluding with the Sinaloa Cartel. This is certainly an escalation in the Trump administration’s assault on Mexican institutions and in particular on Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, given that Rocha is also from her Morena Party. Rocha issued a statement via social media saying that the charges “lack any truth or foundation whatsoever.”

HAITI

The last detachment of Kenyan police left Haiti on Monday, their failed anti-gang mission giving way to the UN-backed “Gang Suppression Force” that’s supposed to feature manpower contributions from Chad and several other still unnamed countries. The Kenyan-led mission never approached either its funding or manpower goals and was generally ineffectual. The new GSF operation appears to be off to a better start on both fronts and it is hoped that it will reach its full manpower extent (around 5500 personnel) by October.

UNITED STATES

Finally, while we’re tallying up the costs of the Iran war, The Intercept reports on a new Brown University estimate of the money that the Trump administration has spent on its American military adventures:

The Pentagon won’t disclose the price tag of its wars in the Western Hemisphere, but a new analysis by Brown University’s Costs of War Project, provided exclusively to The Intercept, offers the first window onto the ballooning costs.

By the most cautious estimate, the U.S. military’s intervention in Venezuela and attacks on boats in the Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific — Operation Absolute Resolve and Operation Southern Spear, respectively — have already cost taxpayers at least $4.7 billion.

The Costs of War analysis is the most comprehensive accounting of the U.S. air, naval, and Special Operations expenses — including some troop deployments and munitions — used in the two campaigns between August 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026. The need for such an estimate stems from the refusal of the Department of War to provide a tally of costs to lawmakers or The Intercept.

The researchers behind the Costs of War estimate say it’s almost assuredly an undercount.

April 27, 1960: The Togolese Republic declares its independence from France. Commemorated annually as Independence Day in Togo.

April 27, 1961: The Republic of Sierra Leone gains its independence from the United Kingdom as the result of negotiations that had taken place the previous year. Commemorated annually as Independence Day in Sierra Leone.

April 27, 1978: The People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan, with the support of the Soviet Union, undertakes a coup against Afghan President Mohammed Daoud Khan that is known as the “Saur Revolution.” PDPA leader Nur Muhammad Taraki assumed the presidency after Khan’s execution on April 28, and mismanaged things so badly that his own party ousted and executed him in September 1979. That incident led directly to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979 and, with few breaks, Afghanistan was in a state of war from then on until the US withdrawal in 2021.

MIDDLE EAST

LEBANON

The Israeli military (IDF) carried out multiple airstrikes in eastern Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley on Monday, the first time it’s attacked that part of the country since the start of the “ceasefire” on April 16. I hadn’t seen any reports of casualties at time of writing.

The New Arab’s Joe Macaron reports that the three week extension of the Lebanese “ceasefire” came with a major stipulation: the Lebanese government is supposed to have a “clear and achievable” plan for disarming Hezbollah by the time it expires on May 17. If it does not, and presumably the Israeli government will be the entity that determines whether the plan is in fact “clear and achievable,” then it seems that all bets will be off. There will of course be no discussion of an IDF withdrawal, or even an actual IDF ceasefire instead of whatever this is, until the plan is submitted.

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TODAY IN HISTORY

April 25, 775: An Armenian rebellion against the Abbasid Caliphate is cut short at the Battle of Bagrevand. Many of the leading Armenian families that supported the uprising suffered greatly in its aftermath and the Abbasids began encouraging migration from other parts of their empire into the southern Caucasus. This policy helped to remake the region of Caucasian Albania, which more or less corresponds to modern Azerbaijan.

April 25, 1846: A small detachment of US soldiers is resoundingly defeated by a much larger Mexican contingent in what became known as the Thornton Affair, after the US commander Captain Seth Thornton. This was the first military engagement of the Mexican-American War, which ended in February 1848 with Mexico’s surrender, including its recognition of the US annexation of Texas and the cession of the territory that includes the modern states of California, Nevada, and Utah as well as parts of Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona.

April 25, 1898: The US Congress declares war on Spain retroactive to the imposition of a US naval blockade on Cuba on April 21. This marks the start of the Spanish-American War, which ended in August with Spain’s surrender and the cession of Guam, the Philippines, and Puerto Rico to the US along with a renunciation of Spain’s claim on Cuba.

April 26, 1803: At around 1 in the afternoon a hail of some 3000 rock fragments, weighing around 37 kilograms in total, rains down upon the town of L’Aigle in France’s Normandy region. A French scientist named Jean-Baptiste Biot was dispatched to catalog and study the event by the French Academy of Sciences. His fieldwork determined conclusively that the fragments were of extraterrestrial origin, establishing near-definitive proof for the hitherto widely questioned existence of meteors. Biot’s work at L’Aigle birthed an entirely new field of study, meteoritics, and was the first of many significant scientific contributions he would make in his career.

April 26, 2005: Under considerable international pressure due to its suspected involvement in the February 14 assassination of then-Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic al-Hariri, the Syrian government withdraws the last of its occupation forces from Lebanon. Syria had invaded Lebanon in May 1976 during that country’s civil war, in support of Maronite and conservative Muslim factions and in opposition to the Palestine Liberation Organization and leftist militias. Tensions later emerged between the Syrians and some Maronite leaders, including former Lebanese President Michel Aoun. Initially the Syrian military presence in Lebanon was legitimized by the Arab League under the auspices of a peacekeeping force, but by the mid-1980s the Arab League had stopped renewing its mandate and the Syrian presence in Lebanon could be considered a full-fledged military occupation.

INTERNATIONAL

A new report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) finds that global military spending hit a collective $2.9 trillion last year, breaking the record set all the way back in 2024. Amazingly the US actually spent less than it did the previous year, owing to the absence of new military aid to Ukraine. But massive increases in military spending across Europe, including by Russia and Ukraine, and across Asia, including by China and Japan, more than made up the difference.

MIDDLE EAST

LEBANON

The Israeli military (IDF) killed at least four people in two airstrikes in southern Lebanon’s Nabatieh province on Saturday. Both strikes took place north of the Litani River, outside of the zone in which the IDF has decreed it will operate with impunity. On Sunday the IDF issued evacuation orders for seven towns north of the river as it prepared to retaliate for a Hezbollah attack that had killed one Israeli soldier earlier in the day. It proceeded to kill at least 14 people and wound 37 more. That made it the single deadliest day since the start of Lebanon’s ostensible ceasefire on April 16.

ISRAEL-PALESTINE

The IDF killed at least four people in multiple incidents across Gaza on Sunday. Those attacks capped off a busy “ceasefire” weekend for the Israelis, who killed at least 13 people on Friday. Local officials in Gaza say the death toll under the “ceasefire” has now topped 800.

The Palestinian Authority held municipal elections in the West Bank and in Gaza’s Deir al-Balah community on Sunday. Turnout was low—around 56 percent in the West Bank and 23 percent in Deir al-Balah—but authorities seemed pleased that the vote happened at all and characterized it as a sort of dry run for a potential presidential and/or parliamentary election. PA President Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah party seems to have been the big winner, despite his and its overall unpopularity. Its candidates apparently ran unopposed in much of the West Bank. Hamas’s favored list (the party itself officially boycotted the vote) won only two of the 15 council seats that were up for grabs in Deir al-Balah.

IRAN

To I assume no great surprise, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner did not wind up meeting with Iranian representatives in Pakistan over the weekend, as the Trump administration had teased on Friday. In fact the two men never left the US. Donald Trump tried to portray this to reporters as though he’d called off the talks, but in reality Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi left Pakistan and thus rendered the Witkoff-Kushner trip pointless. Trump said via social media that if the Iranians want to talk they can pick up a phone, while blaming the “tremendous infighting and confusion within their ‘leadership’” for the lack of diplomacy during his ceasefire. He’s made repeated assertions about chaos in Tehran without offering any evidence to support them. It is a convenient way for him to frame his own diplomatic failures.

Iranian state media is claiming that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has begun “reverse engineering” undetonated US munitions. Who knows if this is actually true, but it would be in keeping with the rest of this boneheaded conflict if it wound up advancing Iran’s missile program instead of degrading it. Meanwhile, US state media Axios is reporting that Araghchi conveyed to the Pakistanis a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, while tabling nuclear issues for future negotiations. One assumes that the Trump administration won’t go for this because US officials feel that the war, or at least the current US naval blockade, is their best chance of extracting nuclear concessions from Tehran.

ASIA

AFGHANISTAN

The Afghan Foreign Ministry is assuring the 1100 or so Afghan nationals who are currently stranded in Qatar by the Trump administration’s xenophobia that they need not worry about returning home. As we noted a few days ago, the administration is offering those Afghan nationals a choice between returning to Afghanistan or being relocated to the Democratic Republic of the Congo. All of them should be eligible for US visas under the program that aimed to protect Afghans who worked with the US military between 2001 and 2021 from reprisals by the Taliban, but the administration scrapped that program last year and they’ve remained in Qatar. The Taliban insists that they will face no violence if they go back to Afghanistan but there’s not much reason to believe that and it’s unclear how many would actually agree to return. That said, there do not seem to be many (or any) takers for moving to the DRC either.

MALAYSIA

The Wall Street Journal reports that the US search for non-Chinese sources of rare earth metals has turned in part to Malaysia:

The Pentagon’s push to get its hands on the rarest of the rare-earth elements leads all the way to this small port city [Kuntan] in Malaysia.

Here, Lynas Rare Earths, an Australian company, has begun pumping out heavy rare earths, the elusive kind that China dominates.

“No one had made a separated heavy rare earth outside of China in 20 years,” said Amanda Lacaze, Lynas’s chief executive. The company’s chief operating officer, Pol Le Roux, said it had actually been 30 years.

When China cut off exports of heavy rare-earth elements during trade tensions last year, automobile factories in the U.S. and Europe were forced to stop production. Now, Lynas is at the vanguard of an effort by the U.S. and allies to prevent Beijing from using its monopoly power to squeeze the rest of the world.

The Pentagon is opening its wallet in unusual ways to ensure supplies. In March 2026, Lynas announced a preliminary $96 million deal in which the Pentagon would purchase Lynas’s rare earths.

And Las Vegas-headquartered MP Materials, backed by billions of dollars in U.S. government support, is planning its own refinery for heavy rare earths that is set to come online later this year.

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AFRICA

SUDAN

Drone strikes killed at least seven people in El-Obeid, the capital of Sudan’s North Kordofan state, on Saturday, according to the Sudan Doctors Network. It described a series of attacks specifically targeting residential parts of the city. El-Obeid is under military control, so while there’s been no claim of responsibility it’s safe to assume that the strikes were carried out by Rapid Support Forces militants.

MALI

A coordinated offensive involving Tuareg rebels from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and jihadist militants from Jamaʿat Nusrat al-Islam wa’l-Muslimin (JNIM) struck multiple locations across Mali on Saturday, killing a still-unknown number of people including Malian Defense Minister Sadio Camara. He was killed in an attack on the town of Kati, located just north of the Malian capital Bamako and the site of the country’s largest military base. Bamako’s airport was also among Saturday’s targets, along with major towns and cities primarily in northern Mali where the FLA operates. It’s still difficult to assess the aftermath and in some places the fighting hasn’t ended, for example in the strategically important northeastern town of Kidal.

To my knowledge this is the first case of JNIM and Tuareg rebels collaborating on a major military operation but there is a prior relationship there—one of JNIM’s constituent organizations, Ansar Dine, emerged amid the 2012 Tuareg uprising to which the FLA also traces its origins. JNIM leader Iyad Ag Ghali was a prominent participant in that rebellion and in the 1990-1995 Tuareg rebellion. It’s unclear what this collaboration might mean moving forward but what is clear is that neither the Malian junta nor its Russian Africa Corps auxiliaries were prepared for this assault. That could undermine the junta’s legitimacy with Malians and, more importantly, among the lower ranks of the Malian military.

EUROPE

UKRAINE

Russian and Ukrainian airstrikes killed at least 16 people in total over the weekend, including at least nine in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. Ukrainian attacks killed at least one person in Crimea, at least three people in Russian-occupied Luhansk oblast, and at least one in Russia’s Belgorod oblast. There are also reports of at least two people killed in Ukraine’s Chernihiv oblast and at least one in Zaporizhzhia oblast, which would bring the total number of deaths to at least 17. This weekend marked the 40th anniversary of the nuclear disaster at Ukraine’s Chernobyl power plant, which prompted new calls from the International Atomic Energy Agency for repairs to that site’s protective outer dome. A Russian strike damaged it over a year ago.

BULGARIA

Responsible Statecraft’s Ventzislav Marinov and Almut Rochowanski argue that media coverage of presumptive new Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev, that attributes his party’s recent electoral victory to his supposed anti-Europe/pro-Russia sentiments, is missing the mark:

Radev, who served as Bulgaria’s president from 2017 until earlier this year, has called for Europe to start talking to Russia, but this hardly amounts to being “Putin’s proxy.” He trained at U.S. Air Force Squadron Officer School, obtained a master’s degree at the Air War College, and, as commander of Bulgaria’s air force, oversaw NATO interoperability. A former fighter pilot with the rank of general, his pragmatic approach to making peace with Russia may reflect a veteran’s wariness of war.

Radev is nominally from the center left, but in practice has come across as a “milquetoast neoliberal.” His electoral manifesto reads blandly centrist, as if written by AI.

Under the opportunistic gaze of foreign policy elites in Brussels, Berlin or Washington, Bulgaria’s elections were all about geopolitics, about the single-minded focus on the war with Russia. But while matters of war, peace, security, and Bulgaria’s place in the world played into voters’ decisions, they did so for reasons centered on their own lives and communities.

For example, how can strong majorities of Bulgarians support EU membership and yet vote for a candidate who has been portrayed as an EU-skeptic? Perhaps it is because the gains from EU membership have been distributed unequally, between the cities and the countryside, between the elites and average citizens.

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AMERICAS

COLOMBIA

A bombing targeting a bus in Colombia’s Cauca department killed at least 20 people and wounded at least 36 others on Saturday. Authorities are attributing it to the ex-Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) “Central General Staff” faction. This was the deadliest of a recent spate of violent incidents in Cauca and other parts of southwestern Colombia—according to the AP “more than two dozen incidents [have been] reported in the past three days.” Another ex-FARC faction is also believed to be contributing to the spree.

UNITED STATES

As you’ve no doubt heard, a gunman attacked the White House Correspondents Dinner in Washington on Saturday night but was subdued by security forces before he could cause serious harm (one US Secret Service officer was shot in his bulletproof vest but appears to be doing well). This isn’t something that’s really on the radar of this newsletter but I felt I should mention it at least. I gather that the Trump administration is attempting to paint the attacker as a far left, “anti-Christian” zealot, but reporting by Ken Klippenstein suggests that he was in fact a practicing Christian who was motivated in part by outrage over a recent social media post in which Donald Trump portrayed himself as Jesus.

Elsewhere, the US military blew up another boat in the eastern Pacific on Friday, killing at least two people. It blew up yet another on Sunday, killing at least three people. US Southern Command has now extrajudicially executed more than 185 people since beginning this spree in early September.

Finally, TomDispatch’s Alfred McCoy places the Iran war into a historical context of imperial decline:

Writing more than 2,000 years ago, the Greek historian Plutarch gave us an eloquent description of what modern historians now call “micro-militarism.” When an imperial power like Athens then, or America now, is in decline, its leaders often react emotionally by mounting seemingly bold military strikes in hopes of regaining the imperial grandeur that’s slipping through their fingers. Instead of another of the great victories the empire won at its peak of power, however, such military misadventures only serve to accelerate the ongoing decline, erasing whatever aura of imperial majesty remains and revealing instead the moral rot deep inside the ruling elite.

There is mounting historical evidence that America is indeed an empire in steep decline, while President Donald Trump’s war of choice against Iran is becoming the sort of micro-military disaster that helped destroy successive empires over the past 2,500 years — from ancient Athens to medieval Portugal to modern Spain, Great Britain, and now the United States. And at the core of every such ill-fated war-making decision lay a problematic leader, often born into wealth and prestige, whose personal inadequacies reflected and ramified the many irrationalities that make imperial decline such a painful process.

During that demoralizing downward spiral, imperial armies, so lethal in an empire’s ascent, can err by plunging their countries into draining, even disastrous “micro-military” misadventures — psychologically compensatory efforts to salve the loss of imperial power by trying to occupy new territories or display awe-inspiring military might. Although such micro-militarism often chose targets that proved strategically unsustainable, the psychological pressures upon declining empires are so strong that they all too often gamble their prestige on just such misadventures. Not only did such disasters add financial pressures to a fading empire’s many troubles, but in a humiliating fashion, they also invariably exposed its eroding power while exacerbating the destabilizing impact of imperial decline in the capitals of empire (whether Athens, Lisbon, Madrid, London, or Washington, D.C.).

In our moment, when the bombs stop falling and the rubble is finally cleared from the streets of Tehran and Beirut, the impact on U.S. global power of such a de facto defeat will become all too clear — as alliances like NATO atrophy, American hegemony evaporates, legitimacy is lost, global disorder rises, and the world economy suffers.

April 24, 1547: Habsburg/Holy Roman Emperor Charles V’s army virtually annihilates a smaller force led by Protestant princes John Frederick I of Saxony and Philip I of Hesse at the Battle of Mühlberg in Saxony. The battle, and particularly the capture of John Frederick, marked the effective end of the 1546-1547 Schmalkaldic War and the first iteration of the Schmalkaldic League, an alliance of Protestant German nobles. It did not, of course, mark the end of Protestantism. A second Schmalkaldic War in 1552 went worse for the Habsburgs and resulted in the Peace of Passau and, in 1555, the Peace of Augsburg and its famous principle of cuius regio, eius religio (“whose realm, their religion”).

April 24, 1915: Ottoman authorities arrest a group of around 250 Armenian intellectuals in Istanbul in what has come to be known as “Red Sunday.” They were forcibly deported to other parts of the empire and most were ultimately killed. The incident is considered a kind of “decapitation strike” against the empire’s Armenian community and is regarded as the first major event of the Armenian Genocide. April 24 is commemorated as Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day within Armenia and by diaspora Armenians, as well as in countries that have recognized the genocide.

April 24, 1916: Some 1200 Irish republicans, including members of the Irish Volunteers and the Irish Citizen Army, commemorate Easter Monday by seizing a number of key positions in Dublin and declaring the advent of an independent “Irish republic.” The “Easter Rising,” as it’s known, was suppressed within six days by UK security forces, but the atrocities they committed during and after that suppression fueled greater levels of anti-UK sentiment among the Irish population. The Rising is now regarded as one of the major milestones of the “Irish revolutionary period,” as that period’s first serious armed conflict.

MIDDLE EAST

SYRIA

The New Arab’s Mohamad Karkas reports that the Israeli military (IDF) is, without much international attention, continuing to brutalize southern Syria:

Local sources told The New Arab that a huge explosion rocked several areas in Quneitra province.

They said it originated from the destroyed city of Quneitra, where an Israeli military base is located, and resulted from demolition operations targeting buildings inside the city.

The sources explained that these explosions are part of a series of systematic demolition operations by Israel that the area has witnessed for some time.

This incident is an extension of similar events witnessed in the destroyed city of Quneitra in previous periods.

Israeli occupation forces carried out explosions and destruction that affected many buildings, including parts of al-Hassan bin al-Haytham Secondary School, the old Golan hospital, and the historic al-Andalus cinema.

These sites hold both historical and service value.

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TODAY IN HISTORY

April 23, 1817: Under their leader Miloš Obrenović, a group of Serbian rebels in the village of Takovo declare independence from the Ottoman Empire, setting off the Second Serbian Uprising. After a conflict that lasted until late July 1817, the rebels were able to win de facto independence from the Ottomans, who recognized their autonomous state as the “Principality of Serbia.” The Serbs finally gained full independence at the Congress of Berlin in 1878.

April 23, 1985: In what is considered one of the most catastrophically bad business decisions of all time, the Coca-Cola Company introduces a new formula for its flagship beverage. Although the new formula had outperformed the old one in taste tests, the move was so overwhelmingly unpopular that the company revived the old formula a mere three months later, first as “Coca-Cola Classic” and later, after it had phased out the new formula, as just “Coca-Cola” again. The switch seemed so baffling that it spawned a plethora of conspiracy theories, ranging from a ploy to boost sales to a cover story to disguise changes in the original formula (a switch from sugar to high fructose corn syrup and/or the removal of its remaining coca elements).

MIDDLE EAST

LEBANON

Israeli and Lebanese emissaries held their second round of direct talks in Washington on Thursday, this time including an in-person appearance by Donald Trump himself. They must have been so excited. Afterward Trump announced that they had agreed to extend the ten day ceasefire that went into effect last Friday for at least another three weeks. He suggested via social media that he could host a meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun soon, perhaps within that three week window. At the very least these negotiations should begin to shift from preliminary to substantive, with a particular focus on convincing the Lebanese government to join Israel’s war against Hezbollah.

ISRAEL-PALESTINE

The Israeli military (IDF) killed at least four people in two airstrikes in Gaza on Thursday. Israeli officials claimed that one of the attacks, which killed one person and wounded several others in Khan Younis, targeted a group of “militants” but have said nothing about the other strike, which killed at least three people in the Maghazi displaced persons area. In the West Bank, meanwhile, IDF soldiers shot and killed a 15 year old during a raid in the city of Nablus.

KUWAIT

Kuwaiti authorities have released journalist Ahmed Shihab-Eldin after 52 days in detention for reporting on the war. He’d been arrested for “spreading false information, harming national security and misusing his mobile phone,” most likely because he posted a video of a US fighter crashing in Kuwait. He was apparently acquitted on all charges.

IRAN

In Iran-related news:

• Air defenses may have activated in Tehran on Thursday, as Iranian media reported explosions above the city. Given that those reports came a short time after Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared during a security meeting that the IDF is just “awaiting a green light from the United States…to return Iran to the age of darkness and stone” I wouldn’t blame anybody for jumping to conclusions. However, at this point it doesn’t appear that there’s any definitive explanation for those explosions and certainly no indication that they were the result of any new Israeli and/or US attack.

• The USS George H. W. Bush and its carrier group arrived in the region on Thursday, adding to the armada that the US military has amassed around Iran. The newly arrived vessels will likely be put to use maintaining the US naval blockade but also if the Trump administration were contemplating a resumption of the shooting war then the arrival of a third aircraft carrier to the war zone would be a significant development.

• Donald Trump took to social media on Thursday to decree that the US Navy will “shoot and kill any boat” found to be laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. He also claimed that US “mine ‘sweepers’ are clearing the Strait right now” though that seems unlikely unless he’s referring to small anti-mine drones or something along those lines. The US Navy does have mine countermeasures vessels in the area but whether it would be willing to risk putting them in the strait under the current tenuous ceasefire is an open question. The Trump administration later broadcast via Barak Ravid that the “Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy laid more mines in the Strait of Hormuz this week,” though whether that’s actually true or just a means to explain Trump’s post is unclear.

• The New York Times reported on Thursday that Iran’s power structure has changed fundamentally in the transition from former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to his son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei. Mojtaba, in this narrative, is relying heavily on a “collective of commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps,” serving more as a “director of the board” than as a sole decision maker. To some degree this is a product of circumstance, as Mojtaba is in hiding and still physically compromised by the wounds he suffered in the airstrike that killed his father in late February. But it also reflects his longstanding relationship with senior IRGC figures and a dynamic in which he’s somewhat beholden to them for installing him in his position and maintaining him there. Those IRGC figures are likely to be less open to negotiation and compromise with the US than some of the senior civilian figures in the Iranian government, who had a stronger voice in deliberations under Ali Khamenei than they do now.

• AFP tries to project the degree to which the US blockade is likely to squeeze the Iranian economy and the consensus seems to be that it’s not going to be enough to force Tehran to surrender to Trump’s demands. A lengthy blockade—two to three months or beyond—could do a lot of damage but probably not as much damage as it will do to the Gulf Cooperation Council states, whose tolerance for economic pain is demonstrably lower than Iran’s. A better bet may be that global economic strife causes the Chinese government to nudge Iran toward concessions but it’s debatable whether it would do so and whether the Iranians would respond positively to that sort of pressure.

• The head of the United Nations Development Program, Alexander De Croo, warned on Thursday that the war’s disruptions to global fuel and fertilizer supplies could force some 30 million people into poverty. The UNDP is expecting a spike in food insecurity later this year, as the lack of proper fertilizer for this year’s planting season really starts to take effect. There’s nothing that can really be done to remedy that now.

ASIA

CAMBODIA

The US Treasury Department blacklisted Cambodian Senator Kok An on Thursday, accusing him of having ties to online scam operations based in that country. It also designated 28 people and entities that are allegedly part of his scam “network.”

INDONESIA

Indonesian Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa speculated at a symposium in Jakarta on Wednesday that it might be a neat idea to start charging tolls for ships traversing the Malacca Strait. It’s unclear if he was serious, kidding, or kidding on the square, but if it was either the first or third of those options it means that recent events involving the Strait of Hormuz have gotten people thinking about the potential for monetizing other major maritime chokepoints around the world. The revenues of such a tolling system, which would have to be split between Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, could be substantial given that the strait is the most direct route between the Indian and Pacific oceans.

NORTH KOREA

The Russian and North Korean governments are planning to construct a new road bridge spanning their border along the Tumen River, according to a report from North Korean state media on Thursday. This is the latest expression of their blossoming bilateral relationship and is a project that Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un discussed back in 2024, when Putin visited Pyongyang to conclude a “comprehensive partnership” agreement with Kim. The bridge will link the North Korean border city of Rason to Russia’s national highway network.

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AFRICA

SUDAN

The Sudanese military (SAF) says that it “launched a series of coordinated air and ground operations” across multiple Sudanese states on Thursday, targeting Rapid Support Forces air defense positions and facilities. The states targeted have been Blue Nile; North and West Kordofan; and South, Central, and North Darfur.

BURKINA FASO

Amid a recent surge in pieces assessing the administration of Burkinabè junta leader Ibrahim Traoré, Alex Thurston offers some thoughts about why he’s proven so popular both domestically and abroad:

Here we might pause to ask why it is Traoré who electrifies people when several other leaders, including like-minded ones, also came to power in coups around the same time and have ruled with styles that partly overlap with his. Traoré stands out among this group for several reasons:

• He came out of the middle ranks of the military, unlike Chad’s Mahamat Déby (whose father ruled that country from 1990-2021) and Niger’s Abdourahmane Tiani (who was head of the presidential guard at the time of the 2023 coup in Niger).

• He has ruled in an assertive style, one that welcomes international attention, in contrast to the quieter, more domestically focused and conventional style of Guinea’s Mamady Doumbouya (who took power in 2021 and who has a far different relationship to France - among other things, his wife is a French citizen).

• He is somehow more camera-ready, more of a romantic hero, than Mali’s Assimi Goïta, who is the most similar to Traoré of all the new Sahelian/West African military leaders. One could imagine a slightly different world in which Goïta, who also saw a significant amount of combat and carries an aura of a man of action, had become the key symbol of Sahelian and pan-African sovereignty in our era; but Traoré’s greater rhetorical skill and more ideological self-presentation (whether one credits him as a substantive heir to Sankara or not) have made him cut a much larger figure than Goïta.

We can understand Traoré’s appeal through these comparisons; another way to get at his appeal is to think about the even starker contrasts with other world leaders. Many analysts have talked convincingly about ours as an age of gerontocracy - from Biden to Trump to Netanyahu to Putin, the world stage is dominated by men who are well over seventy, as well as by a slate of middle-aged, mostly male and mostly unimaginative (or outright failed and feckless) leaders. Not all leaders are old, of course, but Traoré stands out as not just young but also youthful, conveying a kind of energy and purpose and confidence that make him seem, to many, like a compelling alternative to the status quo. For supporters, Traoré’s appeal seems to be enhanced - not dented - when he declares democracy to be a failed and violent system. Traoré comes across to supporters as a truth teller and a problem solver, not someone caught up in fealty to (what can be seen as) Western-backed political projects and hollow, faux-universal norms. The tremendous challenges facing Traoré and Burkina Faso, namely insecurity and poverty, also add to supporters’ sympathy for and confidence in his rejection of criticism, his assertions of rapid progress on the security front, and his nationalist discourse.

SOMALIA

Al Jazeera reports on the scale of Somalia’s climate- and conflict-driven hunger crisis:

EUROPE

RUSSIA

Anybody wondering about the efficacy of Western sanctions on Russia may be interested to know that, according to Forbes Russia, the collective wealth amassed by Russian billionaires now stands at “a record $696.5 billion,” which is a whopping 11 percent increase over the past year. Most of these folks made their fortunes in the energy and mining sectors and rising prices in those markets fueled the increase. Apparently we can count them among the small number of true winners in the US/Israeli war on Iran.

UKRAINE

Russian drone strikes killed at least three people and wounded another ten in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro overnight. Local officials accused the Russians of deliberately targeting a residential part of the city.

Elsewhere, despite evidence that they’re not working (see above), the European Union moved forward on Thursday with its 20th tranche of Russia sanctions since the start of this war in 2022. The new sanctions focus on the banking and energy sectors and include measures targeting Russian crypto traders. The EU also gave formal approval to its €90 billion Ukraine loan, the first disbursements from which should start arriving in Kyiv in the coming weeks. These measures were made possible because the Hungarian and Slovakian governments finally stopped blocking them, following the reopening of the Druzhba oil pipeline earlier this week.

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AMERICAS

BOLIVIA

Bolivian Foreign Minister Fernando Aramayo met with his Chilean counterpart, Francisco Pérez Mackenna, in La Paz on Thursday. Well, technically then met on the border and then traveled to La Paz for discussions. This is noteworthy in that those two countries broke off diplomatic ties back in 1975 after they failed to negotiate an accord that would have given Bolivia a Pacific coastline, something it lost after the 1879-1883 War of the Pacific. The new right-wing governments in both countries are apparently interested in restoring relations, though regaining access to the ocean remains a Bolivian policy goal so it’s unclear how they’ll manage that.

MEXICO

According to the AP the Mexican government has been struggling to get its story straight regarding the apparent presence of two CIA agents at a drug raid in Chihuahua state on Sunday (both were killed in a subsequent car accident which is how their presence became public). Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has been publicly opposed to direct US involvement in counternarcotics operations, initially professed no knowledge of the raid or any potential CIA involvement and threatened punitive action against the state government. But Mexican officials have since told reporters that federal security forces were involved in the raid and that there was some interaction between the federal government and US officials regarding the operation.

This doesn’t mean the CIA personnel participated in the operation directly, nor does it mean that if they did participate Mexican authorities would have been aware of it. But this is a sensitive subject for Sheinbaum’s government given the CIA’s…oh, let’s say checkered record in Latin America and her stated opposition to US personnel being involved in Mexico in anything more than a training and advisory capacity.

HAITI

The UN’s special envoy for Haiti, Carlos Ruiz Massieu, told reporters on Thursday that Haiti’s nascent “Gang Suppression Force” is actually generating more international support than expected. That would put it well ahead of the multinational police force it’s supposed to replace sometime this year, which never met its goals either in terms of money or manpower. According to Ruiz Massieu countries have pledged manpower in excess of the 5500 personnel the GSF is expected to field, and the UN says it’s already received monetary pledges in excess of $200 million. In addition to greater levels of support the GSF will also have the power to arrest suspected gang members, which the previous force apparently did not have.

UNITED STATES

Finally, Drop Site has additional detail on those Ecuadorian fishermen whose boat was the target of a US drone strike back in January. In addition to being marked for death despite no discernible connection to drug trafficking, they are alleging serious mistreatment while in US custody:

As the fishermen made their way toward what they hoped was safety on the nearby blue boat, an aircraft hovered directly overhead. Nearing closer, they spotted blonde-haired men, armed to the teeth, dressed in camouflage uniforms, and yelling “hands-up” in English. Flores said they began to pray, convinced they were going to die.

Guns drawn, the men placed hoods over the fishermens’ heads, handcuffed them, and held them on the blue ship’s scorching metal deck for over 24 hours, blistering their skin. The Ecuadorian crew of La Negra Francisca Duarte II were surprised to find themselves detained following the attack. Like Mero’s husband, they had been cleared to proceed by Ecuadorian coast guard personnel just hours earlier at a checkpoint near the Galápagos.

The gunmen, issuing instructions through an interpreter, offered no explanation for why they were being apprehended, nor did they bother to inquire what had happened, as a rescue team might, or search their boat for evidence, as a counternarcotics operation would. All but one fisherman were denied medical attention, despite the severity of what they had just endured. Held for days, they were refused food and given only one bottle of water.

The following day, despite being in Ecuadorian waters near the Galapagos Islands, the kidnappers transported the fishermen roughly 900 nautical miles north, turning them over to El Salvador’s coast guard.

April 22, 1809: Napoleon’s army defeats the Austrians under Archduke Charles at the Battle of Eckmühl, in Bavaria. The victory is considered a turning point in the 1809 War of the Fifth Coalition, because it blunted Austria’s invasion of Bavaria, which had caught the French leader somewhat by surprise, and allowed Napoleon to go on the offensive by invading Austria.

April 22, 1948: In one of the last major engagements before the civil war in Mandatory Palestine turned into the Arab-Israeli War, the Jewish paramilitary organization Haganah captures the Arab sections of the port city of Haifa from the Palestinians. Haifa was one of six largely mixed cities that the Haganah captured between the start of April and the middle of May. By the end of May, between voluntary flight and involuntary expulsions the number of Arabs living in those cities collectively dropped from an estimated 177,000 to an estimated 13,000.

MIDDLE EAST

LEBANON

The Israeli military (IDF) killed at least five people across southern Lebanon on Wednesday, including another journalist. The reporter, Amal Khalil, worked for the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar. She was covering an earlier IDF strike on the village of at-Tiri when the IDF attacked a building in that same village, burying her in the rubble. Continued IDF strikes in the area prevented rescue workers from reaching the site for hours afterward. A second journalist caught in that same attack was recovered alive and is reportedly in serious condition. The IDF denies targeting journalists. Lebanese and Israeli delegations are scheduled to meet in Washington on Thursday, when the most immediate item on the agenda should be an extension of their current ten day “ceasefire.”

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TODAY IN HISTORY

April 21, 43 BCE: In the followup to April 14’s Battle of Forum Gallorum, Mark Antony’s army is again defeated by a Roman consular army led by Aulus Hirtius with the support of Octavian at the Battle of Mutina. Conveniently for Octavian, Hirtius died during the battle, and when his fellow consul Pansa died the following day of wounds suffered at Forum Gallorum, Octavian was left to claim sole credit for the victory. The newly empowered Octavian soon turned on the Senate and later allied with Antony under the framework of the Second Triumvirate.

April 21, 1526: An army led by a Timurid prince named Babur defeats the Lodi Sultanate at Panipat and lays the foundation for the Mughal dynasty.

April 21, 1802 (probably): A Saudi-Wahhabi army/mob sacks the city of Karbala.

MIDDLE EAST

LEBANON

Hezbollah fired a number of rockets and drones into northern Israel on Tuesday, calling it a response to multiple Israeli violations of the Lebanese ceasefire. The Israeli military (IDF) has continued to carry out attacks despite the ceasefire, claiming self-defense. It’s also continuing to demolish homes and entire villages along the Lebanese side of the border. It of course accused Hezbollah of violating the ceasefire on Tuesday and responded by carrying out a strike on the launcher that the group used to fire those rockets.

The IDF has punished two soldiers involved in vandalizing a statue of Jesus in a southern Lebanese village. As you may have seen, over the weekend an image circulated online of an Israeli soldier smashing the statue, which appeared to have been removed from a crucifix, with a sledgehammer. Both the hammerer and the photographer have been removed from combat duty and will be jailed for 30 days, while another six soldiers who observed the incident and did not stop it may also face some form of discipline. It is not an exaggeration to say that their punishment probably would have been lighter, or even nonexistent, if they’d taken that sledgehammer to a Lebanese person, but this sort of thing causes problems for the Israeli government’s Christian Zionist support base in the US so the IDF had to make a show of retribution.

ISRAEL-PALESTINE

Israeli settlers and soldiers killed two Palestinians, one a 14 year old, in the West Bank village of Al-Mughayyir on Tuesday. Local officials reported that Israeli soldiers entered the village and began shooting at a school, while Israeli officials said that an IDF reservist opened fire after rocks were thrown at his vehicle. Israeli forces also killed at least two people in separate incidents in Gaza.

Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” has reportedly been in talks with DP World, a logistics firm based in Dubai, about “managing supply chains and infrastructure projects” in Gaza. The firm would be tasked with overseeing the operations of many other companies in a reconstruction process that remains on hold while the board attempts to advance the Gaza “ceasefire” and in particular Hamas’s disarmament. In the meantime, The National reported on Tuesday that four of the 13 members of the Palestinian technocratic committee that is supposed to be managing Gaza’s day to day affairs have tried to resign over the fact that the Israeli government won’t even allow them to enter the territory much less take up their duties. The board’s Gaza envoy, Nickolay Mladenov, has rejected those resignations.

The Norwegian Refugee Council has published a new report on the role that sexual violence is playing in the displacement of Palestinians in the West Bank:

This report documents gender-based and sexualised violence perpetrated by Israeli settlers against Palestinians in Area C of the West Bank in contexts where Israeli forces were present and did not prevent or halt the violence, nor effectively investigate the abuses. In these circumstances, such violence is not occuring in isolation. It operates within a coercive environment that contributes to the forcible transfer of Palestinian communities.

The research results of this report found at least 16 cases of conflict-related sexual violence attributed to Israeli settlers and soldiers. These cases form part of a broader pattern of sexualised harassment, intimidation and humiliation, much of which remains underreported. Taken together, the evidence shows how sexualised violence is used to pressure communities, shape decisions about remaining or leaving their homes and land, and alter patterns of daily life.

Over 70 percent of displaced Palestinian families identify the threat of violence toward women and children, including sexual violence, as “the decisive reason” behind their decisions to relocate.

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

Donald Trump told CNBC on Tuesday that he may offer a “financial lifeline” to the UAE in the form of a currency swap. The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that Emirati officials had approached the Trump administration about a potential currency swap to cushion the economic blow of the Iran war. The conflict has impacted the UAE’s energy sector and has undercut Dubai’s image as a safe haven for business and travel. Implicit in their pitch is the idea that the US got them into this war and therefore it should bail them out if necessary, along with an apparent threat to start conducting business in the Chinese yuan rather than the US dollar. Right now the currency swap discussions are preliminary, but given that the UAE is fully paid up with the Trump Family one assumes that if they do ask for the swap they will get it.

IRAQ

Joel Wing at Musings on Iraq says that Kurdistan Democratic Party leaders (the Barzani family, essentially) are upset that the rival Patriotic Union of Kurdistan party outmaneuvered them to retain control of the Iraqi federal presidency. Although the KDP has been ascendent in recent years, PUK leader Bafel Talabani has been building relationships with smaller Kurdish parties and with key political figures in Baghdad that have strengthened his party’s position both at the federal level and within the Kurdistan Regional Government. The Barzanis, meanwhile, have largely ignored Baghdad and the election of PUK member Nizar Amedi as president, despite a KDP boycott of the vote, shows that they are losing influence in the Iraqi capital.

Elsewhere, the AP reported on Tuesday that the Iranian government has given its affiliated Iraqi militias greater autonomy in terms of carrying out attacks against US interests amid the war. This is similar to what they’ve done with regional military commanders inside Iran. It helps to explain why a large percentage of the attacks against Gulf Arab states have been traced to Iraqi, rather than Iranian, soil. It may also make Iraq the new locus for the conflict if the US-Iran ceasefire holds (more on that in a moment). The Gulf states and/or the US could decide to step up attacks on the militias under the assumption that it won’t threaten the ceasefire, which would likely prompt more attacks by the militias in return.

IRAN

Schrödinger’s peace talks are still off at the moment, though that could change quickly so if they’re back on by the time you read this I apologize. Despite a slight uptick in optimism on Monday evening, a full day later there’s still no indication that the Iranian government is willing to participate in another round of talks in Pakistan and consequently US Vice President JD Vance and the rest of his negotiating team remain in the US. A “US official” said something to The New York Times about the Iranians failing to respond to a “written proposal” outlining US negotiating positions, which struck me as a little odd initially but in hindsight looks like it was laying the groundwork for a major development later in the day.

That major development? Well, despite the lack of movement on talks it does not appear that the shooting war will be resuming anytime soon. Donald Trump announced via social media on Tuesday evening that he had acquiesced to what he said was a Pakistani government request to extend the soon-to-expire ceasefire indefinitely. This is supposed to allow time for the Iranians, who according to Trump are “seriously fractured,” to submit their own “unified proposal.” There’s no indication that the Iranians were working on a proposal but that NYT report I mentioned above makes more sense if you see it as the administration establishing a narrative basis for Trump’s announcement. There’s also no reason to actually believe that this was a “Pakistani request” but I digress. I don’t expect the Iranians to reject this extension but I will note that at time of writing—hours after Trump’s post—they still had not offered an official comment on it.

The US blockade of Iran will remain in place in the meantime. Iranian officials have been suggesting that they won’t resume negotiations until the blockade is lifted, so this presents something of a quandary in terms of how to move things forward. The US Navy is continuing to pursue and board suspected blockade runners, though an analysis of maritime traffic by Lloyd’s List suggests that at least some vessels are getting through. Even so, the possibility exists that the blockade (or rather blockades, including the Iranian hold on the Strait of Hormuz) will eventually spark a return to full-on war even if neither side necessarily intends that. The diplomatic track would appear to be in limbo for the time being. Maybe the US and Iranians could come to some sort of arrangement to ease their blockades (even unofficially) and open some space for negotiation that way. Something’s got to give, because both the economic upheaval and the logistical challenges of maintaining the US blockade mean that the current state of affairs can’t actually last indefinitely (even if Trump thinks it can).

In other items:

• It’s also conceivable that Trump’s ceasefire extension is fake and that he’s trying to set up a “surprise” attack, though it seems that the Iranians are fully aware of that possibility so the element of surprise probably isn’t there.

• The Trump administration added another 14 entries to its Iran sanctions list on Tuesday, targeting individuals and entities allegedly connected to Tehran’s arms procurement efforts.

• CNN reported on Monday that Trump’s Friday social media spree was not only false, it offended Iranian officials so much that it undermined diplomatic efforts to end the war. Even “some Trump officials” have “privately acknowledged to CNN that the president’s public commentary has been detrimental to talks, noting the sensitivity of the negotiations and the Iranians’ deep mistrust of the US.” The media narrative about Friday’s chaos has focused on supposed divides within Iranian leadership, which may well be overblown. But to the extent that there are such divides, Trump’s online blabbering would have only discredited the officials with whom the administration has been negotiating and strengthened the position of those officials who oppose talks.

ASIA

AFGHANISTAN

Shawn VanDiver, the founder of the organization AfghanEvac, told AFP on Tuesday that the Trump administration is offering Afghan nationals who aided the US military during the 2001-2021 Afghanistan war a choice between returning home or accepting resettlement in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Hundreds of Afghan nationals remain stranded in Qatar and the administration suspended the program under which they were supposed to be vetted and then given visas to relocate to the US after one participant in that program shot and killed two US National Guard personnel last year. It can probably be assumed that they will not opt to move to the DRC, which means returning them to Afghanistan despite the threat they may be facing from the Taliban authorities there.

MYANMAR

New Myanmar President Min ‌Aung Hlaing is inviting the country’s various rebel groups to engage in a new round of peace talks, giving them a deadline of July 31 to RSVP. Two of those groups, the Karen ​National Union and the Chin National Front, have already told him to get bent so this process is not off to a great start.

JAPAN

Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae lifted the country’s ban on exporting lethal military equipment on Tuesday, opening the door to foreign arms sales. That ban had been in place since 1976 and limited previous Japanese military deals to non-lethal materiel only. Now anything is fair game, though legally only 17 countries are currently eligible to purchase Japanese arms. The Japanese and Australian governments recently concluded a $7 billion deal under which Mitsubishi Heavy Industries will build several warships for the Australian Navy, so this rule change will clear the way for that arrangement and likely many more to come.

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AFRICA

SUDAN

A new United Nations report alleges that an element of the “Libyan National Army” known as the Subul al-Salam Battalion has “facilitated the transfer of recruits, including Colombian mercenaries, weapons and fuel” into Sudan on behalf of the Rapid Support Forces militant group. Subul al-Salam operates mainly in southeastern Libya’s Kufra district, positioned opposite Sudan’s northwestern border, and its backing helped the RSF drive the Sudanese military (SAF) out of the “triangle area” along the Egyptian, Libyan, and Chadian borders last year. Its control of “crucial facilities, including an airport” has made it an important node in the international network that’s been supporting the RSF.

NIGERIA

Nigerian authorities have charged six people in connection with the apparent coup plot that they foiled last year and are searching for a seventh suspect, former state minister Timipre Sylva. These six, including a retired army major general, are among 16 people who were arrested last year amid reports of an attempt to overthrow President Bola Tinubu. Nigerian officials revealed the plot earlier this year while announcing plans to bring treason and terrorism charges against the suspect.

EUROPE

RUSSIA

The European Council blacklisted two Russian entities, the media outlet Euromore and the “Foundation for the Support and ​Protection of the Rights of Compatriots Living ​Abroad,” on Tuesday. It’s accusing both of perpetuating Russian “disinformation.”

UKRAINE

Russian military commander Valery Gerasimov claimed on Tuesday that his forces have seized some 1700 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory so far this year. There’s no way to verify this and according to Reuters “pro-Ukrainian maps indicate Russia has taken around 600 square km this year.” I’m not sure what “pro-Ukrainian maps” they’re using. According to Gerasimov the advance has brought the Russian military closer to the “fortress belt” of cities in Ukraine’s Donetsk oblast. The Russians are already occupying parts of at least one of those cities, Kostiantynivka and they may be just a few kilometers from two others, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

The Ukrainian government reopened the Druzhba pipeline on Tuesday, restoring the flow of Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia (well, maybe—the Ukrainians apparently bombed a Russian pumping facility on the same pipeline on Tuesday and it remains to be seen how that might affect its operations). The pipeline has been shut down since a Russian attack damaged it in January, though outgoing Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán had accused the Ukrainians of deliberately cutting off the oil and was using that claim as a justification for blocking the first disbursement of the European Union’s two year, €90 billion loan to Kyiv. The timing of the pipeline’s reopening, just after Orbán’s election defeat, is curious, but regardless the disbursement is now expected to be made within the next two months and should cover around two-thirds of Ukraine’s financial requirements for the year.

ROMANIA

Romanian Prime Minister Ilje Bolojan is aiming to lead a minority government now that the Social Democratic Party (PSD) has quit his coalition. Moreover it doesn’t sound like he’s rethinking the austerity program that prompted the PSD to withdraw, arguing that his “reforms” are essential to securing billions of euros in EU funding. Romania technically isn’t due to hold another election until 2028, but Bolojan will have to present his new PSD-less cabinet to parliament for confirmation within 45 days and he’s likely to face at least one no-confidence motion before then. He’ll need to survive those votes to avoid a snap election—one that the far-right Alliance for Uniting ​Romanians would be expected to win handily.

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AMERICAS

MEXICO

The Intercept’s Nick Turse reports that two US embassy “staff members” who died in a car accident in Mexico’s Chihuahua state on Sunday were working for the Central Intelligence Agency:

The American personnel died in a vehicular crash in the mountains of the Sierra de Chihuahua following a drug raid, alongside two Mexican officials, including Román Oseguera Cervantes, the director of the Chihuahua State Investigation Agency.

U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ronald Johnson announced the deaths of the Americans on Sunday, referring to them in a post on X as “two members of staff from the United States Embassy.”

The State Department refused requests for additional information on the Americans’ activities or the agencies that employed them. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said during a Monday press conference that she was unaware of “any direct work between Chihuahua state and personnel from the U.S. embassy.”

Two U.S. government officials who spoke to The Intercept on the condition of anonymity said the CIA has been running covert operations in Mexico, working alongside vetted Mexican state-level police forces and other government agencies. The sources said the Americans died after a raid on a synthetic drug lab.

Sheinbaum’s government has now reportedly opened an investigation into the operation and the role these CIA personnel may or may not have played in it. Chihuahua state officials are insisting that the CIA personnel were not involved in the raid and only turned up at the raid site after the fact for some sort of “training” reason.

CUBA

Cuban Foreign Ministry official Alejandro García del Toro said on Monday that reasonably high level US and Cuban delegations met in Havana earlier this month to try to calm bilateral tensions. He didn’t say when this meeting took place but did say that it included assistant secretaries of state on the US side and deputy foreign ministers on the Cuban side. The Cuban government is trying to negotiate an end to the US energy embargo on the island.

UNITED STATES

The Trump administration set up an online portal earlier this week for companies pursuing refunds for tariffs they paid under the regime that the US Supreme Court struck down in February. Potentially over $160 billion could be refunded, with Walmart and Target in line to get the biggest payouts.

Finally, The Guardian has spoken with several survivors of the US military’s War on Speedboats:

A group of Ecuadorian fishers have described how they were attacked in a double drone strike and then detained at gunpoint by soldiers on a US-flagged patrol vessel, in a rare first-hand account by victims of Donald Trump’s militarized campaign against alleged drug-trafficking boats off South America.

At least 178 people have been killed in US military airstrikes in the Caribbean and Pacific since the offensive began in September, according to a tally by the Washington Office on Latin America (Wola).

The US has provided no evidence that any of the vessels were involved in drug trafficking, and legal experts and rights groups say the attacks amount to extrajudicial killings as they apparently target civilians who do not pose any immediate threat. The White House insists the killings are lawful.

The Don Maca, a 35-ton fishing vessel that worked with six smaller boats, was about 200 miles (320km) north-west of the Galápagos Islands, when it disappeared on 26 March. About a week earlier, it had departed from Manta, a port city in south-western Ecuador that has become a focal point in the country’s escalating “war on drugs”.

Its 20 crewmen, all from nearby communities including San Mateo, Santa Marianita and Jaramijó, insist they were fishing when they were attacked.

That US patrol boat deposited them in El Salvador, where officials in Donald Trump’s favorite Central American police state questioned them and then turned them over to UN personnel. They were eventually repatriated and none was ever charged with a crime, even though the US military was so certain that they were trafficking drugs that it tried to kill them.

April 20, 1752: A small battle south of the city (village at the time) of Shwebo marks the start of the Konbaung–Hanthawaddy War, which helped consolidate the modern nation of Myanmar. An “army” (of around 40 men) belonging to the nascent Konbaung dynasty, under its founder Alaungpaya, defeated a small military unit detached by the southern Hanthawaddy kingdom to pacify the region. The war ended with a Konbaung victory that reunited upper and lower (northern and southern) Myanmar (Burma if you prefer) under a Bamar ruling family and marked the final time that the Mon people of southern Myanmar were able to establish an independent state.

April 20, 1792: The French Assembly declares war against the Habsburg monarchy, kicking off nearly ten years of conflict sometimes called the “French Revolutionary Wars.” This conflict is perhaps more properly broken up into the wars of the First Coalition (1792-1797) and Second Coalition (1798-1802), referring to the international alliances that were arrayed against the French First Republic. The Republic emerged victorious from both wars. They’re distinguished from the five subsequent coalition wars (1805-1815) thanks to Napoleon, who brought the Republic to an end with his coronation as emperor in 1804.

INTERNATIONAL

Four candidates are vying to succeed the outgoing António Guterres as United Nations secretary-general:

• Former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet

• International Atomic Energy Agency director Rafael Grossi

• Secretary-General of UN Trade and Development Rebeca Grynspan

• Former Senegalese President Macky Sall

All four will go through a Q&A session before the UN General Assembly on Tuesday. As the AP notes, this is a far cry from the 13 people who contested the job in 2016 and the obvious conclusion to draw is that the gig is just not that appealing these days. It’s hard to pick a favorite, though the Trump administration (which is one of the main reasons why the job isn’t appealing anymore) is definitely opposed to Bachelet so she faces a pretty uphill climb.

MIDDLE EAST

SYRIA

Syrian security forces arrested a senior Bashar al-Assad-era official in an operation in Latakia province on Monday in which one security officer was killed. The target was Amer al-Hassan, the former head of state security in Latakia, who has been accused of a number of crimes connected to his service in that post. Elsewhere, the Israeli military (IDF) arrested two men in southern Syria’s Quneitra province. The continued IDF presence in Quneitra is a major concern for residents, and recent construction activity has reportedly raised fears that the Israelis are building a major military base in the province. That would indicate an intention to occupy the area indefinitely.

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TODAY IN HISTORY

April 18, 1775: Dozens of American Patriot riders fan out across the Massachusetts Bay colony to warn “Minutemen” militia fighters that a British army is approaching. The nighttime ride was crucial in alerting the militia and enabling their victories at the ensuing Battles of Lexington and Concord, the first major engagements of the American Revolution. The event gave birth to the legend of Paul Revere, the Boston silversmith and engraver who was one of the operation’s planners, and has been memorialized as “Paul Revere’s Ride” in the title of a famous 1861 poem by Henry Wadsworth Longfellow.

April 18, 1897: The Ottoman Empire declares war on Greece, marking the official start of the Greco-Turkish War (which had unofficially begun the previous month). Fought primarily over control of the island of Crete, which had repeatedly revolted against Ottoman rule, the war ended in mid-May with a decisive military victory for the larger and better armed Ottoman army. Then the European Great Powers intervened. The Treaty of Constantinople, negotiated primarily by the Powers, gave the Ottomans a few limited territorial conquests but forced the empire to return most of the Greek territory it had seized and to recognize Cretan autonomy. Under the guise of that autonomy, the island moved further and further into the Greek orbit, finally becoming part of Greece in the 1913 settlement to the First Balkan War.

April 18, 1938: Action Comics debuts with issue #1, published by National Allied Publications as an anthology meant to replicate and complement the success founder Malcolm Wheeler-Nicholson had achieved when he began publishing Detective Comics the previous December. The first story in the issue was called “Superman,” from writer Jerry Siegel and artist Joe Shuster, and marks the first appearance of their character by that name. The story was an instant success, arguably birthing the modern superhero genre (Detective Comics wouldn’t introduce its famous star, Batman, until the following year), and today Action Comics #1 is regarded as the most valuable comic book ever published (a near-mint copy sold for over $3 million in 2014).

April 19, 1775: Two military engagements between British regulars and American colonial militia in the Massachusetts towns of Lexington and Concord mark the start of the American Revolution. The British force succeeded in destroying some cannons and ammunition at Concord but was driven back into Boston by the militia. A large (15,000 man) militia army recruited from across New England then surrounded and besieged the city, which the British evacuated the following March.

April 19, 1943: The Warsaw Ghetto Uprising, the largest World War II Jewish revolt against Nazi rule, begins in occupied Poland. Nazi forces entered the Ghetto to effect another mass transfer of Jews to the Treblinka death camp, similar to the previous year’s Grossaktion Warsaw, but met with armed resistance. They began a month-long suppression campaign that included the systematic torching of homes and other buildings within the Ghetto. The uprising ended on May 16 with the Nazis having killed outright or transferred (to death camps) some 56,065 Jews according to official German figures.

MIDDLE EAST

LEBANON

Hundreds of thousands of displaced civilians have either returned to southern Lebanon or are considering it, amid the US-imposed ceasefire that took effect on Friday. Some have apparently already returned only to find that the Israeli military (IDF) has destroyed their homes and villages so thoroughly that it’s impossible for them to stay. The IDF has continued that destruction and has carried out several attacks despite the ceasefire, under its typical justification of “self-defense.” As it has done in Gaza, it’s facilitating continued violence by establishing a new “yellow line” in southern Lebanon. As in Gaza, the line demarcates what is essentially a free fire zone for Israeli soldiers, where anyone found on the wrong side of the line or even approaching the line can be treated ipso facto as a threat and thus a legitimate target. Also as in Gaza, the location of the line is opaque to civilians and may not even be completely fixed, making it a generalized excuse for killing.

A French soldier serving with the United Nations peacekeeping mission in Lebanon was killed and three other UN personnel were wounded in an attack in southern Lebanon on Saturday. The UN is assessing that a non-state actor was responsible, presumably Hezbollah, though it hasn’t determined that conclusively as yet. Hezbollah is denying involvement.

ISRAEL-PALESTINE

The IDF killed two people in separate “yellow line” incidents in Gaza on Saturday then gunned down another person in northern Gaza’s Jabalia area on Sunday. Their identities are unclear, but it does appear that two men whom Israeli soldiers gunned down in northern Gaza’s Shujaʿiyah area on Friday were working for UNICEF as water deliverymen.

According to Al Jazeera, satellite imagery shows the IDF expanding the military facilities on its side of Gaza’s “yellow line,” most prominently in the southern Rafah area. This is a curious thing to do if the Israeli government is prepared to withdraw from more territory in Gaza as the current “ceasefire” progresses. It would make more sense if the Israelis are planning to remain in those facilities for the long term—or indefinitely, even.

IRAN

It may or may not come as a surprise that pretty much everything Donald Trump asserted in his extended “peace is upon us” social media spree on Friday turns out to have been bullshit. As it happens Iranian officials had not suddenly given in to all of his demands. What a surprise. By Friday evening (in the US) it was clear that even the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, as announced by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi earlier in the day, was not actually happening, and on Saturday Iranian forces made that very clear by firing on at least two ships that were attempting to transit the strait. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the strait closed until the US lifts its naval blockade on Iran, basically resetting this whole situation back to where it had been prior to Araghchi’s announcement but with a bit more bad blood built up on both sides of the conflict. Then on Sunday the US Navy fired upon and detained a cargo vessel that apparently attempted to run the blockade, amid reports that it’s been planning to start boarding suspected Iranian vessels.

It’s hard to know what to make of a day in which the Iranian government made a major announcement that it rescinded within hours while the president of the United States regaled reporters with tales of Iranian concessions that were apparently never made. The Wall Street Journal suggested that the “Hormuz is open/no it’s not” drama reflected a breakdown of Iranian leadership. Araghchi, in this narrative, opened the strait on his own initiative only for the IRGC to overrule him and close it. The apparent incoherence seems to have sparked a fair amount of confusion within Iran. On Saturday Iran’s Supreme National Security Council offered an attempt at clarification, saying that the decision to open the strait was contingent on the US “observing the ceasefire on all fronts.” Trump wrecked that understanding by a) refusing to lift the blockade and b) spewing his nonsense on social media.

It’s still unclear whether Trump himself realized that his posts were bullshit (another WSJ piece argued that they were part of some sort of “negotiating strategy” somehow meant to pressure Iranian officials into making concessions) but he’s spent the past two days reacting like somebody who really believed that the Iranian government surrendered and then double crossed him. He’s now back to threatening the destruction of Iran’s civilian infrastructure, which if you recall is where we were 12 days ago. Even so he’s sending negotiators back to Pakistan on Monday for another attempt at diplomacy. At this point it’s unclear whether the Iranians will reciprocate. Iranian media reported on Sunday that Tehran has made no decision regarding those talks, and the previous day Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh told the AP that “maximalist” US demands were making further talks difficult.

“No decision” is not an outright no. But even if the Iranians do send a team to Pakistan, the chances of reaching a deal with an overmatched and disempowered US negotiating team that has to report to what appears to be a mentally compromised president seem pretty low. Maybe there’s still an opening to simply extend the ceasefire, but even that seems like a long shot given how much the process has broken down over the past three days.

ASIA

CHINA

The Diplomat’s Yi-Chuan Chiu outlines what the Chinese government is hoping to get out of the forthcoming Donald Trump-Xi Jinping summit on the subject of Taiwan:

At the summit, Beijing is expected to underscore that U.S. support of Taiwan will disrupt China-U.S. “strategic stability,” while cross-strait peace can be achieved without U.S. involvement. A grand deal over Taiwan or a fundamental shift of Washington’s One China policy is unlikely and would be difficult to sustain. However, Trump’s incoherent personal language over Taiwan or a delay of Taiwan-U.S. arms sales would constitute gains for Beijing.

Beijing’s main goal for the Trump-Xi summit would be to sustain the fragile stability in China-U.S. relations after both countries agreed on a truce in their trade war. Washington is so far interested in keeping the trade truce and has signaled that Trump will not seek confrontation during the summit.

However, China hopes that this cooperative tone will extend beyond trade. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi claimed in March that 2026 would be a “big year” for Sino-American relations and that “unnecessary disruptions” should be cleared. This partly explains why Beijing has been avoiding publicly denouncing the U.S. attack on Iran. Trump’s ambivalence over Taiwan presents an opening for Chinese officials to persuade the U.S. president that further U.S. support for Taiwan will disrupt their broader relationship.

JAPAN

Dozens of NATO representatives visited Tokyo on Thursday for talks on improving the bloc’s relationship with Japan. World Politics Review’s Elliot Waldman argues that both parties are being drawn together by concerns over their respective relationships with the United States:

For NATO, a closer relationship with Japan makes sense for a few reasons. For starters, the Trump administration has threatened to invade Greenland and is openly threatening to withdraw from the alliance. Technically, the U.S. president can’t pull out of NATO without approval from Congress. But as commander-in-chief of the U.S. Armed Forces, there is a lot that Trump can do to make America’s exit from NATO a de facto reality, such as withdrawing or reducing the U.S. troop presence in key theaters. In that context, seeking other partners with whom they could potentially share the burden of collective defense is a prudent call for NATO member states.

For Japan’s part, it has historically relied on the U.S. security umbrella for its defense. Given Trump’s recent behavior, however, officials in Tokyo are also worried about whether they can count on the U.S. to be a steadfast ally in the long term, even if they don’t say so publicly.

One major byproduct of these concerns is that European states and Japan are trying to expand their domestic arms industries. That could create new opportunities for joint investment and development projects.

(Foreign Exchanges readers can sign up for WPR’s free newsletter here and try out an all-access subscription free for 30 days, then $35 off—$77/year—after that.)

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AFRICA

SUDAN

The Sudanese military (SAF) announced on Saturday that it has opened an apparently major offensive across Sudan’s North and South Kordofan states. Initial operations focused on four areas in North Kordofan, and according to the military they “resulted in significant losses of life and equipment for the [Rapid Support Forces or RSF].” Fighting in the Kordofan region has generally emphasized drone strikes over ground action in recent months so this is a significant development even though it’s far too early to tell how it will play out.

Elsewhere, the US Treasury Department announced on Friday evening that it was blacklisting three people and two entities allegedly involved in hiring Colombian mercenaries for the RSF. All three individuals are Colombian nationals and the entities are both connected to a retired Colombian military officer.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO

The Congolese government and the M23 militant group announced a new agreement on Sunday, under which they will hold a prisoner exchange within ten days while also working together to facilitate greater humanitarian access to parts of the eastern DRC. The deal emerged out of a multi-day negotiating session in Switzerland, held under primarily Qatari mediation, during which the parties also reached a general agreement on establishing ceasefire monitoring mechanisms.

EUROPE

RUSSIA

The Trump administration extended its waiver on Russian oil sanctions for another 30 days on Friday, just two days after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed that waiver would not be renewed. It applies to any Russian oil that was loaded onto a tanker as of Friday and is of course another attempt at keeping global oil prices down even as the Iran war looks like it’s spinning up again.

UKRAINE

A Russian bombardment killed at least two people in the Ukrainian cities of Chernihiv and Kherson overnight. According to the Ukrainian military the Russians fired 236 drones in this barrage. On a related note the Ukrainians reportedly struck a drone manufacturing facility in the Russian city of Taganrog, sparking a fire and wounding at least three people. The extent of the damage is unclear.

BULGARIA

Bulgarian voters headed to the polls for their country’s eighth parliamentary election since April 2021 on Sunday, and early indications suggest that this one might actually be somewhat decisive. Exit polling gives the Progressive Bulgaria party, established by former President Rumen Radev after his resignation back in January, a bit over 38 percent support. That would be a far higher percentage than any single party has won over the previous seven elections, and while it might not work out to a sole parliamentary majority it could mean that Radev would only need the support of one additional party instead of having to form an unstable minority government or multi-party coalition.

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AMERICAS

ARGENTINA

El País reports that Argentine President Javier Milei’s economic miracle is starting to look somewhat less miraculous:

In a scenario constructed from the official statistics promoted by the government, Javier Milei’s Argentina is a happy world: poverty is falling to its lowest level in the last seven years, economic activity is reaching record highs, and fiscal balance is being maintained. But, simultaneously, more and more people say that their present situation doesn’t align with the successes touted by the far-right president, a disconnect pointed out not only by his detractors but even by figures of economic orthodoxy aligned with his policies. Are the official figures false? No, but they are averages that fail to capture an unequal and fragmented socioeconomic reality. And they coexist with other, also official, data, such as the rise in unemployment. Or the acceleration of inflation, whose containment had been Milei’s main achievement and which now remains above 3% per month. In this context, social discontent is spreading, fueled by corruption scandals: almost all opinion polls indicate that the president’s approval rating is at its lowest point.

Indeed, economic activity is at record highs, having risen 1.9% in the last year. However, this does not appear to translate into equivalent well-being. According to a report by the consulting firm Analytica, when the data series is adjusted for population — a more representative metric of well-being — current levels are 6.8% below the peak reached in 2011. At best, activity levels per capita have returned to the pre-pandemic average, the report notes.

PERU

Peruvian officials have counted 93 percent of the votes cast in last Sunday’s/Monday’s presidential election, but they may not be ready to announce official results until the middle of next month. That’s going to be a tight turnaround given that the runoff is scheduled for June 7. Perennial candidate Keiko Fujimori’s place in that contest seems to be assured, as she’s “winning” the first round with around 17 percent of the vote. But the race for second place is very tight, with leftist Roberto Sánchez now around 13,600 votes ahead of right winger Rafael López Aliaga. Given the narrow margin, the race could come down to a review of thousands of challenged ballots—hence the delay.

NICARAGUA

The US State Department blacklisted Nicaraguan Vice Minister of the Interior Luis Roberto Cañas Novoa on Saturday, over alleged human rights abuses. He’ll be barred from entering the US.

UNITED STATES

Finally, TomDispatch’s Steve Fraser sees in Donald Trump the “perfect amalgam” of US imperialism abroad and repression at home:

Democracy and civil liberties, thought to make up the essence of the homeland’s civic religion, can’t survive the imperial drive. Today, violations of the most basic rights to free speech, privacy, a fair trial, and the right to vote are appalling and commonplace. Immigrants, often here because they couldn’t survive the ravages of American capitalism in their homelands, are treated like outlaws. The most basic constitutional requirement — the exclusive right of Congress to declare war — is ignored with impunity (and had been long before Trump took over). The imperial state, the surveillance state, and the authoritarian state are hollowing out what’s left of the democratic state.

Imperialism does massive and fatal damage abroad. The wars in Gaza and Iran are the latest bloodbaths for all to see. Less visible are the wages of imperialism at home. An equation might clarify the historical record: The Imperium = land, labor, resources, power, and wealth. The Homeland = cultural brutalization, dispossession, fear, misogyny, racism, repression, slavery, tyranny, and war.

Donald Trump turns out to be a purveyor of both imperialism (notwithstanding his promises to “stop wars” and refrain from “forever wars”) and its toxic outcome. Conjoined in his person is the perfect amalgam of America’s imperial history of aggressive aggrandizement and the ubermensch cruelty that history has instilled in the American psyche.

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TODAY IN HISTORY

April 17, 1895: Representatives of the Empire of Japan and China’s Qing Dynasty sign the Treaty of Shimonoseki, ending the First Sino-Japanese War. Reflecting the decisive Japanese victory, the treaty obliged the Qing to renounce Chinese claims on Korea, cede islands in the Taiwan Strait (including Taiwan itself) to Japan, pay reparations, and establish “most favored nation” trade status with Japan. European powers France, Germany, and Russia intervened to force Japan to give up control of the Liaodong Peninsula, which had been another stipulation of the treaty. The newly independent Korea quickly fell under Japan’s sway, which brought the Japanese into Russia’s orbit and led to the 1904-1905 Russo-Japanese War.

April 17, 1975: The Cambodian Civil War ends with the Khmer Rouge capture of Phnom Penh and the ouster of the short-lived Khmer Republic. The Khmer Rouge briefly restored the Cambodian monarchy before embarking on one of the most brutal genocides in history, in which upwards of 25 percent of the Cambodian population was killed through a mix of mass executions, forced labor, and other more indirect forms of violence. That genocide finally ended when Vietnam invaded Cambodia in 1979 and removed the Khmer Rouge from power.

MIDDLE EAST

LEBANON

Lebanon’s ten day ceasefire took effect at midnight on Friday and the most immediate result appears to be a stream of displaced people returning to their homes in the southern part of the country despite a continued Israeli occupation and against warnings from Lebanese authorities. Al Jazeera is reporting “tens of thousands” of returnees, though how many will be able to stay once they’ve assessed the destruction that the Israeli military (IDF) has wrought on their towns and villages remains to be seen. But the pull home is so strong that they’re not only ignoring the continued IDF threat, they’re undertaking the difficult task of crossing the main coastal bridge that the IDF had damaged in its attempt to cut southern Lebanon off from the rest of the country.

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